6/2: Belmont (7th-10th); Hollywood (6th-9th); Churchill (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

Had real opportunity to hit carryover sequence at Belmont Friday identifying winners, (2 each on top, as 2nd and 3rd choices), but structured too poorly to score even a conso. Day's big hit came in turf sprint of all things with Best Value $30.80 wire winner Ballistic Sue keying $127 exacta, $650 tri and $2,573 super. Hope everyone did well. Fun day around the racing world with the Epsom Derby this morning ahead of good afternoon of action at Belmont, Woodbine, Hollywood, Golden Gate ($80k C/O) and more ahead of 3 stake "Downs after Dark" card at Churchill...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


BELMONT TURF: 3rd, 6th, 8th OFF; 5th, 10th ON


7th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Moisture in track appears to help nearly the whole field. Very difficult start to the late P4..

Most Likely: #4 McCarren Park 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Sunday at Nipper's 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Smokin' Alice 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Union Victory 7-2 5th


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Nonno's Boy 2nd
Next Best: #12 Silent Thunder 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Maggie's Hadder WON ($6.70)


9th: 62nd Vagrancy (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Sprint affair that is oddly absent of a lot of front end speed. Affair feels like it's at the mercy of favored Nicole H. Kid Kate (6-1) loves BEL and wet tracks and Brown usually has them ready to fire off break..

Most Likely: #3 Nicole H 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1a C C's Pal 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 Kid Kate 6-1 5th


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #6 Go for Two 5-1 9th
Best Value: #2 Busterella 10-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Astonish 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Magic Middleton 5-2 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6
8: 3-12-14
9: 1-3-4
10: 2-4-6-9

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Gambler's Beauty 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Yodelin Moon 5-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Ella Bea Awesome 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Graduator 5-1 6th


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Starry Skies 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Lady Ten 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Self Preservation 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 She Spirit di Su 8-1 6th


8th: 59th Californian (G2), 9f (DD)

Game On Dude returns after ill-advised Dubai trip and note that he has never fired best shots off breaks. Shirreffs has had quirky Morning Life drill 3 times since 5/5/12 Mervyn LeRoy and you can expect a top try. Kettle Corn cost me a big HOL P4 when winning the Native Diver in December and looks to still be improving based on trio of sharp drills himself since LeRoy showing..

Most Likely: #3 Morning Line 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Kettle Corn 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Game On Dude 8-5 WON ($4.00)


9th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Attigirl Meadow 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Not Kidding Around 9-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Luckyvic 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Gypsy Friday 15-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #9 Palace of Wisdom 12-1 11th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-5-8-10
7: 2-4-8
8: 1-3-4-5
9: 4-5

5x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 9th Winning Colors (G3), F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Margolis (#1 Good Deed) looks like only one that can stop Calhoun troika..

Most Likely: #3 Beat the Blues 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Good Deed 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Speedacious 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Gleaming 4-1 4th


7th: 24th Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Noble's Promise (5-2) has to be bet against. Though he also has Warm Hugs in the Mint Julep, Nakatani came out for the ride on Rothko..

Most Likely: #1 Rothko 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #8 Cash Refund 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Will's Wildcat 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Global Power 20-1 7th


8th: 36th Mint Julep (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tapitsfly will SCR in favor of next Saturday's G1 Just a Game at Belmont. Be aware of a lack of pace in here. Hard Seven could grab control and keep going..

Most Likely: #8 Snow Top Mountain 4-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Ravi's Song 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Hard Seven 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Warm Hugs 12-1 7th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Casino Dan 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Mr. Ticket 9-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Tetradrachm 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Quiet Man 7-2 WON ($7.80)


10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 That's Me 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Bellazzeria 12-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Prime Maker 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Yankee Union 7-2 WON ($7.80)


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (DD, Super Hi-5)

Very well-matched set..

Most Likely: #7 Tola 6-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Lindsey's Song 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Harlan Showgirl 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Accent 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #3 Galetoire 8-1 5th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 1-6-8
8: 5-6-8-9
9: 3-4
10: 7
11: 4-5-7-9

3x4x2x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5-6-8-9
9: 3-4
10: 1-3-6-7
11: 4-5-7-9

4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

CD SCR/CHG'S

HOL SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

$49,234 BELMONT CARRYOVER SUNDAY

[tmpg2000]

Steve

That was a good P4 payoff at Belmont considering the 3 favs before the
10th. Didn't see the 3 but was dropping to always playable MDN Spec to MDN Claiming.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tmpg2000

Steve

That was a good P4 payoff at Belmont considering the 3 favs before the
10th. Didn't see the 3 but was dropping to always playable MDN Spec to MDN Claiming.

Also a new gelding..

[tanner12oz]

was also surprised by the potential payouts....didnt hit hit but with the short fields and short prices great value