Current Derby Odds from Betfair (Top 8 Choices)

[justindew]

Dialed In 3.2/1
Uncle Mo 5/1
Dance City 9/1
Nehro 11.5/1
Archarcharch 13.5/1
JP's Gusto 14/1
Toby's Corner 14/1
Mucho Macho Man 14.5/1

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Dialed In 3.2/1
Uncle Mo 5/1
Dance City 9/1
Nehro 11.5/1
Archarcharch 13.5/1
JP's Gusto 14/1
Toby's Corner 14/1
Mucho Macho Man 14.5/1

9/1 third choice on a horse who needs another $100K in earnings to even sniff the starting gate?

[jms62]

When are people going to throw in the towel on JP's Gusto

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

9/1 third choice on a horse who needs another $100K in earnings to even sniff the starting gate?

I'm not a betfair expert but I think the first post is misleading, there is $21 offered (out of 104k) and he is 7.5/1

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

I'm not a betfair expert but I think the first post is misleading, there is $21 offered (out of 104k) and he is 7.5/1

Ok, I know next to nothing about betfair, but basically then it's not like they're pounding this horse down to 7/1 for a race that 1.) He won't get into 2.) He'd be 40/1 in that day?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Dialed In 3.2/1
Uncle Mo 5/1
Dance City 9/1
Nehro 11.5/1
Archarcharch 13.5/1
JP's Gusto 14/1
Toby's Corner 14/1
Mucho Macho Man 14.5/1

This is very incorrect. The real estimated odds for these 8 based on Betfair:

Dialed In 4.6/1
Uncle Mo 7.9/1
Toby's Corner 15/1
Nehro 16/1
Archarcharch 18/1
Mucho Macho Man 22/1
Dance City 45/1
JP's Gusto (no market)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is very incorrect. The real estimated odds for these 8 based on Betfair:

Dialed In 4.6/1
Uncle Mo 7.9/1
Toby's Corner 15/1
Nehro 16/1
Archarcharch 18/1
Mucho Macho Man 22/1
Dance City 45/1
JP's Gusto (no market)

I thought you are suppose to look at the "back" part, not the Lay?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There is absolutely no liquidity in that market at Betfair right now - and there is nothing going down on the lay side of serious note other than $32 against Toby's Corner at 17.5-to-1 odds.

In terms of what you can get right now if you're looking to back a horse ...

Dialed In: 3.2-to-1 for $817
Uncle Mo: 5.2-to-1 for $237
and so on.

It's stupid to fool around in a market like that - in order to get real value there typically has to be liquidity - which causes everything to tighten.

[justindew]

Yeah, it's definitely not a stable wagering pool at the moment. The odds have changed on a number of the choices since I posted this a few hours ago. Dance City is up to 13-1 now.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'll make him 14/1

[justindew]

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

[randallscott35]

5701 Uncle Mo +625
5702 Dialed In +405
5703 The Factor +2550
5704 Much Macho Man +1215
5705 Soldat +2250
5706 Stay Thirsty +2050
5707 Jaycito +2550
5708 Santiva +4550
5709 Tobys Corner +1615
5711 Sway Away
5714 Brethren
5715 Decisive Moment +4550
5716 Pants on fire +3250
5717 Animal Kingdom +4050
5718 Archarcharch +1415
5719 Twice the appeal +5250
5720 Midnight Interlude +1615
5721 Comma to the top +5250
5723 Nehro +1215
5725 Alternation
5726 Shackleford +2550
5727 Brilliant Speed +3050

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

Great run yesterday from him but that is what happens when people would rather run in allowance races that pay 0 instead of trying a (Fl Derby or other race) where u could have made more cash

[Mike]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

Makes Cal Nation all the more interesting in the Jerome next Saturday

The Derby Fever hunt may not be over, as The Jerome and Coolmore Lexington are both shaping up as interesting races, if not necessarily acting as a Derby prep.

The Jerome has , maybe, Rattlesnake Bridge, and possibly Astrology, along with Cal Nation. The Lexington has Prime Cut, Casino Host and Jaycito

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Mike

Makes Cal Nation all the more interesting in the Jerome next Saturday

These are all developing young horses - without a lot of established form.

You can say that Cal Nation was "flattered" because the horse who narrowly beat him ran very well yesterday - however, the horse who was 3rd in that race was badly outrun next time out.

I do put emphasis on that kind of stuff in certain situations - but not as much in regard to just one other performance from a lightly raced 3yo.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I thought you are suppose to look at the "back" part, not the Lay?

No...

You should look at the "mid" price. If there's relatively equal money on both sides of the market, like in the case of Nehro, the trading price will end up very close to the middle of the tightest bid/offer (in this case 12.5/19, so 16.) In the situation where there's a lot of money on the offer ("back") side, like in the case of Dialed In ($817 at 4.2 to back versus only $14 at 5.8 to lay and $14 at 6.0 to lay) it's a certainty that the price will trend higher- here, very very likely to be at 5.8+; the reverse is true if there's a lot of money on the bid ("lay") side.

In this specific market, the "back" side is simply where the market makers are seeding the market. It is far lower than what really will trade.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

No...

You should look at the "mid" price. If there's relatively equal money on both sides of the market, like in the case of Nehro, the trading price will end up very close to the middle of the tightest bid/offer (in this case 12.5/19, so 16.) In the situation where there's a lot of money on the offer ("back") side, like in the case of Dialed In ($817 at 4.2 to back versus only $14 at 5.8 to lay and $14 at 6.0 to lay) it's a certainty that the price will trend higher- here, very very likely to be at 5.8+; the reverse is true if there's a lot of money on the bid ("lay") side.

In this specific market, the "back" side is simply where the market makers are seeding the market. It is far lower than what really will trade.

Exactly. Which is why 13/1 on Dance City isn't realistic. Regardless, if you want a bet ON Dance City to be accepted now, you will only get 13/1.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These are all developing young horses - without a lot of established form.

You can say that Cal Nation was "flattered" because the horse who narrowly beat him ran very well yesterday - however, the horse who was 3rd in that race was badly outrun next time out.

I do put emphasis on that kind of stuff in certain situations - but not as much in regard to just one other performance from a lightly raced 3yo.

Thanks for the response, seems a good lesson, seriously

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's too bad that Dance City has little chance of making the Derby field. I'd certainly rate his effort yesterday as among the Top 10 or 15 performances on the trail this year.

Top 10 or 15? You have high standards. I couldn't even come up with 6 "top" performances on the trail this year.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Top 10 or 15? You have high standards. I couldn't even come up with 6 "top" performances on the trail this year.

"Top" is a relative term. And yes you could.

Premier Pegasus' San Felipe
The Factor's San Vicente
The Factor's Rebel
Dialed In's Florida Derby
Shackleford's Florida Derby
Dialed In's Holy Bull (considering it was his 2nd start)
(Maybe) Sway Away's San Vicente

That's 7 that I would rate as "more impressive" than Dance City..