Breeders Cup M/L Odds

Lets see if we can predict some M/L odds for horses that are pointed to their respective race: Not neccesarliy the fav. Just some odds.

Classic - Bernardini - Even Money
Mile - Aragorn 3-1 and Gorella - 5-1
Turf - Hurrican Run - 5-1, Shirroco - 9/2, English Channel - 7-1
Filly Turf - Wait A While - 3-1, Gorella 7/2
Sprint - Henny Hughes 5/2
Juve Males - Who knows
Juve Females - Point Ashley 9/2

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Lets see if we can predict some M/L odds for horses that are pointed to their respective race: Not neccesarliy the fav. Just some odds.

Classic - Bernardini - Even Money
Mile - Aragorn 3-1 and Gorella - 5-1
Turf - Hurrican Run - 5-1, Shirroco - 9/2, English Channel - 7-1
Filly Turf - Wait A While - 3-1, Gorella 7/2
Sprint - Henny Hughes 5/2
Juve Males - Who knows
Juve Females - Point Ashley 9/2

Wait a While the favorite over Gorella and Ouija Board? I hope so!

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Wait a While the favorite over Gorella and Ouija Board? I hope so!

Maybe not the fav. I think Oujia Board will be 2-1. I just put up some horses, not neccesarily the favs.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Maybe not the fav. I think Oujia Board will be 2-1. I just put up some horses, not neccesarily the favs.

Yeah, I know I'm going to be a little torn trying to bet this race. I'm a big Ouija Board fan, and I expect her to be the favorite. But if Wait a While drifts up to a nice prce, I'd be tempted to bet her.

[Gander]

Henny Hughes 5/2, no way Jose. Now that hes beaten older very good sprinters, dont expect anything over 7/5. Hes done more than Lost in the Fog did last year at this time so expect his price to be as low or lower than Fogs.
I wouldnt be surprised if he was even money.

Who else is their: Bordonaro, Siren Lure, War Front, Pomeroy. Thats about it.

Originally Posted by Gander

Henny Hughes 5/2, no way Jose. Now that hes beaten older very good sprinters, dont expect anything over 7/5. Hes done more than Lost in the Fog did last year at this time so expect his price to be as low or lower than Fogs.
I wouldnt be surprised if he was even money.

Who else is their: Bordonaro, Siren Lure, War Front, Pomeroy. Thats about it.

You think he will be 7/5 m/l? No way does that happen. I have never seen a horse that low in the m/l for a Breeders Cup race.

[ninetoone]

Better Talk Now, 14-1....back up the trucks baby!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Lets see if we can predict some M/L odds for horses that are pointed to their respective race: Not neccesarliy the fav. Just some odds.

Classic - Bernardini - Even Money
Mile - Aragorn 3-1 and Gorella - 5-1
Turf - Hurrican Run - 5-1, Shirroco - 9/2, English Channel - 7-1
Filly Turf - Wait A While - 3-1, Gorella 7/2
Sprint - Henny Hughes 5/2
Juve Males - Who knows
Juve Females - Point Ashley 9/2

Dreaming of Anna will be ML favorite of Juv Fillies...she SMOKED males on the turf last time and has won on dirt also

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Turf - Hurrican Run - 5-1, Shirroco - 9/2

the euros don't have it this year. they will be over bet because of their 1-4 sweep last year. if EC is 7-1 like you say i'll bet the ranch on him. where were HR & Shirroco in the arc? if the turf is firm....the best bet all day is a cacique/EC exacta box. bank on it.

[randallscott35]

You'll see 3/5 on Bernie or less at racetime. No question.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Gander

Henny Hughes 5/2, no way Jose. Now that hes beaten older very good sprinters, dont expect anything over 7/5. Hes done more than Lost in the Fog did last year at this time so expect his price to be as low or lower than Fogs.
I wouldnt be surprised if he was even money.

Who else is their: Bordonaro, Siren Lure, War Front, Pomeroy. Thats about it.

I tend to agree with this line of thought,
which is very good considering I think he can be beat.
Bordonaro is the most likely winner of the race imo.


Repent

[repent]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You'll see 3/5 on Bernie or less at racetime. No question.

My wagering day will be centered around the belief that the Euros are superior to the US horses this year on the turf.
Alexandrova and the outcome of the Mile will make or break my day.

Repent

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by repent

I tend to agree with this line of thought,
which is very good considering I think he can be beat.
Bordonaro is the most likely winner of the race imo.


