8/27: Saratoga (Day 32; Travers Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD,. Super)

Most Likely: #3 Global Power 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Rein King 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Shrewd One 3-1 2nd/3rd
Super Add: #12 Trulee Scrappin 8-1 7th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Pletcher entry 8-5 2nd/8th
Next Best: #7 Covert Ops 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Fire On Ice 6-1 WON ($7.50)
Super Add: #8 Casual Trick 7-2 5th


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 SEVE 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Anonymous Donor 6-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Daddy Nose Best 5-1 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #5 State Flag 12-1 4th


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Fine Flyer 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Good Prospect 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Hanson Heights 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Desert Wheat 6-1 3rd


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Juvy event has a strange feel to it with cast made up of mostly firsters from 'better 2nd time' barns. Pedigree hints not overly abundant either despite Trophy Wife being out of BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home, etc. Will utilize 2nd out players drom Romans and Guillot and throw acouple of possibilities into the mix with them..

Most Likely: #10 Mi Vida 7-2: Pretty filly grabs lead; Dam full sis of Majestic Warrior.. 5th
Best Value: #7 Miss Netta 6-1: Sib to slew of West Coast stakes types; Solid drills.. WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Stellabymoonlight SCRATCHED
Super Add: #3 Yellow Boat 12-1: Benzel FTS can hit board, and Ramon sees fit to ride.. 2nd

SCRATCH ADD: #2 Try to Catch Her 12-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-6-7-8
3: 9-10
4: 3-4-7
5: 2-3-7-8-10

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sextant 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Catchapenny K 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Sarah's Pleasure 9-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Strategic Missile 10-1 WON ($24.00)


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fizzano 7-2: Speed in event devoid of pace; Ramon sticks.. WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #1 Seattle Mission 9-2: Perenial hanger prefers Spa, stays close.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mr. Hooker 30-1: 2nd (52-1) this event Travers Day '10.. 9th
Super Add: #2 Wishingonadream 30-1: Mediocrity fares best when inside.. 7th


8th: 23rd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not that many in here can't win, but don't you want the pair exiting the G1 Diana in Aviate and Mekong Melody? They both had some reasonable excuses for not winning, and simply own a class edge. Tapisfly, Miss Keller SCR'D and Strike the Bell are 10-1, 10-1 and 15-1 respectively, and are interchangeable as frustrating underperformers this annum, and all deserve spots on exotics plays as tote boosters..

Most Likely: #7 Aviate 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Tapitsfly 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mekong Melody 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Romacaca 7-2 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-7-8-10
6: 2-3-5-6-9
7: 1-6
8: 5-7-9

5x5x2x3 = 150 x .50 = $75


9th: 9th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Hot Summer 8-1: Back to one turn; Gets pace to chase.. WON ($16.40)
Next Best: #3 A Z Warrior 6-1: Sharp for comeback; Baffert deadly these settings 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Funny Sunny 6-1: Got turf dash tightener; Stalks up close.. 5th
Super Add: #9 Roman Treasure 5-1: Lone participant here from season's G1 sprints.. 3rd


10th: 33rd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Nothing imaginative to confer here..

Most Likely: #7 Sassy Image 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Tar Heel Mom 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Hilda's Passion 2-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Tamarind Hall 6-1 3rd


11th: 27th King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Sire-making race has a Beyer par of 108 and no set pattern or requirement of the winner as pure sprinters and classy cutback types have both been successful here. One thing is notable, and that is good previous tries over the surface, notably at age 2. Uncle Mo certainly can win this if close to his best, and Pletcher would not be showcasing him here if he were not suitably prepared..

Best Value: #8 Cool Blue Red Hot 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Flashpoint 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Uncle Mo 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Caleb's Posse 9-2 WON ($13.80)


12th: 142nd Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD, Super)

As discussed all week, a fun and accomplished group has come together for the season's main event, with only the sidelined Derby winner missing from the cast. What isn't there to like about the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Jim Dandy winners in one race, challenged by a solid set of aspirants? Believe Mott may be sitting on second Saudi soph success in 2 weeks as A.P. Indy colt Raison d'Etat appears to be right horse in right place at right time at right price..

