Winning the Derby the hard way

[Calzone Lord]

Even though the pace wasn't all that crazy fast, and even though California Chrome enjoyed a very ideal trip, it is fair to say that he was a conclusive winner of the Derby and he did it "the hard way"

Anyone with even a basic understanding of dirt racing knows how important early speed and tactical speed is. Horses who possess those stylistic gifts enjoy a huge advantage over one-dimensional closers and plodding-type of horses.

However, that is simply not the case in the Kentucky Derby. You can find many recent examples of stretch-running types and hapless plodders who ran the races of their lives in the Derby only to immediately revert back to their previous form in subsequent races. E.g., Golden Soul, Ice Box, Giacomo, Impeachment, and Steppenwolfer.

One dimensional closers and plodders simply aren't as disadvantaged in the Derby, as they are in other dirt races. Early speed horses and tactical speed horses simply don't have the same type of advantage they possess in dirt races with smaller fields. This is due to the large field size, all stretch-outs.

California Chrome was never more than 2 lengths back at any point in the Derby. I've judged his Kentucky Derby speed figure very harshly in relation to past Kentucky Derby winners...but it is fair to say that he won the race "the hard way" from a positioning standpoint.

Check out these charts:











In the final chart, note that 7 of the 8 horses in category one would eventually become champion three-year-olds. 4 of the 6 horses in category two would eventually become champion three-year-olds. And just 1 horse of the 9 in the final category, would eventually become the champion three-year-old.

In the case of Orb, not only was he in the final category, but he was also aided by a pace that was one of the most wickedly fast in Derby history. He finished 4th beaten 9 lengths at 3/5 odds in the Preakness and actually even let the three-year-old championship slip away from him.

I will be betting against California Chrome in the Preakness -- but make no mistake, any horse who wins the Kentucky Derby from up-close, absolutely did it the hard way and deserves respect for it. Yes, his time sucked. But he would utterly clobber a one-dimensional closer like Commanding Curve, in a race where his tactical superiority would be properly rewarded.

[Benny]

What charts ?

[tanner12oz]

good info...plus 188 roi is pretty good

[tector]

Awesome post, sir.

[casp0555]

good info Doug...thanks for posting

[asudevil]

Great stuff....Maybe WPT and Dallas Stewart had these stats thus deciding to pass on Baltimore.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Great stuff....Maybe WPT and Dallas Stewart had these stats thus deciding to pass on Baltimore.

They won the Derby? Could have sworn they were 2nd..

Even if Commanding Curve does something positive at Belmont, passing Preakness, with what is expected to be an advantageous pace scenario, was a mistake.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Kasept

They won the Derby? Could have sworn they were 2nd..

Even if Commanding Curve does something positive at Belmont, passing Preakness, with what is expected to be an advantageous pace scenario, was a mistake.

No, he didn't win the derby, but the 10+ lengths back suggest he would not be successful in Charm City.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asudevil

No, he didn't win the derby, but the 10+ lengths back suggest he would not be successful in Charm City.

It cannot suggest that at all. The statistics Doug employs above focus on the winner of the race. What transpired behind winners and their subsequent Baltimore performance is an entirely different study.

[Calzone Lord]

Since 1989, here's a list of all horses who closed 10 or more lengths to make the Derby Superfecta and run again in a triple crown race. The result of their next start is in parenthesis.

Orb (4th as the 3/5 favorite in Preakness)

Golden Soul (9th at 11/1 odds in Belmont Stakes)

Revolutionary (5th at 5/1 odds in the Belmont)

Dullahan (7th as 5/2 favorite in Belmont)

Went The Day Well (10th at 5/1 in Preakness)

Ice Box (9th in Belmont as the 9/5 favorite)

Make Music For Me (10th in Belmont at 12/1 odds)

Mine That Bird (2nd in Preakness at 6/1 odds)

Denis Of Cork (2nd in Belmont at 7/1 odds)

Street Sense (2nd in Preakness as 6/5 favorite)

I'mawildandcrazyguy (6th in Belmont at 9/1)

Giacomo (3rd in Preakness at 6/1)

Monarchos (6th in Preakness at 2/1 co-favorite)

Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd in Preakness at 1/5 favorite)

Impeachment (3rd in Preakness at 19/1)

Victory Gallop (2nd as 2/1 favorite)

Sea Hero (5th in the Preakness at 4/1)

Prairie Bayou (Won the Preakness as 2/1 favorite)

Strike The Gold (6th in the Preakness as 9/5 favorite)

Green Alligator (10th in the Belmont Stakes at 4/1 odds)

Unbridled (2nd in Preakness as the 8/5 favorite)

21-1-6-2 (9 beaten favorites)

Lone winner 2/1 favorite Prairie Bayou won Preakness over sprinter Cherokee Run and Robert Perez's El Bakan, a horse who later competed in $3,000 claiming races.

