2/11: Gulfstream (Donn Day)

[Kasept]

GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Desert Storm 3-1: Mott-WinStar Tiznow ran off wk ago.. 3rd
Best Value: #6 Good Morning Diva 5-1: Wide 3rd in Gentleman's Bet romp.. WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #5 Z Vilna 5-2: First shot for Pletcher to reach win #3k.. 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Morgan's Guerilla 6-1: Maker 5/2-2-1 with winter MSW firsters.. 2nd


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Solid group of sophs that are currently a cut below the stakes level. Eyes will be on Pletcher pair including Hopeful show runner Big Blue Nation and visually impressive maiden-breaker Spring Hill Farm..

Most Likely: #4 Spring Hill Farm 5-2: Modest Evans dispersal buy may be lone speed.. WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Two is Too Many 8-1: Faced Discreet Dancer, Algorithms, Reveron.. 5th
Next Best: #3 Unbridled Minister 3-1: McPeek debut winner in front of Teeth of the Dog.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Big Blue Nation 5-1: Needed time after both starts; Likely ready fresh.. 4th


4th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

[i]Should Pletcher be shut out to this point, he will have opportunity for 3,000th win with Majestic Number, a horse that was named after the first winner of his career, a MD-bred by Polish Numbers that bested $80k MDN CLMers at Gulfstream 1/26/96 under Jerry Bailey..I]

Most Likely: #5 Excess Liquidity 6-1: Malibu Moon from C. Brown should be sharper 2nd out.. 7th
Next Best: #2 Rise Against 5-2: Discreet Cat from R. Dutrow not flattered by Eckabroni.. 3rd
Best Value: #9 Majestic Number 6-1: See above; You can't make this stuff up.. WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Fort Boonesborough 10-1: Fawkes 1ster half to MGSW Twilight Road.. 2nd


5th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

First turf event of day after week of rain. Possible that everything but G1 GP Turf H. comes off lawn..

Most Likely: #8 Golden Ticket 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 Bridge Loan 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Ragazzi 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Common Bond 8-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-5-6
3: 2-3-4-7
4: 2-5-9
5: 1-3-8-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 P4 (6-4-9-8) $152.60


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Glad this isn't in the P5 or a P4 sequence. This race has a chaos feel too it despite presence of top connections/pedigrees..

Most Likely: #8 Sanadaat 5-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Paradol 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Silent Fright 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Claire's Song 4-1 2nd


7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 8.5f-T/12' (P6, P3, DD, Super)

If this stays on turf, 12-1 Final Count appeals getting Solis, enjoying cozy draw and displaying a predilection for off going..

Best Value: #2 FINAL COUNT 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Fastest Magician 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Mobilizer 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Bergerac 5-1 2nd

OFF THE TURF: 11-12-4


8th: 61st Hutcheson (G2), 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Il Villano has become a mojo horse with those looking to be against Thunder Moccasin and Ever So Lucky. Sheppard was not exactly decisive about Ever So Lucky for this, a sign that can point to iffy performances. Can't find reason to be all that eager to go against Thunder Moccasin who has had 7 weeks into this after smashing debut which went flattered by Ender Knieval, Panthro and Stealcase. And you may have noticed that Pletcher has been doing OK at Gulfstream this winter..

Ever So Lucky a SCR..

Most Likely: #3 Thunder Moccasin 7-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #5 Il Villano 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Quick Wit 6-1 3rd


9th: 67th Suwannee River (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T/72' (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Denomination 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Hit It Rich 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Snow Top Mountain 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Heavenly Landing 4-1 6th

OFF THE TURF: 10-11-12


10th: 56th Donn H. (G1), 4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Nice assembly of talent for GP's premier handicap event highlighted by Preakness and Belmont winners making their 4yo debuts. Feels like an honest enough pace is assured with presence of Trickmeister and free running pursuers in Shackleford and Redeemed, but this racetrack is not too kind on those trying to close. Believe you want those that will be close up or stalking near and both Hymm Book and Where's Sterling should have ideal positions/trips at square prices..