Repent

Repent -

Spawr said he's leaning towards not running Bordonaro in the Sprint.

[repent]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Repent -

Spawr said he's leaning towards not running Bordonaro in the Sprint.

yeah,
I saw that and watched him on TVG after the race.
Im just saying that if he runs, he is the most likely winner.
same way I feel about Libbretist in the Mile.
races like the BCS just make me nervous.
if Bordonaro does not run, then you either single HHughes or you go "all".
I'll probably go all anyway.

Repent

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

Henny Hughes 5/2, no way Jose. Now that hes beaten older very good sprinters, dont expect anything over 7/5. Hes done more than Lost in the Fog did last year at this time so expect his price to be as low or lower than Fogs.
I wouldnt be surprised if he was even money.

Who else is their: Bordonaro, Siren Lure, War Front, Pomeroy. Thats about it.

The Sprint is so often a full-field free-for-all. It's the easiest race for a horse to find trouble in. I don't think we will see a 7/5 ML in a 14-horse Sprint field. If we do, and it holds up at the windows, I'd be betting heavily against.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The Sprint is so often a full-field free-for-all. It's the easiest race for a horse to find trouble in. I don't think we will see a 7/5 ML in a 14-horse Sprint field. If we do, and it holds up at the windows, I'd be betting heavily against.

--Dunbar

Bingo, someone mentions field size.
In the "good old days" before the Breeders Cup destroyed year long racing, horses had to travel to meet one another throughout the year in order to try and win titles and accolades. Guys also took shots with horse in spots where they appeared overmatched, because thats just what trainers did.
Fields in grade one events thoroughout the year were full more often than not, and win streaks were hard to come by. This was a direct result of field size. Any handicapper who watches races can tell you that big faves are best attempted to try and beat when there is a big field. Big fields often lead to trouble trips, and most often an honest and contested pace. Horses who had big win streaks back in the old days were the GOODS, because they often had to overcome troubled trips and less than ideal paces for their running styles.
If you take a look at recent "upsets" in Grade one races, they most often are not as big an upset as one would imagine, and also usually occur in large fields.
Lets take the 2005 Derby with Giacomo. Giacomo was given a fast pace to try and run down, a pace he hasnt seen since then. Hes not great, but chances are with bigger average fields that he may have caught another pace like that. Pleasant Home was always a talented filly, and it came as no shock to those of us who liked her last year that she won at an incredible 35-1. She had always displayed talent but a confirmed late running style. She had been mired in races with soft paces, short fields, or both. Cup day gives you full fields no matter what, so more often a horse who is a closer actually gets a pace to run down.
The reason that these "big days" like Travers Day and Gold Cup day have turned into 3-5 festivals is field size. The favorite almost always gets some sort of reasonable trip and pace scenario to run with. They don't have to overcome adversity or racing luck in order to win.
Its why the BC often yields longshots. there simply is no way to "simulate" a 12 horse field with a hotter pace and traffic trips in morning training, no way at all. Because of that horses who have been receiving ideal trips in moderately paced races are now encountering something new. It opens the doors for horses to close, and for horses who are marginally behind the faves in terms of talent to trip out.
The larger the filed size, the more variables you have thrown into the mix. The more variables thrown into the mix the more varied the outcome is.
If there is one reason to wager heavier on Cup day than any other day, its because of the actual possibility than a horse who appears overmatched on paper can actually win or hit the board at a square price.

[jpops757]

With all the Henny hoopa;a it seems that Pomeroy is the forgotten horse.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by jpops757

With all the Henny hoopa;a it seems that Pomeroy is the forgotten horse.

Did they move the BC to Saratoga?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I kind of agree with you. He obviously is a Spa freak, but he ran well at Calder, and might be a real intersting stab at what should be real nice odds.

Doesn't Calder typically play a lot more like Saratoga than Churchill does?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Tough to say, Calder IMO is usually kind to speed, and I believe the weekend the Forego was run this year was also very kind to speed to say the least. Also, Churchill had been like a drag strip recently on big days so who knows? But the horse is in very good hands, and I think he has a real upset shot in the sprint. I think Henny gets beat. he is an awesome horse, but in a 14 horse field, one thing goes wrong, and it's over.

I agree that Pomeroy still has a shot but I think he'll be 6-1 or 8-1 and a play against at those odds. Give me 12-1 or more and I'll definitely be interested.