11/5 (Saturday): Churchill Downs -- 28th Breeders' Cup

[Kasept]

Overall a highly effective Day 1 for Cup '11 with the $96 P6 play -- of all things -- making a very big difference to the bottom line through its' $1,350 influx. Musical Romance was the elusive leg of the sextet, but as a fan of Bill Kaplan I couldn't be too disappointed when so delighted for the South Florida veteran. Along the way Friday there was a good I.D. of Stephanie's Kitten in the Juvy Filly Turf for $14, but expecting Stopshoppingmaria to stop sooner cost me the exotics. An early P3 hit (Will's Wildcat-Secret Circle-Stephanie's Kitten) was good for $100, and a high opinion of $58 Perfect Shirl worked out including the day's last P3 ($200 for .50). Gary Young, Mike Welsch, Rich Migliore, Joe Petrucione and I all told you Royal Delta was the sharpest working distaffer on the Downs grounds these last two weeks, and she earned being atop the cold $116 triple and $588 superfecta with It's Tricky, Pachattack and Ultra Blend. Hope everyone got something and that we can mine a few more nuggets Saturday!


CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 28TH BREEDERS' CUP


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Might have tried to beat Pletcher fave Shared Heart had I not seen her held tightly in a workout so that Rule's feeling wouldn't be hurt..

Most Likely: #1 Shared Heart 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Elegant Finish 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Jump Up 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Ensign's Soul 10-1 3rd


2nd: Dream Supreme, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Huh.. Guess Dancinginherdreams wasn't what we were promised last fall..

Best Value: #1 Grandacious 10-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Dancinginherdreams 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Salty Strike 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #9 Splendor Town 20-1 4th


3rd: 4th BC Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD, Super)

This is a truly preposterous event. For the 4th year in a row it sits there in front of us on the PP's offering just modest clues as to what to reasonably expect. I'm interested in Meeznah as Dynaformer looks for his first Cup winner and she is as plausible as anyone. Birdrun should be involved early, will carry a long way and feels certain to hit the board. Cease has upside and Pleasant Prince has been working sharply. I'll use Giant Oak back with Shaun Bridgmohan too..

Best Value: #3 Meeznah 12-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Birdrun 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Cease 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Pleasant Prince 12-1 4th


4th: 5th BC Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very good group was rendered more equal by Finale's draw to the 13 hole. Pletcher-Coolmore colt by Scat Daddy is an utter terror from what I've seen over the past 2 weeks, and looks to have the tactical foot to provide Johnny V. an opportunity to work out a voyage. Hope the post conundrum allows his price to stay square, because like Stephanie's Kitten Friday -- 12-1 ML then 6-1 at break -- there's potential for him to come down. Endorsed by Nick Luck, Casper Netscher may be able to stretch to a mile while getting lost on the board. Animal Spirits closed into a slow pace in the Bourbon. And considering that Excaper's best race came at the distance on the lawn behind Finale, why has no one said a word about him? He's going to be 30-1. One problem with these four is awareness that the superfecta quartet in Friday's filly version all came from the inside half of the gate..

Most Likely: #13 Finale 5-1 7th
Best Value: #11 Excaper 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Casper Netscher 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Animal Spirits 8-1 5th


5th: 28th BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Admit freely to feeling confused by this group. Respect Fawkes too much to believe Big Drama won't put in quality title defense effort, but price just appears certain to be grossly underlaid. Like Switch on the F&M side, Hamazing Destiny was 2nd in this race last year and may be sneakily prepared for this year's endeavor as well. Force Freeze, Giant Ryan and Jackson Bend all are possible on their best..

Best Value: #6 Force Freeze 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Jackson Bend 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Giant Ryan 8-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Hamazing Destiny 10-1 5th


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1
2: 1-3-8
3: 1-3-4-5-9
4: 11-13
5: 2-4-5-6-8

1x3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


6th: 4th BC Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Day's most quizzical event. Defending champ Chamberlain Bridge training lights out, but the 14 hole is an added burden that makes any short price tough to swallow. Havelock and Regally Ready get high marks for physical appearance and works the past fortnight, while any among Hoofit, Camp Victory, California Flag and obscure Perfect Officer have potential at attractive numbers. Make your play and hold your breath..

Most Likely: #8 Regally Ready 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #10 Havelock 9-2 14th
Exotics Use: #14 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Perfect Officer 12-1 3rd


7th: 5th BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

With as much speed as you have lined up, outside presser/closer types are the lean with Trappe Shot the shaky tab despite the dreadful Vosburgh no-show. One thing I'm not going to see happen is Jersey Town win without me. As discussed on ATR, it takes a bank shot to get him to the line first, but he could be in front at the 16th pole..

