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Old 05-02-2011, 07:12 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
  
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Default CONTEST: The 'Top 5' Thread -- Trifecta Box
As discussed today on ATR, with serious preparations complete, attention turns to individual decision-making regarding contenders and bet structures. As was the case last year when tabbing Paddy O'Prado, I had to declare a selection a week ago for the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide. I'm 'married' to Shackleford as my top choice for Saturday, and am very comfortable with building my plays around him.

Earlier today I worked to rank the 20 into groups of 5, and the group on top feel to me most likely to feature a winner and board hitters. Archarcharch (#2) and Toby's Corner (#3) were with Shackleford on my XpressBet Top 4, but here I have moved Dialed In to #4 replacing Pants On Fire. Animal Kingdom's Saturday work flagged him as an outstanding bottom wrung trifecta/superfecta candidate.

Please share your Top 5 candidates... We'll have a 5 horse exacta and trifecta box contest that I'll set up post-draw!

DERBY -- FINAL RANKINGS

1. Shackleford
2. Soldat
3. Dialed In
4. Midnight Interlude
5. Mucho Macho Man
--------------------------
6. Animal Kingdom
7. Archarcharch
8. Pants On Fire
9. Twinspired
10. Brilliant Speed
--------------------------
11. Nehro
12. Master of Hounds
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Uncle Mo
15. Santiva
--------------------------
16. Twice the Appeal
17. Watch Me Go
18. Comma to the Top
19. Decisive Moment
20. Derby Kitten
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Last edited by Kasept : 05-06-2011 at 07:24 AM.
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  #2  
Old 05-02-2011, 07:25 PM
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Lava Lava is offline
Randwyck
  
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1. Uncle Mo
2. Archarcharch
3. Animal Kingdom
4. Dialed In
5. Master of Hounds
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  #3  
Old 05-02-2011, 07:27 PM
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3kings 3kings is offline
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Archarcharch
Toby's Corner
Dialed In
Shackleford
Pants on Fire
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  #4  
Old 05-02-2011, 07:39 PM
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my miss storm cat my miss storm cat is offline
Saratoga
  
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Soldat
Stay Thirsty
Twinspired
Archarcharch
Decisive Moment
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  #5  
Old 05-02-2011, 07:41 PM
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lemoncrush lemoncrush is offline
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Right now, with a dry,fast track:

1) Dialed In
2) Shackleford
3)Animal Kingdom
4) Nehro
5) Arch Arch Arch
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Old 05-02-2011, 07:42 PM
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keithting keithting is offline
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Here goes....

1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Toby's Corner Archarcharch
3. Twinspired
4. Animal Kingdom
5. Pants On Fire
Last edited by keithting : 05-03-2011 at 09:49 PM. Reason: Toby's Corner scratched
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  #7  
Old 05-02-2011, 07:46 PM
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Hickory Hill Hoff Hickory Hill Hoff is offline
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1. Midnight Interlude
2. Dialed In
3. Uncle Mo
4. Stay Thirsty
5. Master of Hounds
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Last edited by Hickory Hill Hoff : 05-02-2011 at 09:51 PM.
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Old 05-02-2011, 07:51 PM
Habersham000 Habersham000 is offline
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Steve, What are your thoughts on Shackleford's work a couple days ago?
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  #9  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:02 PM
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miraja2 miraja2 is offline
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Long way to go still, but at this point I'm with Byk on the Shackleford bandwagon and am leaning toward making a Shackleford/Mo exacta box my largest wager on the race.

1. Shackleford
2. Uncle Mo
3. Archarcharch
4. Dialed In
5. Mucho Macho Man
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  #10  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:05 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Toby's Corner
Archarcharch
Uncle Mo
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man
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  #11  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:23 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habersham000 View Post
Steve, What are your thoughts on Shackleford's work a couple days ago?
It was an impressive effort visually, though many note that any worker under Tammy will go quick. I hope it wasn't too fast in the way a fast work can trigger a horse over the top. There are some detractors nitpicking the work for a couple reasons including him leaning on the right reign slightly late (Gary Young), and breathing with a bit of a raspiness (Mig and Caton Brader). But when asked, Dale and Tammy both told me independantly Saturday night that neither contention was accurate.

He certainly seems to have come out of it well, and galloped strongy again this morning.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #12  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:34 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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1: Soldat
2: Archarcharch
3: Dialed In
4: Santiva
5: Decisive Moment
Last edited by Scav : 05-03-2011 at 10:12 AM.
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  #13  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:44 PM
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somerfrost somerfrost is offline
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1. Archarcharch
2. Dialed In
3. Master of Hounds
4. Shackleford
5. Pants on Fire
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  #14  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:48 PM
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justindew justindew is offline
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(Edited to follow Steve's very clear rules....)

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Toby's Corner
5. Santiva
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  #15  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:49 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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I need Archarcharch for a nice score in the futures. But, with seemingly everyone liking him, he's doomed.
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  #16  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:50 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew View Post
1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Comma to the Top
4. Shackleford
5. Toby's Corner
5a. Santiva
Maybe I spoke too soon.
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  #17  
Old 05-02-2011, 08:55 PM
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pweizer pweizer is offline
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1. Archarcharch
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Soldat
4. Dialed In
5. Brilliant Speed

Paul
Last edited by pweizer : 05-03-2011 at 09:42 PM.
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  #18  
Old 05-02-2011, 09:08 PM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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1. Archarcharch
2. Dialed In
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Nehro
5. Brilliant Speed
Last edited by Sightseek : 05-03-2011 at 09:42 AM.
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  #19  
Old 05-02-2011, 09:09 PM
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Arletta Arletta is offline
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1) Uncle Mo
2) Shackleford
3) Dialed In
4) Toby's Corner
5) Aminal Kingdom
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  #20  
Old 05-02-2011, 09:13 PM
PatCummings PatCummings is offline
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1. Toby's Corner
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Brilliant Speed
5. Twice The Appeal
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