10/19: Keeneland (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 In Step Dancer 5-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Propelleroneway 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Bold Kitten 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Remember Then 3-1 WON ($8.20)


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Does Dark Nebula have to win here? She's best on paper but note that she finished 2nd a disconcerting 4 times before the maiden breaker. Larry Jones has had a zipless meet (9/0-1-0), but Juliet's Promise (6-1) off the break has potential..

Best Value: #10 Juliet's Promise 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Dark Nebula 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Cataract Canyon 12-1 WON ($17.80)
Super Add: #11 Street Mate 15-1 6th


7th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

I'm calling her Best Value but Colonial Flag will be lower than 6-1..

Best Value: #6 Colonial Flag 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Medolina 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Cato 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Volcat 12-1 9th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Nearly impossible group. If track is slick after rain and with cooler temps, I suppose Imposing Grace could be a wire threat, but she has only succeeded on easy leads. Beyond that, any scenario you come up with can work. As much as I fear dealing with the $7,500 claiming nightcap, this is a spot frought with danger..

Most Likely: #3 Gloat 4-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Langcita 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Fast Bobbi J 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Oaks Lily 12-1 10th


9th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Hard to argue with Chad Brown's success in spots like these (Pianist), but there are 2-3 that are serious contenders with her. Note that plus efforts from Miss Cato/Volcat in the 1st division flatters Pucker Up players Leading Astray and Freedom Reigns..

Best Value: #1 Miz Ida 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #4 Pianist 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Leading Astray 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Dancing Solo 6-1 -


10th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Some finish to a quality sequence..

Best Value: #7 Copper Cascade 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Five Afleet 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Precipice Trail 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #2 Sudden War 4-1 11th


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-9-10
7: 6
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-4-9-12
10: 1-2-6-7

3x1x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-4-9-12
10: 1-2-6-7-8

2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Spill shakes things up badly at KEE.. Rocco hurt as Thermal Cat foes and Coffee Pot people ask out of the 8th with their other starter on the day, Imposing Grace.

[ADJMK]

Good call on Miz Ida. I liked here too but couldn't pull the trigger at 9/2. Seems like you need >10-1 to take a chance on one at Keenland crap shoot.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Good call on Miz Ida. I liked here too but couldn't pull the trigger at 9/2. Seems like you need >10-1 to take a chance on one at Keenland crap shoot.

THX! Crap shoot is right. Beyond the obvious ones, it's like you lay out your net and they have to swim into it to get the big one...

[BigBlue]

I've been trying to think how to explain the Keeneland results. Steve, I think you nailed it.