Best Value: #10 Hymm Book 8-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #9 Shackleford 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Where's Sterling 12-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Redeemed 12-1 3rd


11th: 29th Gulfstream Park Turf H. (G1), 4+, 9f-T/72' (DD, Super)

Tough group to decipher with course condition a question mark at this hour. Pacesetters on off going can be impossible to reel in, so Get Stormy has to move up on radar screens if you thought he had possibilities going in..

SCR Boisterous & Smart Bid..

Most Likely: #7 Get Stormy 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Kindergarten Kid 15-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Hollinger 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Silver Medallion 5-1 6th


12th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Impossible group to figure out..

Most Likely: #2 Sheerflakesofgold 7-2 4th
Next Best: #11 Cash Belongings 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 My Schatzi 12-1 WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Where is Wilder 10-1 3rd


<$100 P5 Play:

8: 3-5
9: 2
10: 1-4-9-10
11: 1-2-7-8-9
12: 2-5-9-11-12

2x1x4x5x5 = 200 x .50 = $100

$0.50 P5 (3,6/8/10/7/12) Paid $19.85


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 2
10: 1-4-6-9-10
11: 1-2-7-8-9
12: 2-5-6-9-11-12

1x5x5x6 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Track status: Stakes are on turf. Decision pending on 2 MSW's. Main track sealed and sloppy as of now. Early a.m. thunderstorms hit Hallandale around 3a.

[Sightseek]

The TDN has been reporting that Ever So Lucky is out of the Hutcheson.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

The TDN has been reporting that Ever So Lucky is out of the Hutcheson.

No surprise there. Thanks Sighty

[Kasept]

Maiden 5th will be OFF the turf..

[Kasept]

Shug leaning towards SCR of Boisterous from GP Turf H.

[Kasept]

Smart Bid a SCR from GP Turf H. via Motion tweet..

[Arletta]

What a mess... Was trying enough to cap for a dry track, let alone this yucky stuff.

Might as well throw darts today and hope for the best.

[Alan07]

GP SCR/CHG'S

Sloppy & Good, though its hard to believe the turf isn't soft.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

giving out hymn book on the air..on tv and radio..congrats .

[Bogey]

Congrats Steve!!! Great work throughout the card and you made an impossible finale look easy.

[ateamstupid]

*pulls string on Byk doll*

GAVE OUT THE SUPER, GAVE OUT THE SUPER, GAVE OUT THE SUPER.

[Kasept]

Matt-O, Gus, Oey..

THX... Was a terrific day. Hope everyone did well.






("Gave out the Super".. LOL. Great moments in Saratoga Summer/Slave-B-Q History.)

[monkeyco]

Thank you Steve! Hymn Book bailed me out - I was using him modestly until I saw you had him on top, and I've been burned one to many times when I have ignored your top choices in these big races. Nice picks!

[MichiganMattA]

Thanks Steve for talking me into including Hymn Book into my pick 4. And....................Yahtzee!!!!! Stay HOT buddy...

[pointman]

Nice job again today, Steve!

[mclem0822]

Caught that late P3, very nice work!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by monkeyco

Thank you Steve! Hymn Book bailed me out - I was using him modestly until I saw you had him on top, and I've been burned one to many times when I have ignored your top choices in these big races. Nice picks!

Monkey..

Thx! Glad you made out OK with him. God Bless Shug..

Will work hard to get you to your 10th post by Derby...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Thanks Steve for talking me into including Hymn Book into my pick 4. And....................Yahtzee!!!!! Stay HOT buddy...

Matt..

That's so great.. $1,666 on the .50. Congratulations!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pointman

Nice job again today, Steve!

Originally Posted by mclem0822

Caught that late P3, very nice work!

Thx guys..