Del Mar Pick 5 Carryover ($300K+) Early Discussion

[tanner12oz]

love these pick 5's and love them even more when the takeout is lowered and there's over 300,000 to start her off....

Del Mar - August 15, 2012

Race 1 - 2:05 PM
CLAIMING $32,000 – $28,000
Purse $40,000. For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Not Won A Race In 2012. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $32,000, if for $28,000, allowed 2 Lbs. One Mile. (Turf)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Slammer Time (CA) 4/G L $32,000 G K Gomez 124 M F Jones
2 Why Not Be Perfect (KY) 5/H L $32,000 A T Gryder 124 J K Desormeaux
3 Lethal Intent (CA) 4/G L $28,000 E A Maldonado 122 B Abrams
4 Deadly Catch (LA) 5/G L $32,000 A Delgadillo 124 E J Guillot
5 Fire Break (KY) 7/G L $28,000 J J Hernandez 122 T Knight
6 Muny (KY) 7/G L $32,000 J Talamo 124 M R Mitchell
7 Aqua Fever (KY) 4/G L $32,000 M A Pedroza 124 J Mullins


Go to Race: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Del Mar - August 15, 2012
Race 2 - 2:30 PM
MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000 – $18,000
Purse $25,000. For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $20,000, if for $18,000, allowed 2 Lbs. Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 One Lucky Lady (LA) 3/F L $18,000 V Bednar 1117 N Acuna
2 Racy Rosa (CA) 5/M $20,000 B Blanc 124 T R Bell, II
3 Persian Princess (KY) 3/F $20,000 A Bisono 120 J E Kruljac
4 My Moment Too (CA) 3/F $20,000 J Valdivia, Jr. 120 G Papaprodromou
5 Country Soul (KY) 3/F L $18,000 E Flores 1135 D F O'Neill
6 Strike Em' Out (CA) 3/F $20,000 M Garcia 120 J Mullins
7 Robyn On the Go (CA) 6/M L $20,000 J M Scott 124 E Trujillo
8 Oscillator (CA) 3/F $18,000 J J Hernandez 118 J Periban
9 She Can Roar (CA) 5/M L $18,000 A Delgadillo 122 R Becerra
10 Easy El (CA) 3/F $20,000 V Espinoza 120 J M Cassidy
11 Silver Luna (KY) 4/F L $18,000 J Talamo 122 S Knapp
12 Tina's Express (CA) 3/F L $20,000 M A Pedroza 120 J Gutierrez
13 Frank n' Teddy (KY) (AE) 3/F $20,000 C S Nakatani 120 P Miller


Go to Race: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Del Mar - August 15, 2012
Race 3 - 3:00 PM
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $62,500
Purse $73,000. (Plus $21,900 – CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won $10,000 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming,starter Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or Claiming Price $62,500. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners of two races at a mile or over since May 15 Allowed 2 Lbs. Such a race since then Allowed 4 Lbs. Claiming Price $62,500 (Maiden races and Claiming races for $50,000 or less not considered). One Mile. (All Weather Track)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Hoorayforhollywood (KY) 4/C L $0 R Bejarano 120 B Baffert
2 Honour the Deputy (FL) 5/G L $62,500 C S Nakatani 120 J Hollendorfer
3 McKenzies Way (KY) 4/C L $0 G K Gomez 120 M R Mitchell
4 El Gato Malo (KY) 7/G L $62,500 J Talamo 120 C Dollase
5 First Strike (KY) 4/G L $0 A Delgadillo 120 R Diodoro
6 Great Warrior (BRZ) 4/C L $62,500 V Espinoza 120 A C Avila


Go to Race: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
Del Mar - August 15, 2012
Race 4 - 3:30 PM
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Purse $70,000. (Plus $21,000 – CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 118 Lbs. (Non-Starters for a claiming price of $40,000 or less in the last 3 starts preferred). One Mile. (Turf)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Will He Amaze (ON) 2/C M Garcia 118 V Cerin
2 Lawyer Gabe (KY) 2/C C S Nakatani 118 J Bonde
3 Power Broker (KY) 2/C L R Bejarano 118 B Baffert
4 Shining Copper (KY) 2/C D R Flores 118 N D Drysdale
5 Cinco de Mario (KY) 2/C L G K Gomez 118 D F O'Neill
6 Moreno (KY) 2/C L A Delgadillo 118 E J Guillot
7 Money Makin Sam (CA) 2/C L J Talamo 118 D F O'Neill
8 Indycott (KY) 2/C Y Fukunaga 118 R E Mandella
9 Aerial Artist (KY) 2/C M E Smith 118 C O'Callaghan
10 Buckleberry Grey (KY) 2/C V Espinoza 118 D E Hofmans
11 Bacardi Cat Run (KY) (AE) 2/C L C S Nakatani 118 J K Desormeaux
12 Mark's Cat (CA) (AE) 2/C L V Bednar 1117 R W Allen
13 Dancin Upside Down (KY) (AE) 2/C E A Maldonado 118 C O'Callaghan
14 Title Contender (KY) (AE) 2/C L R Bejarano 118 B Baffert


