Watchmaker's 05-29 Blog

[NTamm1215]

Mike Watchmaker did us all a huge favor and posted a new blog about yesterday's races. Here are a few of the highlights:

"Without taking anything away from the way Shackleford refused to concede late in the Met Mile, Caleb’s Posse’s inability this year to close the deal has become an issue. Although Shackleford is a classic winner (since he is excelling in one turn races these days, it might be forgotten that he won last year’s Preakness) with a strong will to win, and while it is true he is in much better form right now than he was when he was trounced by Caleb’s Posse in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall, let’s be real: Caleb’s Posse still looked like he was one-to-a-million to catch Shackleford late in the Metropolitan even if he was going against the grain of a track kind to speed, and didn’t. And now, after three straight narrow defeats to start his 2012 campaign, I think what Caleb’s Posse needs more than anything else is a softer assignment to boost his confidence."

This is the type of thinking that kills American racing at the top level. The horse has gamely lost two races by a nose, the first of which came with a horrible setup and the 2nd of which came against a tremendously game horse who had made a clear early lead. Now, he suddenly needs to be in Grade II or Grade III races?

Then we have this:

"That was a fine win by It’s Tricky in the Ogden Phipps, but I don’t think it at all proves she’s a better horse than Awesome Maria, who finished third at just under 4-5. Trainer Todd Pletcher took responsibility for Awesome Maria’s loss right after the Phipps, saying in a most candid way that he did a bad job preparing his mare for this assignment."

Now, I imagine that it grinds Watchmaker's gears a bit that he had no idea who It's Tricky was prior to her Acorn win last year, as he had a series of allowance horses ranked ahead of her in the Watchmaker Watch. So, he's never really going to give her the proper credit. But, more importantly, how about Todd Pletcher? Eight weeks wasn't enough time to get your "star" ready? If this is the case, we can all plan on Todd Pletcher trainees running exclusively at Gulfstream.

[cmorioles]

I have two hamsters that each have more racing knowledge than Watchmaker.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I have two hamsters that each have more racing knowledge than Watchmaker.

Hamsters are lightning fast.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Mike Watchmaker did us all a huge favor and posted a new blog about yesterday's races. Here are a few of the highlights:

"Without taking anything away from the way Shackleford refused to concede late in the Met Mile, Caleb’s Posse’s inability this year to close the deal has become an issue. Although Shackleford is a classic winner (since he is excelling in one turn races these days, it might be forgotten that he won last year’s Preakness) with a strong will to win, and while it is true he is in much better form right now than he was when he was trounced by Caleb’s Posse in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall, let’s be real: Caleb’s Posse still looked like he was one-to-a-million to catch Shackleford late in the Metropolitan even if he was going against the grain of a track kind to speed, and didn’t. And now, after three straight narrow defeats to start his 2012 campaign, I think what Caleb’s Posse needs more than anything else is a softer assignment to boost his confidence."

This is the type of thinking that kills American racing at the top level. The horse has gamely lost two races by a nose, the first of which came with a horrible setup and the 2nd of which came against a tremendously game horse who had made a clear early lead. Now, he suddenly needs to be in Grade II or Grade III races?

Then we have this:

"That was a fine win by It’s Tricky in the Ogden Phipps, but I don’t think it at all proves she’s a better horse than Awesome Maria, who finished third at just under 4-5. Trainer Todd Pletcher took responsibility for Awesome Maria’s loss right after the Phipps, saying in a most candid way that he did a bad job preparing his mare for this assignment."

Now, I imagine that it grinds Watchmaker's gears a bit that he had no idea who It's Tricky was prior to her Acorn win last year, as he had a series of allowance horses ranked ahead of her in the Watchmaker Watch. So, he's never really going to give her the proper credit. But, more importantly, how about Todd Pletcher? Eight weeks wasn't enough time to get your "star" ready? If this is the case, we can all plan on Todd Pletcher trainees running exclusively at Gulfstream.

Here is all that needs to be said:

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I have two hamsters that each have more racing knowledge than Watchmaker.

[fantini33]

Beautiful....

[OldDog]

And here I've been thinking that rivalries are good for the sport.

[pointman]

Using Watchmaker's logic I guess Bodemeister needs a softer assignment to boost his confidence.

[alysheba4]

A.M. didnt fire but thats horse racing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

A.M. didnt fire but thats horse racing.

Really? I think she ran about as well as she did in this race last year. The competition was just much tougher this year. Looks like she ran her race to me.

[alysheba4]

really, you know more than i do. when i looked at the form i included the 4 but thought A.M. was the best horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

really, you know more than i do. when i looked at the form i included the 4 but thought A.M. was the best horse.

It feels like she is better at Gulfstream, was even better there in 2011, and her subsequent NY races then were just OK. To me, she ran about as well as I expected.

Look, I'm wrong all the time. But, in this case I wasn't surprised.

