3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Starting with the Wood Memorial ... do not trust anyones speed figure for this race. Do not trust anyones pace figure for this race.

The_Fat_Man is no longer posting at Derby Trail - and one has to wonder if he's currently employed as the track superintendent at Aqueduct. In the first nine races today at AQU - all of which around one-turn - the leader after a half mile failed to win eight of them. Horses leading more than halfway through dirt races - often have a lot more success than that.

So far this Aqueduct meet - there have been just four dirt routes. Here is a recap of how the pacesetter has performed in each ....

* AQU Dirt Route #1 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Chairman Now
Previous Beyer: 82
Fractions: 25.22 - 50.60 - 1:15.37 (all uncontested)
Finish: 3rd at 7/5 odds in field of 5.

* AQU Dirt Route #2 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Understatement
Previous Beyer: 101
Fractions: 24.75 - 49.47 - 1:13.48 (all uncontested)
Finish: 3rd at 5/2 beaten double digit lengths in field of 5.

* AQU Dirt Route #3 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: All In No Outs
Previous Beyer: 82
Fractions: 26.29 - 53.33 - 1:18.85
Result: 2nd at 7/5 odds.

* AQU Dirt Route #4 - Dist 9f
Pace call leader: Uncle Mo
Previous Beyer: 89
Fractions: 23.49 - 47.98 - 1:12.28
Result: 3rd at 1/9 odds.


Uncle Mo's performance today looked incredibly pathetic. The pace LOOKED very slow ... but has to considered a lot faster than people think given the info posted above.

I'm of the opinion that a lack of fitness got Uncle Mo beat over that racetrack today. The Timely Writer was both a glorified workout and a 2-furlong horse race... Uncle Mo was truly running 1st off of the layoff today in my opinion. On a glib dirt track playing kind to speed (most all of them do) Uncle Mo wouldn't have got as dead-tired as he did. His lack of fitness was simply exposed today on what was a VERY demanding dirt track for front-end speed types going long.


As for the Santa Anita Derby .... the Beyer will come back 4 points higher than it will for First Dude's ALW win. It was a pretty damn decent race IMO.

Because Comma To The Top ran 4 points faster than First Dude - I won't knock him ... but I'm now in agreement with his connections to pass on the KY Derby. Perhaps they might look at a race like the Preakness (First Dude was a close 2nd in last years Preakness) - or just have a fresh horse for the summer. That was a true pace today - and he can stay 9fs no problems.

Midnight Interlude won a MSW race easily by 8+ lengths last out. He went 25 Beyer points faster than the days other two-turn route... however, a variant split resulted in him only getting a Beyer about 10 points faster. He proved himself a nice prospect today.

The 3rd and 4th place horses will find themselves on the earnings bubble - but both are capable of rating - and both would be legit candidates to get a piece at a price in the KY Derby.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 3.75%

[Indian Charlie]

What about Glickman?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

What about Glickman?

Any horse connected to Pippy is a danger!

[GPK]

Your obvious bias and love for Joe Vann is unbecoming of you.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Any horse connected to Pippy is a danger!

Castro thought he could have won the Bay Shore

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Castro thought he could have won the Bay Shore

I always thought Castro was an idiot.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I always thought Castro was an idiot.

Me too, and Ive never even met him.

I didn't like his ride on Glickman today, and neither did Pippy.

[philcski]

BRING BACK THE FAT MAN!

I need my Fat Charts

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)

The Rest: 3.75%

DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar

[Indian Charlie]

Hindsight.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar

I'm sure he is up all night trying to decide whether he should give a horse a 1% chance or a 0.8% chance.

[justindew]

I think I found The_Fat_Man. I was watching a replay of the Wood on YouTube, and I noticed this pearl in the comments section:

Uncle Mo has PLENTY of wins. I'm glad another horse had a chance to win. That said, I hope Mo and all the other horses came out sound and will try their best in the Derby.

Case closed. Glad I could help.

[trackrat59]

Looking at this list I just had a thought. Going by names alone, I hope Pants On Fire wins the Derby. Then wins the Preakness and then on to the Triple Crown. This would bring just as much attention to racing as Z did, if not more.

Can you just imagine the names of his offspring? OY!

Also, going into the Belmont someone would come up with a song, you know, like Pants On The Ground. It would be on YouTube and then a hit from there. Imagine the fun.