Go to Race: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Del Mar - August 15, 2012
Race 5 - 4:00 PM
CLAIMING $32,000 – $28,000
Purse $45,000. For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward. Weight, 124 Lbs. Non-winners of two races at a mile or over since April 10 Allowed 2 Lbs. Such a race since March 1 Allowed 4 Lbs. Claiming Price $32,000, if for $28,000, allowed 2 Lbs. (Maiden races and Claiming races for $25,000 or less not considered). One Mile. (All Weather Track)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Laura's Pleasure (KY) 5/M L $32,000 J J Hernandez 120 R DeLeon
2 My Gal Candy (KY) 5/M L $32,000 G K Gomez 120 J Hollendorfer
3 Demure Halo (FL) 4/F L $32,000 C S Nakatani 120 C Autrey
4 Inner Groove (KY) 5/M L $32,000 R Bejarano 120 J Carava
5 Dilly's Dancer (KY) 4/F L $32,000 P A Valenzuela 120 D E Keen
6 Around the Twig (KY) 4/F L $32,000 C Sutherland 120 R B Hess, Jr.
7 Town Belle (KY) 4/F L $32,000 J Talamo 120 N D Drysdale

[lemoncrush]

I'm going to try and tackle this.
With a couple days to handicap and build the hype, what do you think the final pot will look like? Over a million?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm going to try and tackle this.
With a couple days to handicap and build the hype, what do you think the final pot will look like? Over a million?

Maybe $2MM..

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Maybe $2MM..

irresistable

[dpkovalesky]

i havent seen a morning line yet, but i think Our Merv in the finale really interests me and might get overlooked.

[Scav]

Good explanation on why its a great play on Wednesday.

http://www.barntowire.com/2012/BPnotes120813.html

[dylbert]

My $27 ticket (or stab) at Wednesday's Del Mar P5 carryover

Race 1 - 2:05 PM
1 Slammer Time (CA) 4/G L $32,000 G K Gomez 124 M F Jones
6 Muny (KY) 7/G L $32,000 J Talamo 124 M R Mitchell
7 Aqua Fever (KY) 4/G L $32,000 M A Pedroza 124 J Mullins

Race 2 - 2:30 PM
5 Country Soul (KY) 3/F L $18,000 E Flores 1135 D F O'Neill
9 She Can Roar (CA) 5/M L $18,000 A Delgadillo 122 R Becerra
12 Tina's Express (CA) 3/F L $20,000 M A Pedroza 120 J Gutierrez

Race 3 - 3:00 PM
1 Hoorayforhollywood (KY) 4/C L $0 R Bejarano 120 B Baffert
2 Honour the Deputy (FL) 5/G L $62,500 C S Nakatani 120 J Hollendorfer
3 McKenzies Way (KY) 4/C L $0 G K Gomez 120 M R Mitchell

Race 4 - 3:30 PM
3 Power Broker (KY) 2/C L R Bejarano 118 B Baffert
4 Shining Copper (KY) 2/C D R Flores 118 N D Drysdale

Race 5 - 4:00 PM
4 Inner Groove (KY) 5/M L $32,000 R Bejarano 120 J Carava

[tanner12oz]

these have been paying VERY WELL even without the carryover...ive seen very logical selections with a favorite or two thrown into the sequence still paying mid 4 digits ($5K)...

even without any bombs away on this and something like favorite and then second, third choice types this could easily see between 5-10k...i freaking LOVE .50 pick 5's

[PatCummings]

There might be love for Baffert in the 4th race, but some strong negative stats considering the move to grass. Last 5 years, Baffert is 1/13 with second time starters being switched to the turf (that was G1 winner Internallyflawless).

[10 pnt move up]

Slammer Time looks like a little bit of a trap to me, have to use in the sequence but I am not keen on the trainer move.