[horseofcourse]

His confidence?? Does Caleb's Posse have any clue under the sun he lost the photos the last two races?? Does it really bother the horse that much to not get that winners circle photo?? How many freaking races in a row did Shackleford lose?? I'm sure I'll get roasted on this "confidence" of a horse thing like everything else I write, but I simply don't get it. AFter losing 8 million races in a row, Shackleford in his last two races beat two BC winners in a row in great races. Where'd that confidence come from?? I guess all that losing just gave him confidence I don't know why Watchmaker can't just apply that same logic to Caleb's Posse. But then again I want to see Bodemeister in the Belmont Stakes cause I'd like to see more matchups between him and I'll Have Another. I stand in the minority there probably too.

[pba1817]

GP speed figs have been notoriously high since they installed the new racing surface there a few years ago. Figures wise, just about every horse coming from there bounces. The same can be said about Oaklawn the past 2 meetings there, horses coming from Oaklawn have some inflated figures and seem to bounce hard once leaving.

[PatCummings]

Watchmaker referenced some comments about Pletcher and Awesome Maria in that blog post, and how Pletcher blamed himself. Thought it'd be interesting to compare Todd's pre-race comments to Dave Grening and post-race...

Pre-race DRF article about Ogden Phipps.

“Everything she’s done the last six starts, we’re hoping for more of
the same,” said Todd Pletcher, who trains Awesome Maria for Joyce
Robsham. “We know this is a very, very tough race. I have a lot of
respect for It’s Tricky and the other ones in there.

“Anytime you carry 124 pounds, you get a little nervous with that
impost,” Pletcher continued. “At the same time, she’s deserving of
topweight, given all of her success and her six-race winning streak.
We hope it can continue.”

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-park...hipps-handicap

Post-race DRF article about Ogden Phipps

Todd Pletcher, the trainer of Awesome Maria, took the blame for his
mare's dull effort. "I think I did a really poor job preparing her for this race,"
Pletcher said. "We stayed in Florida too long, got rained on a lot,
missed a couple of works down there. Then I tried to make up for it
here and breezed her on a sloppy track . . . It wasn't her fault. I'll
take the blame for it."

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-park...ob-done-phipps

I wonder if Awesome Maria would've been favored had Pletcher suggested she missed some works (as opposed to a slight freshening), then tried to make up for it, etc. Look, you can see in the form she didn't have a published work for a month after the Rampart win...but does it all suggest she was hurried?

At least all the TVG coverage from Hollyhump over the weekend made it incredibly clear that you should avoid Rail Trip at all costs in the Los Angeles. Now, granted, Rail Trip was never going to be say, 4-5, but Ron Ellis did everything possible to talk people off the horse, and an interview with Samantha Siegel did the same.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

“Anytime you carry 124 pounds, you get a little nervous with that impost,” Pletcher continued. “At the same time, she’s deserving of topweight, given all of her success and her six-race winning streak. We hope it can continue.”

People, she was carrying around a backbreaking 124 lbs. Secretariat himself couldn't win dragging around that anchor.

Side note: can whoever approved "Cash for Clunkers" as a name be publicly flogged?

[NTamm1215]

I hate the weight argument, but why isn't anyone talking about It's Tricky carrying 122 lbs?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I hate the weight argument, but why isn't anyone talking about It's Tricky carrying 122 lbs?

If it was 85 years ago -- Cash For Clunkers would have got a bowling ball less assigned to her.

I have most definitely seen horses that knew they won or lost. Some horse by nature are competetive. Farm managers will tell you when yearlings run in the fields usually the same ones will do enough to stay in front of the others.

As far as when they become racehorses I certainly have seen them get pumped, pose and have a special spring when the finish well in front. I think the reason for that are two fold. Partially a high from finishing in front. But more as a result of all the good vibes being sent their way from the jock on the gallop out and when returning to their handlers. Just for kicks I would paddock some of the horses I owned back in the day. After the race you could tell they were more animated and pumped if they'ed won. Especially if you gave them praise.

As for losers, that was even easier to see. A front runner that was passed late would be pissed and frustrated. Acting cantakerous and bullheaded.

As far as confidence. A horse that's feeling good and training great can have confidence and I suppose it could translate into a good performance. As far as winning or losing close photos affecting what attitude they bring to the next race is total hogwash. An hour after the race they are enjoying their bath, drinikng cool clear water, and checking for the groom with dinner. Period. Competetive in a race. Sure. Calculating or emotional. Nonsense.

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

His confidence?? Does Caleb's Posse have any clue under the sun he lost the photos the last two races?? Does it really bother the horse that much to not get that winners circle photo?? How many freaking races in a row did Shackleford lose?? I'm sure I'll get roasted on this "confidence" of a horse thing like everything else I write, but I simply don't get it. AFter losing 8 million races in a row, Shackleford in his last two races beat two BC winners in a row in great races. Where'd that confidence come from?? I guess all that losing just gave him confidence I don't know why Watchmaker can't just apply that same logic to Caleb's Posse. But then again I want to see Bodemeister in the Belmont Stakes cause I'd like to see more matchups between him and I'll Have Another. I stand in the minority there probably too.

Does Watchmaker have any clue that stylists didn't go on strike in 1978? Someone take him to a stylist so he can have his mind blown.