[Kasept]

Orb (4th as the 3/5 favorite in Preakness)
Went The Day Well (10th at 5/1 in Preakness)
Mine That Bird (2nd in Preakness at 6/1 odds)
Street Sense (2nd in Preakness as 6/5 favorite)
Giacomo (3rd in Preakness at 6/1)
Monarchos (6th in Preakness at 2/1 co-favorite)
Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd in Preakness at 1/5 favorite)
Impeachment (3rd in Preakness at 19/1)
Victory Gallop (2nd in Preakness as 2/1 favorite)
Sea Hero (5th in the Preakness at 4/1)
Prairie Bayou (Won the Preakness as 2/1 favorite)
Strike The Gold (6th in the Preakness as 9/5 favorite)
Unbridled (2nd in Preakness as the 8/5 favorite)


Golden Soul (9th at 11/1 odds in Belmont Stakes)
Revolutionary (5th at 5/1 odds in the Belmont)
Dullahan (7th as 5/2 favorite in Belmont)
Ice Box (9th in Belmont as the 9/5 favorite)
Make Music For Me (10th in Belmont at 12/1 odds)
Denis Of Cork (2nd in Belmont at 7/1 odds)
I'mawildandcrazyguy (6th in Belmont at 9/1)
Green Alligator (10th in the Belmont Stakes at 4/1 odds)

Preakness: 13/1-5-2
Belmont: 8/0-1-0

Thanks for doing the exercise Doug.. Further confirmation that Commanding Curve's better chance might have come Saturday in Baltimore.

[Calzone Lord]

I agree with you, Steve.

Especially in light of the historical stats above being general.

The 2014 Derby pace...by past Derby pace standards, was slow. The expectations are that the 2014 Preakness pace will be hot.

Still, Commanding Curve can beat me. Dallas Stewart has had uncanny success with plodders at Churchill Downs. And Derby closers have a tremendously poor record, from a general standpoint.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Since 1989, here's a list of all horses who closed 10 or more lengths to make the Derby Superfecta and run again in a triple crown race. The result of their next start is in parenthesis.

Orb (4th as the 3/5 favorite in Preakness)

Golden Soul (9th at 11/1 odds in Belmont Stakes)

Revolutionary (5th at 5/1 odds in the Belmont)

Dullahan (7th as 5/2 favorite in Belmont)

Went The Day Well (10th at 5/1 in Preakness)

Ice Box (9th in Belmont as the 9/5 favorite)

Make Music For Me (10th in Belmont at 12/1 odds)

Mine That Bird (2nd in Preakness at 6/1 odds)

Denis Of Cork (2nd in Belmont at 7/1 odds)

Street Sense (2nd in Preakness as 6/5 favorite)

I'mawildandcrazyguy (6th in Belmont at 9/1)

Giacomo (3rd in Preakness at 6/1)

Monarchos (6th in Preakness at 2/1 co-favorite)

Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd in Preakness at 1/5 favorite)

Impeachment (3rd in Preakness at 19/1)

Victory Gallop (2nd as 2/1 favorite)

Sea Hero (5th in the Preakness at 4/1)

Prairie Bayou (Won the Preakness as 2/1 favorite)

Strike The Gold (6th in the Preakness as 9/5 favorite)

Green Alligator (10th in the Belmont Stakes at 4/1 odds)

Unbridled (2nd in Preakness as the 8/5 favorite)

21-1-6-2 (9 beaten favorites)

Lone winner 2/1 favorite Prairie Bayou won Preakness over sprinter Cherokee Run and Robert Perez's El Bakan, a horse who later competed in $3,000 claiming races.

Jazil??

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Jazil??

Jazil didn't close 10 or more lengths. In the Derby, he was 17 lengths back at furthest deficit, and was beaten 9.5 lengths.

The most interesting thing about Jazil, the Derby pace his year was quite slow by Derby standards. But the Belmont pace was Supersonic and he actually got the better pace setup over the longer distance!