Its actually a very tough sequence. In race 1 just about all of them have run figures that could win the race. In the second leg there is nothing that stands out.

I agree on Baffert, its pretty rare that he gives up this early and goes to turf.

[tanner12oz]

betamerica preview

Two carryovers to choose from when racing resumes Wednesday, August 15 at Del Mar with the Pick-5 first on the menu.

Race one, a claiming race on the turf, starts the pick-5 and right off the bat bettors will have to spread. The morning line favorite is Muny at 5-2 and while the stretch out to a mile helps, he has not won since November 2011 at Hollywood Park. Slammer Time and Aqua Fever fit, but both are coming off of layoffs. The in-form horses are Deadly Catch and Fire Break. Why Not Be perfect is an interesting play at 10-1 on the morning line. He ran a respectable race in his first So Cal effort and moves to a surface where he has been in-the-money in half of his 18 starts.

The second is a maiden claimer for fillies and mares and it may be a good shot to take a chance with first-time-starter Strike Em’ Out for trainer Jeff Mullins. Oscillator is another firster with fast works while Country Soul will improve in her second start. Silver Luna is the morning line favorite at 7-2, but he has also lost more times than the rest of the field’s combined starts.

A one-mile allowance race on the main track is next and expect Hoorayforhollywood to take the lion’s share of the wagering. He makes his second start off a layoff and can win as the favorite. This race also starts the pick-6, which has a carryover of $240,680.

Back on the turf for the fourth race with maiden two-year-old fillies going one mile. Power Broker and Shining Copper are the two second-time starters to use. Shining Copper ran on the turf in her debut while Power Broker ran on the Polytrack at Del Mar. Moreno and Money Makin Sam make their third career start and are bred to handle to the turf.

The final leg of the pick-5, and third leg of the pick-6, is a claiming race at one mile for fillies and mares on the main track. My Gal Candy goes first off-the-claim for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who has won his last two starts at the meet after winning one in his first 30. Inner Grove looked good beating lesser company and now rises in class for new trainer Jack Carava. Town Belle deserves a long shot look if she is ready to run off the long layoff. Demure Halo and Dilly’s Dancer have respectable figures, but the horses from Texas have traditionally not run well at Del Mar.

The pick-5 looks like the bet on Wednesday even with the carryover in the pick-6. The pick-5 is a 50-cent minimum, compared to $2 with the pick-6, and also has a low takeout rate of 14%.

First post on Wednesday at Del Mar and the start of the pick-5 is 5:05 ET. Check BetAmerica on Twitter and Facebook for updates and final picks for the Wednesday card.

[Track Phantom!]

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom!

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

If I had a dollar for everyone that said a sequence looked chalky I'd be able to build a nice ticket.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom!

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

Hey! Look who's back.

You going to be redboarding this one as well?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Slammer Time looks like a little bit of a trap to me, have to use in the sequence but I am not keen on the trainer move.

Its actually a very tough sequence. In race 1 just about all of them have run figures that could win the race. In the second leg there is nothing that stands out.

I agree on Baffert, its pretty rare that he gives up this early and goes to turf.

Couldn't it be just a distance thing instead of a surface thing. The horse isn't bred to want 6 furlongs and the only two turn races right now for babies are on turf.

[tanner12oz]

i haven't really combed it over yet and won't do so till i see the scratch board but i don't see a clear cut "single". ya know the kinda horse that literally everyone has and is the key to the sequence...

i'm looking to spend a few hundred and i'll more then likely be playing something like 1x5x5x5x4..like i said though i haven't really started filtering anything...i've had a couple good ones by using the all or nothing single and spread strategy...the last 2 singles were I'll Have Another and Rothko in another sequence...

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

i havent seen a morning line yet, but i think Our Merv in the finale really interests me and might get overlooked.

wrong sequence

[tanner12oz]

leaning towards Aqua Fever in the 1st...don't like Muny at all...big time odds on habitual money burner....NOPE

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Scav

Couldn't it be just a distance thing instead of a surface thing. The horse isn't bred to want 6 furlongs and the only two turn races right now for babies are on turf.

Maybe a good point, you would think those races are coming.

[santana]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom!

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

People that ask what might this pay ?, Really are kinda nuts. What the F is the difference what it pays ? Worry about hitting it first, then check the tote and see what you get back.
I have a friend or 2 that worry about payoffs while capping a race.....bad move if you ask me....Pik the winners then worry about the payoff..

GL