5/6: Churchill Downs (KY Oaks Day/1st-11th)

[Kasept]

Two weeks at Churchill has passed by rapidly, and a great weekend of racing is upon us. Hope you have enjoyed At the Races coverage of Oaks-Derby 137, and feel prepared to attack one of the more challenging two days of handicapping and wagering of the year... Steve Crist, Rich Migliore, Mike Welsch, Gus Alonso, Nick Tammaro, Rick Hammerle, Alex Waldrop and others join me today to put the final touches on our 2 weeks in the 'ville. Good luck and enjoy Oaks-Derby!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


SCR/CHG'S (EARLY)


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Expresso Run 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Empress of Gold 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Virtously 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Tropic of Aquarius 5-2 3rd


2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Minister Colin 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Chalice 10-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #9 Our Noble Heart 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Gold Trader 4-1 5th


3rd: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Juanita 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #4 Goodnessgraciousme 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Golden Phoenix 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Silent Spin 6-1 7th


4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Turallure 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Deal Making 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Pickapocket 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Guys Reward 4-1 WON ($6.60)


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Temptation Bound 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Garnet Crystal 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Might 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #2 Kit Carson 8-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7-10
3: 4-5-6
4: 1-3-4-8-9
5: 2-3-5-8-9

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

.50 P4 (10-6-9-9) Paid $202.10


6th: 26th La Troienne (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Unrivaled Belle 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Blind Luck 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Quiet Giant 10-1 6th
Super Add: #4 All Due Respect 6-1 3rd


7th: 26th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Diva Ash 8-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Sassy's Dream 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Smart Sting 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 My Redbyrd 8-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-8-9
5: 2-3-5-8-9-10
6: 7-8
7: 2-6-8

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 Pick 4 (9/9/2,7/2) Paid $93.85


8th: 56th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Victoria's Wildcat 12-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #3 Pomeroys Pistol 3-1 -
Exotics Use: #1 Arienza 4-1 -
Super Add: #2 Home Sweet Aspen 8-1 2nd


9th: 8th Alysheba (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Thoroughly crazy group..

Best Value: #1 Wise Dan 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Caracortado 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Mission Impazible 7-2 7th
Super Add: #11 Regal Ransom 4-1 2nd


10th: 20th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

That's quite an embarrassing morning line on Swagger Jack..

Best Value: #10 Swagger Jack 50-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Close Ally 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #13 Air Support 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Banned 3-1 WON ($8.00)


11th: 137th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5, Oaks-Derby Dbl, Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3)

Great group of 3yo fillies was made into a terrific betting race with R Heat Lightening exiting the picture. While the last two weeks has shown the lineup in a mostly positive light, nothing has been more impressive visually than Joyful Victory lugging Larry Jones' large carcass around the oval daily at a 2 min. clip. It's impossible not to think of Proud Spell while watching her train these 2 weeks. She's not as talented, but she's certainly ready for a premium effort. Is it good enough to win?

The Fair Grounds Oaks fillies have impressed me daily. Daisy Devine (McKeever) and St. John's River (Leggio) are 20-1 and 30-1 respectively, and should both outrun their odds. The poor draw for Leggio's girl (#13) is a downer. McKeever's filly, bought for $4,500, needs to make up 3-5 lengths to win against 3-4 of these, so she may be best employed as an exotic lynchpin.

We haven't had the luxury of seeing Zazu much locally, but what I got to see was pretty eye-opening. If she runs back to the last, she's a prime win player. And of course speaking of running back to her last, Plum Pretty will factor if the Sunland Oaks is reprized. She's looked good here and was particularly good over the wet going.

Summer Soiree was a horse I came in not liking, but she has been sharp acting in the a.m., and was nearly impossible for the girl to pull up after her gallop Wednesday. Literally. It took the female exercise rider a quarter mile to stop the Team Valor missy. Kathmanblu has done nothing wrong at all these 2 weeks, and kept wheeling away from the gap today as Walter Blum tried to take her home.

Bouquet Booth has been much better than her Margo barnmate Street Storm, and I'm surprised in fact that Street Storm was entered here. Haven't seen much of the Bobby Flay acquisition Her Smile on track, but schooling in the paddock she showed herself to be a substantial, rangy gal. Todd Pletcher said she seems like a real nice filly so far.

