1/25: Gulfstream Park (7th-11th); Santa Anita ($74k C/O)

[Kasept]

Hard to be disappointed with the strong day Thursday at Santa Anita, but also know that a big pay day was well within reach and was missed. The P6 paid $75k to 13 players, at least 2 of which utilized the analysis that offered $29 Awesome Prospect as a major upset candidate in the middle of the sequence. I settled for the $544 5 of 6 conso and $1,488 on the P4 as my own P6 ticket had 3 "A's", 2 "B's" and Only the Gold as a fateful "C". To hit Thursday, the investment had to be closer to $250 or more fortuitous adjustment in the A-B-C priorities. Still, it was a swell afternoon and I'm delighted for the large group of people that appear to have benefitted from the write-up or discussions with Brad Free and Rich Eng on ATR.

Most of all, finding Leo Powell's Awesome Prospect and making him key to plays serves as indisputable evidence that if you do the work associated with the most rewarding elements of handicapping, you will get to winners and impact your bankroll positively. Believe it. Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game.. Meanwhile, the rest of us will do the work, satisfy our intellectual curiosity and enjoy the challenge. Great weekend ahead. Continued good luck to the NHC players!


GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 37th Forward Gal (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Onlyforyou 7-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #2 Aurelia's Belle 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Resistivity 4-1 3rd


8th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 7.5f-T/36' (P4, P3, DD)

Going to figure that Apologize (6-1) gets lost on the board and floats upward to providing an overlay. Filly hales from important Alexander/Groves female line that boasts Blue Hen mare Courtly Dee (Althea, Aquilegia, Twining, Noble Courtier, et al) as 2nd dam. Apologize's own dam Aurelia is a half to both Atelier and Aldiza. There has been plenty of turf success in the family and being by Lemon Drop Kid should help bring it out in Apologize. She's a better horse now then when she tried grass in fall of her 2yo year and seems a viable key in this wide open group..

Best Value: #3 Apologize 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Kipling's Joy 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #9 First Acquital 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Shop Gal 12-1 7th


9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/96' (P3, DD)

Another event where breeding looms, Emollient sister Calm Water (Mott) and Data Link sib Guard the Lines (McGaughey) being the glaring examples. Archangelus is out of Palais Versailles, daughter of the great Versailles Treaty and sister of Saarland and George Vancouver. But the story in this group centers around the breeder/owner who brought you Fort Larned.. and Bayakoa.. and Affluent. Janis Whitham has amassed a remarkable record with a narrow band of stock and there could be a lot of upside in Innate Grace whom Ian Wilkes starts here. While everyone will be familiar with the Juddmonte and Janney produce, many may have forgotten the underappreciated Affluent whose dam Trinity Place (Strawberry Road) was a half sister of Arlucea (Broad Brush), the dam of Fort Larned. Affluent had the misfortune of being a 3yo when Xtra Heat exploded in 2001 and a 4yo when Azeri was going nuts in 2002. But as a sophomore, she won the G1 Queen Elizabeth II (9f-Turf) in October and the G1 La Brea (7f-Dirt) in December. As an older filly and mare, she continued to demonstrate her ability on any surface at varied distance winning the G1 Mabee/Ramona at DMR (9f-Turf) and G1 Santa Monica (7f-Dirt) at SA. She NEVER missed a check in 23 career starts (8-5-4-3-3), hitting the board in 10 of 13 G1's for earnings of just under $1,500,000 for Ron McAnally. Innate Grace is 20-1 and the surface and added ground should suit her..

Best Value: #3 Innate Grace 20-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Calm Water 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Joy's Kitten 5-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Miz Lee 10-1 3rd


10th: 28th Holy Bull (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Fascinating edition of the this Fountain of Youth/Florida Derby prequel with credentialed Cairo Prince meeting a big group of wannabes. Most interesting price prospects are drawn to the very difficult outside in Conquest Titan (12-1) and Intense Holiday (6-1). There's not a great deal of speed involved here and you get the sense that Cairo Prince will be in the best position throughout. Think he's better than Coup de Grace whose reputation took a hit by proxy when Unknown Road embarrassed himself Friday at Fair Grounds. There's no reason that Mr. Speaker -- whose dam Salute is a daughter of Personal Ensign and hence a half to My Flag, Miners Mark, etc. -- shouldn't get over the main track..