Best Value: #6 Raison d'Etat 10-1: Came to hand; Abdullah makes 1st Spa visit today.. 8th
Next Best: #10 Shackleford 9-2: Too tough to ignore despite question of last 100 yards.. 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Stay Thirsty 5-2: Deserving fave off Dandy, 3/2-1-0 mark this strip.. WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #7 Coil 3-1: Seeks unique 3 generation win this event (Point Given; Thunder Gulch).. 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-5-6
10: 3-6-7
11: 1-2-7-8
12: 6-7-9-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (6-3-2-9) Paid $363.25


13th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #2 What's the Record 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Windafull 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Cincinnati Kid 3-1 WON ($8.70)
Super Add: #4 Majesty's Pilgrim 15-1 8th


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Sethcarter]

toga race 1

pk3

136/1/all...

15 dollars wp 1

[-BT-]

WOW


-bt-

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

toga race 1

pk3

136/1/all...

15 dollars wp 1

Beat like a wet dog...

Then broke even on the win/place play...

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by -BT-

WOW


-bt-

Anyone ever tell you that you look just like a famous actor

[Port Conway Lane]

turnback,blinks,bug boy,overdue trainer,only wins on dirt,easy money.

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

turnback,blinks,bug boy,overdue trainer,only wins on dirt,easy money.

I guess.... Good bug boy helps... But a play certainly out of my range of handicapping skills...

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

I guess.... Good bug boy helps... But a play certainly out of my range of handicapping skills...

JK, horse has burned money for many at short prices and then wins at twice the price he has ever been.The logic of illogic.

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

JK, horse has burned money for many at short prices and then wins at twice the price he has ever been.The logic of illogic.

LOL... "The logic of illogic" definitely is a new capping angle for me...

[ellpol]

Steve Byk has 5 winners on his post 2nd through the 6th after 6 races,today. He is awesome baby!!!

[ellpol]

Originally Posted by ellpol

Steve Byk has 5 winners on his post 2nd through the 6th after 6 races,today. He is awesome baby!!!

Make that 7 winners good luck in the middle pick 4 with the 5 7 9

[Capote3]

Awesome Tips Steve....It is a very "Hot Summer" here in SC. Good Luck the rest of the day!!

[odbaxter]

Way to go Steve. Awesome work today!

[dagolfer33]

Great job Steve!!!

[ellpol]

Way to go steve you got that late piock 4

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

I guess.... Good bug boy helps... But a play certainly out of my range of handicapping skills...

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

turnback,blinks,bug boy,overdue trainer,only wins on dirt,easy money.

Myechtomy the key difference maker in Pretty Boy Freud's performance..

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Myechtomy the key difference maker in Pretty Boy Freud's performance..

I assume there is no real notation for that kind of thing in the form? Is something like that available as public record if asked? Is it mandatory to report? What's the deal with something like that, Steve?

[Kasept]

Thx guys. Despite 2 missteps in the first two P4's, (ignoring Daveron and leaving off Daddy Nose Best), it was a very good day. Hot Summer was a major key to the afternoon, and the Miss Netta/Yellow Boat returns were a big boost.

Was tremendously fun Travers Day too from "Loose on the Lead" all the way through a really nice party this evening. Hope everybody did well and enjoyed it! Admit that Tina and I and a lot of racetrackers are happy to be off tomorrow. Stay safe all..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by GPK

I assume there is no real notation for that kind of thing in the form? Is something like that available as public record if asked? Is it mandatory to report? What's the deal with something like that, Steve?

Kev,

This is a fascinating topic and opinions are all over the map. What should be documented and offered for public consumption and what is practical to gather, etc.? Throat surgeries? OK.. What about hyperbaric chamber treatments or other exterior/interior influence therapies? I think it's a can of worms personally, but many people think it's very unfair that a procedure like a myechtomy is done and only a handful of people get to know...