Pants would even get his own Blog and Facebook page.

Oh gosh, get this one. A big ad campaign like Know Mo. Only this one would be No Pants.

You see the potential here?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by trackrat59

Looking at this list I just had a thought. Going by names alone, I hope Pants On Fire wins the Derby. Then wins the Preakness and then on to the Triple Crown. This would bring just as much attention to racing as Z did, if not more.

Can you just imagine the names of his offspring? OY!

Also, going into the Belmont someone would come up with a song, you know, like Pants On The Ground. It would be on YouTube and then a hit from there. Imagine the fun.

Pants would even get his own Blog and Facebook page.

Oh gosh, get this one. A big add campaign like Know Mo. Only this one would be No Pants.

You see the potential here?

I prefer a big subtract campaign, but to each his own

[trackrat59]

fixed, thanks

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hindsight.

Hindsight? Well, yes. How else do you resolve arguments than by looking at results? How do you learn anything other than by seeing what happens to your predictions? (and yes, I made my own prediction at the time of DrugS's earlier posts.)

The argument was about how much impact under-the-radar horses (those in DrugS's "Rest" group) would have on the Derby. I used 10 years of 'hindsight', aka data, to argue that those off-the-list horses would turn out to have a much greater chance of winning the Derby than the 5% chance that DrugS estimated. I suggested 10-15% as a more realistic figure, based on studying 10 years of KD Future Wager data. Now, less than a month later, DrugS's own figures put it at about 19%.

Please take a look at our posts in that thread:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41384

I respect DrugS's capping, or I wouldn't have bothered making such detailed posts in that thread. It takes some work to put together a coherent line like he's been doing. I'm sure his overall ability to rate the relative chances of the top 25-30 contenders is far better than anything I could come up with. My only issue with the first list was his significantly underestimating the chances of new contenders emerging from the pack. Now his revised line seems to confirm my position.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

The Factor is dubious going 10f's with his running style in the Derby, but he's the only horse maintaining any resemblance of consistent form that is triple digit figure worthy. Crazy year.

[parsixfarms]

In light of yesterday's developments and Pletcher's comments after the Florida Derby, should odds be posted on R Heat Lightning (not that I would fancy her chances)?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

My only issue with the first list was his significantly underestimating the chances of new contenders emerging from the pack. Now his revised line seems to confirm my position.

--Dunbar

Well - the percentages change as the information changes.

Lets look at the recent devlopments ...

* The Louisianna Derby was won by Pants on Fire with Nehro 2nd - one would have been about 30/1 if uncoupled - the other was that type of price.

* The Sunland Derby was won by a horse who ran for a Maiden Claiming tag recently at the current SA meet.

* The Spiral was won by a true synthetic horse who still has never run on dirt.

* The horse who unquestionably ran the best race in the Fla Derby - was trading at 250/1 odds on Betfair.

* The Ill Derby was pretty Ill.

* The SA Derby saw two morning line favorites scratch due to physical setbacks. The winner, recently won a maiden race.

* The Wood Memorial saw a 1/9 favorite go down in defeat.

* Some highly regarded horses have fallen to injuries.

Lets say the Arkansas Derby is run like truly the definitive Derby prep race - and two horses step up and run great races. A strong performance by The Factor - and just his precense itself in the KY Derby badly hurts Sheckleford's Derby chances. Couple that with a physical setback for Midnight Interlude - and all of a sudden you could be back at 5% again - or possibly even under.

It's a lot easier and less tricky doing these fair value % lines for actual races than it is for this - that's for sure. You're dealing with lightly raced 3yo's - at a time when trainers don't want to run their good horses. Hell, they don't even want to put the good 3yo's through halfway brisk workouts. I think Uncle Mo has what - two easy workouts of 5f - and none beyond that this year.

Certainly though - your opinion proved right so far.

[Linny]

Good analysis of the AQU main track at 2 turns. Also, the horses were running into a strong headwind when they turned for home.
That said, Mo should have been so far superior to that field that he should have won on class. I think he's been handled with kid gloves and not made tough by hard fought races. Going into the Derby I'd prefer a colt with a few hard fought losses that a glowing record of trouncing over matched fields. Mo however didn't run what I would call a hard fought loss on Sat. He had nothing and offered nothing.