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#1
11-20-2011, 08:24 AM
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11/20: Aqueduct ($33k C/O)
My apologies for taking a handicapping pass Saturday, but I wasn't happy with the feel I had for the action and didn't want to provide luke warm opinions as a result. One horse that I did talk about on ATR and "Loose on the Lead" was Sabercat and I was certainly pleased by his performance in the Delta Jackpot after lauding the Asmussen colt since Breeders' Cup. I was struck thinking about the win by the difference an in-person/physical impression can make on one's opinion. On paper coming into the Breeders’ Cup, Sabercat wasn’t a horse I was remotely interested in as a 2yo with impact. But seeing him gallop every day at Churchill and then work really well the Sunday before Cup opened me to his potential. I believe that only ATR listeners and Derby Trail members knew what happened with him and a colic episode pre-Cup as it went totally unreported. In addition, based on thoughts you heard directly from Steve Asmussen and Scott Blasi on ATR, you should have felt good about his possibilities in the $1,000,000 affair Saturday at DeD... Fold in a generous 8-1 price and you had a recipe for a nice hit. Hope many played him and did well. There is a $33k carryover at Aqueduct today on a very good card as well as a $70k C/O at Hollywood.
AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super) $33k P6 C/O starts here.. Very nice group and a tricky way to have to start the carry sequence. . Most Likely: #1 San Pablo 5-2 WON ($4.30) Best Value: #3 Mine Over Matter 10-1 6th Next Best: #4 Trulee Scrappin 2-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Viscount 8-1 2nd 5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Another good group with many here capable on best including 20-1 Majestic Raffy who was within 1.5L of 6-1 Sky Blue Pink in October and seems to love this course owning 3/2-0-0 mark. Cleared NY-N1X last time from 12 hole under Abel Lezcano and has been consistant check earner all year. Great betting affair.. Most Likely: #5 Precious Metal 7-2 8th Best Value: #11 Majestic Raffy 20-1 7th Next Best: #4 Westside Corral 5-2 WON ($6.80) Super Add: #12 Hear the Footsteps 8-1 11th 6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) 1st and 2nd time starting Empire bred 2yo's. Kind of a crapshoot.. Best Value: #10 Kid Blast 10-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Officerandafoose 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Half Nelson 7-2 WON ($8.40) Super Add: #3 Timothy's Boy 8-1 10th 7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Bourbonology 4-1 5th Next Best: #7 Robinia 2-1 WON ($3.60) Best Value: #2 Raffie's Chance 12-1 4th Super Add: #6 Lemon Splendor 5-1 3rd 8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD, Super) Inclined to play against 3-1 favored Bound by Humor at the low tote when he needs to improve to contend.. Most Likely: #2 Head Heart Hoof 7-2 WON ($7.30) Best Value: #7 Coaltown Legend 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Raynick's Jet 8-1 6th Super Add: #1 Bound by Humor 3-1 4th 9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super) Most Likely: #1 Idle American 2-1 WON ($4.00) Best Value: #9 Sam's Buck 12-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Polaris Dream 15-1 7th Super Add: #4 Windaful 5-1 2nd <$200 P6 Play: 4: 1-3-4-6 5: 4-5-11 6: 1-2-3-10 7: 4-7 8: 2 9: 1 4x3x4x2x1x1 = 96 x $2 = $192 $2 Pick 6 (1,2,5/4,13,14,15,16/2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13) Paid $394.00 $2 Pick 6 (1,2,5/4,13,14,15,16/2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13) Paid $10.40 (5OF6) X 9 = $93.60 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-2-3-9-10 7: 4-7 8: 1-2-4-6-7 9: 1-5-9 5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75 $0.50 Pick 4 (2/7,11,12,13/2/1,11,12,13) Paid $40.85 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-20-2011 at 04:28 PM. 
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#2
11-20-2011, 11:14 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
11-20-2011, 04:25 PM
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Solid work today, congrats hitting pk4/6 on your b-day!!!
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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#8
11-20-2011, 04:40 PM
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Very nice!!
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#10
11-20-2011, 05:00 PM
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Thanks all. Was fun. Sorry the sequence didn't have more juice today... Tried to catch a fancy number in the first portion of the skien. Getting Kid Blast up had potential to juice things, but the nightcap could have gone the other way too so you can't complain. Makes for a good story tomorrow on ATR.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
11-21-2011, 08:59 AM
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Nice job Steve................Joyeux Anniversaire !!
__________________
A racehorse is an animal that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time. ~Author Unknown
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