Most Likely: #9 Trappe Shot 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Jersey Town 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Wilburn 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Caleb's Posse 5-1 WON ($15.60)


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 11-13
5: 2-5-6
6: 4-8-10-14
7: 5-7-8-9

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


8th: 28th BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

A litany of sharp 3yo Euros -- from Lashkari to Red Rocks -- have annexed this event, and Sea Moon appears poised for a similar earmark Saturday..

Best Value: #7 Sea Moon 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Await the Dawn 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 St Nicholas Abbey 9-2 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #3 Dean's Kitten 10-1 9th


9th: 28th BC Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Crop of 2yo's looks very promising, with Union Rags, Drill, Creative Cause and Hansen owning a result edge on the outsiders. Take Charge Indy, Alpha and on track impression Fort Loudon are deep exotic options, but don't blame anyone who sees this race as similar to Friday's Juvy Filly test where faves ran 1-2-3 in order..

Most Likely: #10 Union Rags 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Hansen 10-1 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Take Charge Indy 30-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Alpha 15-1 11th


10th: 28th BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

As with the shift to Stephanie's Kitten after Somali Lemonade drew so poorly in the Juvy Filly Turf, am disheartened for Turallure with difficult 13 hole assignment. Goldikova was always the horse to beat, and it feels sacrilegious at this point to go against her. Strong Suit is 'this year's Euro model' in terms of a 3yo trying to make a mark and Gio Ponti certainly can be expected to put in his quality try..

Most Likely: #1 Goldikova 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Gio Ponti 4-1 4th
Best Value: #13 Turallure 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Strong Suit 10-1 10th


11th: 28th BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Have discussed this race for weeks on end and can only make decisions based on what I've seen from principals over the course of the season and the last two weeks. Flat Out has the record, style and aptitude for Classic success, and appears the most logical player to fulfill potential in this assignment. I admit that while Uncle Mo may be the most talented runner signed on, I'm unconvinced he can be ready for the task at hand. Drosselmeyer is potentially better now then he's ever been and can close out a big weekend for Bill Mott with the kind of quality effort at which his morning machinations hint. Havre de Grace has run premium races time and again this year, and she'll need to be as special as Larry Jones suggests to impact this contest significantly. So You Think makes no sense to me at this stage of his career. I'm going to try to keep as many of the short prices -- Uncle Mo, Havre de Grace, So You Think -- out of the trifecta and key Flat Out up and down with 4 or 5 solid prices. You can always protect with the chalk on your multi-race back-up tickets as I did with My Miss Aurelia Friday and have done in the late quad..

Most Likely: #2 Flat Out 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Drosselmeyer 15-1 WON ($31.60)
Next Best: #13 To Honor and Serve 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Stay Thirsty 12-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Headache 30-1 12th


<$150 Ultimate P6 Play:

6: 8-10
7: 5-7-9
8: 6-7
9: 1-5-10
10: 1
11: 2-3

2x3x2x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-6-7
9: 1-5-10
10: 1-5-11-13
11: 2-3-10-12

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


12th: Chilukki (G2), F&M-3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Buckleupbuttercup 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #8 Anunciata 10-1 9th
Next Best: #9 May Day Rose 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ailalea 8-1 6th


Good luck!
Steve

[ADJMK]

Unfortunately never going to see 6-1 on Flatout. He is the lowest double payoff($20) with Royal Delta.

As of 1.00 am Flatout is 3-1, Uncle Mo 9-2, Havre 5-1

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Unfortunately never going to see 6-1 on Flatout. He is the lowest double payoff($20) with Royal Delta.

As of 1.00 am Flatout is 3-1, Uncle Mo 9-2, Havre 5-1

I'm thinking the dumb money should come in and inflate his odds later today. . . probably more recreational bettors betting on a Saturday that aren't betting Friday. I think the Royal Delta/Flat Out DD was a big wise guy play, but couldn't believe how short it is.

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S -- EQUIBASE

CD SCR/CHG'S -- CHURCHILL DOWNS.COM

[Mike]

6th-Rapport
8th-Sea Moon
9th-Hansen
10th-Compliance Officer
11th-exacta box Uncle Mo/SoYouThink

[ADJMK]

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-6-7
9: 1-5-10
10: 1-5-11-13
11: 2-3-10-12

That is probably going to be one expensive photo. Did he have to draw the 13?.

