5/25: Belmont Park ($43k C/O)

[Kasept]

It wasn't exactly a great day for big win mutuels, but it was a fun afternoon at Pimlico Saturday, and profitable depending on your betting style. Got up early with the hit on the early P4 ($427) which paid twice the parlay, and then had to tread through the chalk until the feature. As harped on for two weeks on ATR, Derby horses are the place to start in the Preakness, and Shackleford proved out with yet another gutty performance. It's hard not to be thrilled for Dale Romans and his wacky clan, hard-working, under-appreciated Jesus Castanon, the classy Lauffer/Cubbage connections and even Taylor Made who get a needed boost as the purveyors of Forestry.

Animal Kingdom was certainly honorable in defeat, and loomed a winner midstretch despite being left with too much to do. As mentioned over the fortnight, I thought Shackleford might have dug in even more gamely in the Derby had the challengers been in his field of vision. In the Preakness, the Forestry chestnut rebuffed Astrology's inside challenge at the top of the lane and immediately answered Animal Kingdom with a spurt forward when that rival came up to him in deep stretch. I expect his win should send the 'soft trip beneficiary' naysayers into the shadows.

Shack's win tote was nice and the $114 exacta was generous, but Astrology buried my own tri/super prospects. The Stonestreet/Bolton ran a good race and got a clever 'save every inch' ride from Smitty. It was a satisfying end to a very fun day and I hope everyone did well! Focus turns to New York with the Met Mile and Belmont Weekend less than one and three weeks away, and a $43k P6 C/O available to start the raceweek..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Karakorum Budman 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Wascally Rabbit 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mystic Era 12-1 WON ($7.10)


3rd: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Just 6 but tricky and interesting after excluding Cautionary Tale..

Most Likely: #3 Does It Every Time 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Victoria Lynn 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Alseera 2-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #4 Tempest Storm 7-2 3rd


4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$43k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #3 Bustin Rocks 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #6 Rocky Fortune 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Cool Operator 8-1 3rd


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Storm On the Moon 3-1 Eased
Exotics Use: #3 Don't Fooli Houli 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Targhee Pass 5-1 WON ($11.00)


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6
3: 1-2-3-4-6
4: 3
5: 3-4-8

3x5x1x3 = $45


6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Don't resign yourself here to the two glaring players. Yes, #1 Bluember and #9 Philly Ace (half to Slambino!) have an edge, but #2 Dynamite Dude and #3 Storm Pursuit deserve long looks, and #4 Break the Glass from white hot Goldberg appear capable. Then note that Clement/Live Oak unveil #8 Za Approval, a half to the wonderful 20X winner (14 stakes) Revved Up and BC Mile winner Miesque's Approval..

Most Likely: #1 Bluember 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Dynamite Dude 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Storm Pursuit 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Philly Ace 3-1 WON ($6.60)


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

This is a treacherous spot if 9yo I've Got Speed doesn't run his typical race..

Most Likely: #1 I've Got Speed 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 New Yawker 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 I Ain't No Saint 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Our Friend Harvey 8-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Arnell 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Devon Rock 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 (POE) Capital Market 2-1 2nd/4th
Super Add: #7 Sky Blazer 4-1 3rd


9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Fun betting affair..

Best Value: #2 Australis Princess 5-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Rage of Aquarius 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 It's Not for Love 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Much Fanfare 4-1 WON ($9.60)


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 4-8
6: 1-2-3-9
7: 1
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-7-8

1x2x4x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-9
7: 1-3-4
8: 1-2-6
9: 1-2-7-8

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[herkhorse]

Devon Rock is the 1 Steve

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Devon Rock is the 1 Steve

Got it. Thx Tom!

BELMONT CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY:

Weather: Sunny
Track: Fast
Turf: Good
Notes: Inner Rail @18' / Widener Rail @ 27'

[hockey2315]

I really like Related today.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I really like Related today.

I have a feeling they'll run him tomorrow on dirt.

[hockey2315]

Damn. . . you were right. Terrible decision.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[ateamstupid]

I really hate Belmont sometimes. Only there would you see a horrendous 3-1 like Alseera gallop like that.

[hockey2315]

I didn't bet the race, but how was she a horrible 3-1 shot? She was the third choice in a field of six and the only runner w/ any room for improvement. . . If it's a field size complaint, though, I can see that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I didn't bet the race, but how was she a horrible 3-1 shot? She was the third choice in a field of six and the only runner w/ any room for improvement. . . If it's a field size complaint, though, I can see that.

The field she beat in her maiden race was atrocious, she had a major figure disadvantage and she was cutting back in distance off a long layoff. If it were anybody but McLaughlin/Darley, the horse would've been 10-1 and run like it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The field she beat in her maiden race was atrocious, she had a major figure disadvantage and she was cutting back in distance off a long layoff. If it were anybody but McLaughlin/Darley, the horse would've been 10-1 and run like it.

*like

[Dahoss]

Going to try Green Bluff here.

[Dahoss]

Is the rail out far enough?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The field she beat in her maiden race was atrocious, she had a major figure disadvantage and she was cutting back in distance off a long layoff. If it were anybody but McLaughlin/Darley, the horse would've been 10-1 and run like it.

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now. It's 8 months later and she was a 2-1 second choice. Not sure why there's such a mystery as to expectations that she run well.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now.

Jermaine was always my favorite Jackson... Just sayin.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now. It's 8 months later and she was a 2-1 second choice. Not sure why there's such a mystery as to expectations that she run well.

Really? I think the field she faced mattered quite a bit given what an unknown quantity she was off the bench. It was explained in detail by Andy and Jason that McLaughlin is not that great off of these types of layoffs and the MSW field she had faced was particularly bad.

That being said, she actually went off a bigger price than I thought she would. I didn't bet the race but she had a perfect trip against a field that was far softer than the average N1X of any type this time of year.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now. It's 8 months later and she was a 2-1 second choice. Not sure why there's such a mystery as to expectations that she run well.

You're right, we should just assume that every McLaughlin returnee is going to run off the page regardless of past performance.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You're right, we should just assume that every McLaughlin returnee is going to run off the page regardless of past performance.

The past performances are from 8 months ago when she was a 2yo... Obviously there was an issue that she only is getting back to the races now, and the improvement from 2 to 3 is typically pretty big. She was a $500,000 yearling by Distorted Humor out of a full sister to Anees. It's a big surprise that she may have actual talent?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The past performances are from 8 months ago when she was a 2yo... Obviously there was an issue that she only is getting back to the races now, and the improvement from 2 to 3 is typically pretty big. She was a $500,000 yearling by Distorted Humor out of a full sister to Anees. It's a big surprise that she may have actual talent?

Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.

[Dahoss]

Belmont 6th
.50 late 4
1,3/ 1,3,12/ 2,5/ 2,4,8

$40 win 3