Most Likely: #7 Cairo Prince 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #9 Conquest Titan 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Intense Holiday 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Mr. Speaker 5-1 7th


11th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/96' (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Charade 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Stars Collide 8-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #3 Lucky Empress 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Henin 4-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Princess Zaima 12-1 -


<$75 P5 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 10 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 9 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 10 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 1,10,12 with 7,9 with 10 - $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 3,7 with 6,11 with 10 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 4 - $4.00 $0.50 Pick 5 (3/1,7,8,11/11/7/4) Paid $9.60 (4OF5)

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 9 with 1,10,12 with 7,9 with 10 - $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 9 with 3,7 with 6,11 with 10 - $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 9 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 4 - $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 1,10,12 with 6,11 with 10 - $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 1,10,12 with 7,9 with 4 - $6.00 $0.50 Pick 5 (3/1,7,8,11/11/7/4) Paid $9.60 (4OF5)
11 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 3,7 with 6,11 with 4 - $4.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 2,5,6 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 10 - $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 4,5,8 with 7,9 with 10 - $6.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 3,7 with 1,2,8 with 10 - $6.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 3 with 3,8 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 2,3,8 - $12.00

Total: $73.00


<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1 pick P4: 3,8 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 10 - $8.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 10 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 1,10,12 with 7,9 with 10 - $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 3,7 with 11 with 10 - $2.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 4 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 1,10,12 with 7,9 with 10 - $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 3,7 with 11 with 10 - $1.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 9 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 4 - $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 1,10,12 with 11 with 10 - $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 1,10,12 with 7,9 with 4 - $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 3,7 with 11 with 4 - $2.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,5,6 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 10 - $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 4,5 with 7,9 with 10 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 3,7 with 1,6,8 with 10 - $6.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 3,7 with 7,9 with 2,3,8 - $12.00

Total: $67.00



SANTA ANITA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 57th Santa Monica (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (P3)

There's potential for Teddy's Promise and Socialbug to get into a duel here which would open it up for stalking alternatives Iotapa and Heir Kitty. Teddy's Promise crosses the millionaire threshold with a win in what is her final career start..

Most Likely: #2 Teddy's Promise 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Iotapa 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Heir Kitty 3-1 4th


5th: CA SunMill F&M Turf Sprint, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3)

$74k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #8 Unusual Hottie 7-2 4th
Next Best: #7 This Means War 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Heat Du Jour 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Ciao Bella Luna 9-2 WON ($13.00)


6th: CA-MSW, F&M-4+, 6f (P3)

Very tricky group. Tribal Torch could jump forward first time on real dirt. Girl On the Lam with upset potential. Next pair logical and even Benecia Gem, Swiss Heart and Tickle Again may require 'C' coverage..

Most Likely: #5 Tribal Torch 4-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Girl On the Lam 8-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Sea John's Spirit 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Heavens Stairway 4-1 3rd


7th: 1st Cal Cup Oaks, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #13 Swiss Lake Yodeler 7-2 11th
Best Value: #7 Kukaluka 12-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Sprague River 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Cal Gal 12-1 8th


8th: 24th Cal Cup Sprint, 4+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #10 Big Macher 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #6 Cyclometer 2-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Spirit Rules 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Follini 12-1 8th


9th: 24th Cal Cup Turf Classic, 4+, 9f-T (DD)

Question here is simply if Summer Hit gets any pressure on front end. If not, he'll wire. Weewinnin may not want this kind of trip, but could be the one that takes some starch out of the fave for Jules Journey, Tiz a Minister, Huntsville, China Prince or Stoney Fleece..