[ScottJ]

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-6-7
9: 1-5-10
10: 1-5-11-13
11: 2-3-10-12

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Hand over heart, the nose loss in the tenth has qualified this ticket as the single toughest beat that I have seen Breeder's Cup weekend. Steve, I know you hit late last night (Friday), but this is just a tough beat - by a nose. You get 24 hour grousing rights on Monday's ATR!

[MaTH716]

Wow, Stevie, you deserved so much better. Unbelieveable job, only to lose a nose to a plug like Court Vision. I'm so sorry.

[ninetoone]

Brutal Steve...great 'capping as usual though. Court Vision? WTF.

[philcski]

Was alive for 25k to HDG in the p4. Brutal

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by philcski

Was alive for 25k to HDG in the p4. Brutal

How did you come up with Court Vision, did you buy the race?

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

How did you come up with Court Vision, did you buy the race?

Good question... That's the only thing I can see of people that had that horse.

[Kasept]

Got to mid-Ohio last night and passing through Erie on way home after 2 super weeks in the Ville. Wild Day 2 of Cup was typical one of ups and downs. As I wrote Friday, unforeseeable results -- i.e. Afleet Again and Court Vision -- will send you reeling, but you just need to keep swinging. Had some very good ideas and harrowing misses and came away feeling great about the approaches to weekend. Hope the opinions helped everyone do well or at least get something along the way..

Really looking forward to huge ATR Cup recap week with Bill Mott, virtually every other winning trainer, Johnny V, Mike Smith, Corey Nakatani, owners, breeders, pundits and much more!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

How did you come up with Court Vision, did you buy the race?

Yeah, I felt really strong about getting through the Turf and Juvenile for cheap (3x2) and played a few different tickets from there on, but had a 1/ALL and an ALL/10 ticket. Didn't like Drosselmeyer at all, especially at half the price he should have been, so oh well.

[dagolfer33]

Originally Posted by philcski

Was alive for 25k to HDG in the p4. Brutal

Same thing happened to me in the 2010 Belmont. And I got beat by........Smith and Drosselmeyer.

[Rootdog1]

Hit the pk4 thanks to you Steve. Added Drosselmeyer to my ticket cause I looked here before I headed to track. I originally had To Honor and Serve and switched it out at the last second while at the betting machine...I was alive to 4 horses. I used Court Vision cause I had heard from the barn he was doing very well. A little luck and a little extra info. Thanks Steve for all your efforts.

[EPB]

I have watched the Turf Mile race now about ten times. Turallure was ahead before the pole and after the wire ... but somehow not at the wire. TOUGH beat!

[keithting]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Got to mid-Ohio last night and passing through Erie on way home after 2 super weeks in the Ville. Wild Day 2 of Cup was typical one of ups and downs. As I wrote Friday, unforeseeable results -- i.e. Afleet Again and Court Vision -- will send you reeling, but you just need to keep swinging. Had some very good ideas and harrowing misses and came away feeling great about the approaches to weekend. Hope the opinions helped everyone do well or at least get something along the way..

Really looking forward to huge ATR Cup recap week with Bill Mott, virtually every other winning trainer, Johnny V, Mike Smith, Corey Nakatani, owners, breeders, pundits and much more!

Steve - I was lucky enough to cash on Afleet Again yesterday..He certainly made my Breeders Cup 2011..

We had met the owners at Saratoga in August and they invited us into the paddock prior to the John's Call Stakes. He didn't run a lick that day, but I stuck with him yesterday because I remembered Butch saying he wanted to run all day.

Congrads to Butch Reid and AA..Hope you have him on the show this coming week.....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Hit the pk4 thanks to you Steve. Added Drosselmeyer to my ticket cause I looked here before I headed to track. I originally had To Honor and Serve and switched it out at the last second while at the betting machine...I was alive to 4 horses. I used Court Vision cause I had heard from the barn he was doing very well. A little luck and a little extra info. Thanks Steve for all your efforts.

Clay..

Wow. That's awesome.. Congratulations! As always, I take great pleasure hearing this. Would obviously have enjoyed Turallure getting up for my own play, but knowing you cashed big is great. So it was a good day for you all around with Shack's good effort too!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by keithting

Steve - I was lucky enough to cash on Afleet Again yesterday..He certainly made my Breeders Cup 2011..

We had met the owners at Saratoga in August and they invited us into the paddock prior to the John's Call Stakes. He didn't run a lick that day, but I stuck with him yesterday because I remembered Butch saying he wanted to run all day.

Congrads to Butch Reid and AA..Hope you have him on the show this coming week.....

KT..

Tremendous.. Congratulations! One of the Cup's happiest moments was Butch and his wife Ginnie soaking it in post race. Glad you stuck with him and scored..