8/8: Saratoga (Day 18-Mrs. Phipps; Statue of Liberty)

[Kasept]

Weekly Wednesday C/O at Del Mar came off feeling like a big opportunity missed when only one truly hard horse to use on a narrow ticket tripped a payoff of $20k+. Not that I play hunches, but Carla Gaines/Jerry Quinn filly 'Wednesday' (!) was the key to the sequence as she emerged the 6th race winner from a three horse photo at nearly 9-1. The Medaglia d'Oro dilly wasn't 'impossible' but she did need to improve past 4-5 foes to win and she did. The rest of the sextet was pretty mundane as ship-&-win candidate Spring Breeze ($8.60/2nd choice) blitzed the opening leg, Euro import Clenor ($3.80/favorite) proved out, while $7.20 Derek's Girl (2nd choice), $8.60 Concave (Sorrento 2nd fave) and $11.00 Suances Pride (3rd choice) rounded out the evening.

At Saratoga, ATR listeners heard Mike Welsch help you find Belly of the Whale ($11.20) in the opener, but 28-1 Wisdom of Oz was beyond most everyone in the 3rd and kaboshed all the multi-race plays I envisioned. Drum Roll looked like a candidate to win on the front end to me and even stalked early before taking over to post a $15.20 hit. After the ticky-tack DQ of Orino in the Cab Calloway elevated West Hills Giant and Pan Dulce's strong effort for Galluscio in the 6th, improved Sally's Dream won her second in a row for Randi Persaud and Bridgmo. The day had potential to explode when traffic-impeded Terminus (13-1) performed admirably in the 8th, but the photo went to favored Thinking of Girls and meager exotics were the booby prize. Console looked special demolishing the rich ALW 9th and word was clearly out on local boy Kerry Metiver's Professor Chaos (12-1 ML; 4-1 post time) who Abel Lezcano couldn't derail.

Fun day -- and night -- of racing. Hope everyone did well. Another threatening day weather-wise here in upstate NY, but there's a chance the precip arrives after the day's undertaking..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Mrs. Phipps, F&M-4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Wide open and opportunity to play against the ML faves who only look slightly better than pricey alternatives..

Most Likely: #1e Fisher entry 4-1 WON ($7.90)/6th
Best Value: #5 Hunter Forward 20-1 DNF-Fell
Next Best: #6 Cubist 5-1 DNF-Left course
Exotics Use: #9 Well Fashioned 5-2 3rd


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

State bred babies and a more than a bit of guessing game. Donk can win with a firster and Chrysolite a full sis of swiftish MSW Freud's Notebook..

Most Likely: #6 Nutmeg 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Chrysolite 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Miss Narcissist 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Blithely 4-1 2nd


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Colony Strike 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Windswept 2-1 WON ($6.30)


4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

If she were to get in, #12 (AE) Holiday's Jewel (5-2) would become most likely..

Best Value: #2 Rain Forest 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Stick to Your Guns 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 English Rhythm 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Bustle 6-1 6th


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Bluegrass Finish 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Marvin's Miracle 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #6 Cool It 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 John Bailey 5-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4-5-6-7
3: 1
4: 2-6-9-10
5: 1-4-5-6

6x1x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Deep, well-matched set with perhaps 7 of the 10 within a couple lengths of each other and no shortage of pace. Appreciative this isn't in a P4 sequence..

Best Value: #5 Prado Cat 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 More Hundred Acre 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Southern Tier 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Kanturk Kid 6-1 WON ($12.00)


7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 World Premier Gate SCR
Next Best: #2 Cinematize 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Victory Island 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Warrior Marie 15-1 4th


8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Fun wagering affair with 1-4-5-6-7-8-10 most eligible for top pay slots..

Best Value: #10 Newbie 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Golden Galaxy 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Discreet Force 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Miss Da Point 12-1 8th


9th: 11th Statue of Liberty-NYSS, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Adriatic Dream 5-1 6th
Best Value: #8 John's Mariah 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Palace Dreams 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Frosty Bay 7-2 WON ($16.20)
Super Add: #9 Image of Noon 4-1 2nd


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Looks like a scrambler with plenty of pace involved. Last move wins?

Best Value: #4 Bonatini 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Belle of the West 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Scealeile 8-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Yampa River 6-1 4th


<$100/@$50 P4 Plays:

7: 1-2-5
8: 5-6-10
9: 2-3-8 (7-9)
10: 2-3-4-5

3x3x3x4 = 108 x .50 = $54
3x3x5x4 = 180 x .50 = $90


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

$43,304 C/O FRIDAY!