5/17: Belmont Park ($114k C/O)

Kasept · #1 05-17-2012, 05:22 AM

Was stymied in the Belmont finale Wednesday looking for a P6 conso and solid P4 anchor when The Dood sprung the 20-1 upset with wiring returnee Why Broadway. Shivmangel's Whywhywhy winner -- brilliantly tweeted pre-race as a viable horse to try by Andy Serling -- helped seal a second carryover into Thursday worth $114k. Though the nightcap beat tweaked, returns on the day were still excellent including $230 (4th-6th) and $190 (5th-7th) P3's and quality exotics in the 4th and 5th. After an extended period of leaking money, I was happy to have a consistently positive day. Hope everyone did well. Thursday card is a bit less attractive than yesterday's, but hard not to try the bonus pool after the serious flirtation. Meanwhile, Pimlico's Friday card is outstanding and you should be looking forward to it as a great prequel to Saturday's action.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

NOTE: With Superfectas now fully expanded in NY, I'm going to stop including them in the wagering menu options on the race description..

3rd: Vanlandingham, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Stay Thirsty, the last of the 18 active horses from 2011 Derby, makes his 4yo debut here and he better come out running. Trickmeister, Joan's Choice and Arthur's Tale all have recency edge..

Best Value: #4 Arthur's Tale 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Trickmeister 8-5 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Stay Thirsty 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #6 Joan's Choice 7-2 4th

4th: CLM, 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$114k P6 C/O starts here..

Question here is how to view the pair of 7-2 fire sales in #4 Personal Assistant (Contessa) and #5 Festive Spirit (Baker). Taken 2 back for $20k (from Rudy Rod) and $50k (from Pletcher) respectively, both flopped in serious company and are now being returned to sender. Kenneally is giving up on #8 A Boy Named Em (5-1) as well. Tricky start to the sextet..

Most Likely: #3 Late SCR
Best Value: #2 Chief Wild Eagle 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Festive Spirit 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Personal Assistant 7-2 5th

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Beppj got tired when shortened last time but took them a long way and might last here with less pressure. Price will be right. 8-5 fave Simple Exchange cuts back but this move on grass never seems to work like it does on the main..

Best Value: #2 Beppj 15-1 WON ($83.00)
Next Best: #10 Portend 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Bullet Baby 5-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Simple Exchange 8-5 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 8
3: 2-4-5-6
4: 2-3-4-5-8
5: 1-2-3-5-9-10

1x4x5x6 = 120 x .50 = $60

$0.50 Pick 4 (8/5/8/2) Paid $422.00

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 King Rock 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 I'm a Quickie 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Take Down Two 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Raynick's Jet 15-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

#3 Tawaared another being dropped back from whence he came, but nothing seems amiss given that he's been working steadily along since the high level try at Gulfstream. After that, start reaching for prices because Raging Wit (8-1), Moose Man (12-1), The Vin Man (15-1) and Wayward Willie (20-1) are all as viable around the money as ML 2nd/3rd choices Xodo SCR'D (3-1) and Becky's Kitten (7-2)..

Most Likely: #3 Tawaared 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Raging Wit 8-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Becky's Kitten 7-2 WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #8 The Vin Man 15-1 5th

8th: S/HCP, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Itsagoodtendollars 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Worth a Buck 5-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Gospel Lesson 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Bernie the Maestro 5-1 3rd

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Very slippery end to the sequences. In an utterly non-descript field, #2 Desert Bliss (12-1) may be sneaking in here under the radar as first time as a 3yo -- frequently a scenario that produces new best. 2-1 fave #4 Margaret Lilian tries the turf cutback and looks like highly dubious..

Best Value: #2 Desert Bliss 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Sweet Penny 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Our Pink Ribbon 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Margaret Lilian 2-1 WON ($6.30)

<$50 P6 Play:

Cannot be approached seriously without a big ticket. With a big weekend ahead, let's concentrate on the smaller multi-race wagers and submit a small action play to have a rooting interest..

4: 2-3/SCR
5: 2-3-9-10
6: 4
7: 3
8: 7
9: 2-8-9

2x4x1x1x1x3 = 24 x $2 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4
7: 3-5-6
8: 1-3-4-7
9: 2-4-8-9

1x3x4x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve

tanner12oz · #2 05-17-2012, 09:33 AM

Most Likely: #7 Itsagoodtendollars 9-5

this is a nice horse...have seen his last couple and looks fully capable to romp

Kasept · #3 05-17-2012, 11:08 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S

Kasept · #4 05-17-2012, 02:18 PM

Ended up with a $54 play..

Belmont Race 4 $2 P6 on 2-4 with 2,9,10 with 4 with 3 with 7 with 2,8,9

G/L to those giving it a whirl...

Kasept · #5 05-17-2012, 02:27 PM

Mark It Man a Late SCR from first leg.. Uggh.

ADJMK · #6 05-17-2012, 02:42 PM

Wonder if the #8 was a new gelding. First time he ever ran a step. Guess 47 work was the tip off.

casp0555 · #7 05-17-2012, 02:45 PM

Great add in the 4th Steve ....amazing

geeker2 · #8 05-17-2012, 03:03 PM

KABOOOOOOOM Steve BeppJ

casp0555 · #9 05-17-2012, 03:06 PM

Excellant Steve, great call !!!
"
Beppj got tired when shortened last time but took them a long way and might last here with less pressure. Price will be right. 8-5 fave Simple Exchange cuts back but this move on grass never seems to work like it does on the main..

The Byk Train is on the roll