Most Likely: #1 Summer Hit 7-2 9th
Best Value: #9 China Prince 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Huntsville 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Jules Journey 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Tiz a Minister 6-1 13th


10th: 1st Cal Cup Derby, 3yo, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 California Chrome 7-2 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #8 Awesome Return 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Tamarando 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Life Is a Joy 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Aotearoa 10-1 -


<$175 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $2.00

A's with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 7 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $2.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 3,4,7 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $6.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 7,8 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $4.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 6,9 with 1 with 7 - $4.00
6 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 5,9 with 7 - $4.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 4,8 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

8 $2.00 pick P6: 7 with 3,4,7 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $6.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 7 with 5 with 7,8 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $4.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 7 with 5 with 13 with 6,9 with 1 with 7 - $4.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 7 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 5,9 with 7 - $4.00
12 $2.00 pick P6: 7 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 4,8 - $4.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 3,4,7 with 7,8 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $12.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 3,4,7 with 13 with 6,9 with 1 with 7 - $12.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 3,4,7 with 13 with 10 with 5,9 with 7 - $12.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 3,4,7 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 4,8 - $12.00
17 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 7,8 with 6,9 with 1 with 7 - $8.00
18 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 7,8 with 10 with 5,9 with 7 - $8.00
19 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 7,8 with 10 with 1 with 4,8 - $8.00
20 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 6,9 with 5,9 with 7 - $8.00
21 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 6,9 with 1 with 4,8 - $8.00
22 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 5,9 with 4,8 - $8.00

A's with One C

23 $2.00 pick P6: 2,3,11 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $6.00
24 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 2,6,8 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $6.00
25 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 4,6,12 with 10 with 1 with 7 - $6.00
26 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 1 with 1 with 7 - $2.00
27 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 7,8 with 7 - $4.00
28 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 13 with 10 with 1 with 2,6 - $4.00

Total: $172.00


<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.50 pick P4: 13 with 10 with 1 with 4,7,8 - $4.50

A's with One B

2 $1.00 pick P4: 7,8 with 10 with 1 with 4,7,8 - $6.00
3 $1.00 pick P4: 13 with 6,9 with 1 with 4,7,8 - $6.00
4 $1.00 pick P4: 13 with 10 with 5,7,8,9 with 4,7,8 - $12.00
5 $1.00 pick P4: 13 with 10 with 1 with 2 - $1.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 6,9 with 1 with 4,7,8 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 10 with 5,7,8,9 with 4,7,8 - $12.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 10 with 1 with 2 - $1.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 13 with 6,9 with 5,7,8,9 with 4,7,8 - $12.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 13 with 6,9 with 1 with 2 - $1.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 13 with 10 with 5,7,8,9 with 2 - $2.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6,12 with 10 with 1 with 4,7,8 - $4.50
13 $0.50 pick P4: 13 with 1,3 with 1 with 4,7,8 - $3.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 13 with 10 with 11 with 4,7,8 - $1.50
15 $0.50 pick P4: 13 with 10 with 1 with 6 - $0.50

Total: $73.00


Good luck!
Steve

[Alabama Stakes]

I know one thing, if I was one of those 13 who hit that pick 6 cause of you boss, i would slap a stack of ten grand right on your forehead. I know you don't do all this tireless work for the masses for appreciation, but you are underappreciated by too many. How do have enough time to cap, do a radio show, post here, stay married, and stay friends with so many people ? And you even put up with mooks like me, plus assorted wise guys and ne'er do wells ? You are the real boss...El Jefe grande.

[Kasept]

Very kind. Thanks..

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

[tanner12oz]

Steve any insight on the ladies classic at Sam Houston tonight?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Steve any insight on the ladies classic at Sam Houston tonight?

Haven't looked yet...

[Kasept]

Terrific ALW win from Top Billing. As discussed on ATR, we get opportunity to compare this set (1:42.66) to the Holy Bull in 3 hours..

Guesswork, but loose splits from Top Billing before charts:

:25.0
:23.4
:23.1
:30.3 (:24.0 + :06.3)

Trakus splits:

:24.4
:23.2
:23.2
:31.0 (:24.2 + :6.3).

[The Devil]

He looked really good !

[Kasept]

VIDEO: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-gp-on-1-25-14

[Kasept]

Tom Bush winner a dagger..

[ADJMK]

6 FURLONGS STAKES. What a Summer S. . FOR FILLIES AND MARES

Winning Image 9.40 3.60 3.20
Way to go Tony. Gary Stevens move over.

[Kasept]

$431k SUNDAY DBL SANTA ANITA C/O!