Speedy Smithwick's Suave Voir Faire may be outclassed on paper, but she is a big powerful looking thing that moves like she is willing to bully foes. Holy Heavens and Lilacs and Lace have been adequate, but haven't called attention to themselves the way you like a horse to in the proceedings. Best of luck! Should be a very fun Oaks!

Most Likely: #1 Joyful Victory 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Zazu 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Summer Soiree 5-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Daisy Devine 20-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #13 St. John's River 30-1 2nd


<$50 Oaks Derby Double Play:

KO: 1-3-4-6-9-12-13
KD: 8-13-14-15-16-17

7x6 = $42

Paid $172.80


<$50 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Play:

KO: 1-3-6-9
WR: 4-5-9-10
KD: 8-13-14-15-16-17

4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-8
8: 1-3-8
9: 1-2
10: 1-3-10-13
11: 1-3-6

2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4-8
9: 1-2
10: 1-2-3-10-13
11: 1-3-6

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75


12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Air Guitar 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 How She Rolls 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Cascadilla Falls 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Spoils 5-1 7th


Good luck!
Steve

[Arletta]

Fantastic card today Steve. Almost a "mini" Breeder's Cup.
Thanks for all you do and for all you've given us, especially the insight to a behind the scenes look at whats going on as well as some opportunities to cash in on some sticks or two along the way... Best of luck of course today as well as tomorrow.

I will be anxiously awaiting the podcasts downloads, so tell KC not to dilly dally

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S (EARLY)

[atolunch]

BOL today Steve!

Thanks for all the info and insights and your tireless efforts.

Here's to a great weekend, and many winners.

[slotdirt]

Dang, Icabad Crane scratched. Thought he was a nice exotics add.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Dang, Icabad Crane scratched. Thought he was a nice exotics add.

Liked him as well.

[Arletta]

Fine Work Steve

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Arletta

Fine Work Steve

very nice steve... keep it going

[Clip-Clop]

Somebody is warming up huh?

Go get 'em Steve!

[tjfla]

Hope this is how it is tomm with u Steve!! WOW

[AeWingnut]

not one horse in double figures

did anyone else here notice Blind Luck dropping to her knees , getting up and beating some nice horses

I thought

finally
I'm gonna cash with out the stinkin favorite when she went down
sadly she got back up

good for the stupid look at the pretty horses fan
bad for the guy looking for a price

[AeWingnut]

FYI - I am leaving out #4 Bonita Star in the 7th at Churchill

just saying the heaviest $2 in racing is leaving #4 out of his bets

go to the windows with confidence

#4 will screw up my bet
that is all I am saying

[pointman]

Churchill 7

Late pk5 and pk4 stabs split with pmac:

$120
7- 2,6,8
8- 1,3,4,8
9- 1,2,5,6,11
10- 3,10,13,14
11- 1

$120
7- 2,6,8
8- 4
9- 1,2,5,6,11
10- 3,10,13,14
11- 1,3,6,12

late pk4:

$160
8- 1,3,4,8
9- 1,2,5,6,11
10- 3,10,13,14
11- 1,3,6,12

Good Luck!

[outofthebox]

nice start point..good capping Steve....

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

not one horse in double figures

did anyone else here notice Blind Luck dropping to her knees , getting up and beating some nice horses

I thought

finally
I'm gonna cash with out the stinkin favorite when she went down
sadly she got back up

good for the stupid look at the pretty horses fan
bad for the guy looking for a price

While she is awesome, Blind Luck is one UGLY filly.

[Clip-Clop]

Thanks for the $300+ cold triple Steve!!!

[outofthebox]

split this late pick 4 with a buddy

1 2 3 4
2 5 6 11
1 2 3 10 13 14
1 3 4 6
$ 192

[outofthebox]

Any guaranteed pool in the Oaks-Woodford-Derby pick 3?

[DJARUM]

Why so long between races? Send me a wake up call......

[slotdirt]

The Borel effect on odds is a lot bigger than I had assumed it would be.