Bet Mix

[pick4money]

Starting to play around with this software. Anyone have any experience, thoughts, or tips to share?? Thanks in advance.

[Easy Goer Otis]

I love Betmix and use it all the time, basically as a race simulator. Here's how I use it:

For a meet you follow closely (in my case, AP, Haw, Rem, OP):

I use mixmaker to build a database of mixes based on conditions and distance of the race types at those tracks (i.e 6f dirt sprints for claimers 10-25k) Then apply those mixes to the race you are 'capping and stick it on the BetPad. I run as many mixes as horses in the race.

This provides a set of simulations. I use it in to guide my wagering in two ways:

1) If a single horse keeps popping up as the winner in every simulation, he's probably a favorite I'm going to have trouble beating. Or on the positive side, maybe worth using as a single in multi race wagers.

2) if a long shot pops up 2-3 times, I'm looking hard at that horse.

For stakes races and graded events:

I keep a database of graded stakes mixes that I apply to all the big races. For example, I ran simulations on on all the Breeders Cup races using the 2012 and 2013 BC mixes. It gave me Bayern in the Classic, as I recall.

It's also fun to run mixes of the prep races and apply them to the big race and see if the original winner of each prep race still pops up.

Two caveats:

1) it's not as predictive for 2YO maiden races, as the more past performance data, the better Betmix works.

2) European data is not integrated, so I don't use it for any races containing shippers from foreign countries, unless they have a few races on American turf/soil.

It's a neat tool. I am always maxed out at 200 mixes. Wish they would let you do more.

Have fun with it, and good luck!

Cheers,

Otis

[Easy Goer Otis]

Just ran my mixes on the Marshua and Ft.Lauderdale stakes at GP:

MARSHUA

ALL simulations predict the favorite Parranda as the winner. He will be hard to beat.

FT LAUDERDALE

This projects as a more wide open race. I ran 14 mixes with numerous horses coming out on top:

#14 Protonico (5 times a simulated winner) 2-1 ML
#1 Silver Freak (5) 15-1
#2 Lochte (1) 6-1
#4 Howe Great (1) 15-1
#7 Grand Tito (1) 15-1
#11 Za Approval (1) 5-2

In this case, I am going to look very hard at Silver Freak, who at 15-1 pops out as the winner in just as many simulations as 2-1 Protonico. I will also consider the 2, 4, 7 in exotics or multi-race tickets.

Note that Silver Freak wins the simulation using the 2014 Ft Lauderdale mix, while Protonico wins using the 2013 Ft Lauderdale mix.

Cheers,

Otis

[dellinger63]

2) European data is not integrated, so I don't use it for any races containing shippers from foreign countries, unless they have a few races on American turf/soil.

Summer Moon FR ??

What I particularly like about this euro shipper is his propensity to run on or near the lead which, I consider a huge plus on this front running, biased, turf course.

[Easy Goer Otis]

Summer Moon is exactly the kind of horse you need to consider independently when using this software. Good catch, dell!

O

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Easy Goer Otis

Just ran my mixes on the Marshua and Ft.Lauderdale stakes at GP:

MARSHUA

ALL simulations predict the favorite Parranda as the winner. He will be hard to beat.

FT LAUDERDALE

This projects as a more wide open race. I ran 14 mixes with numerous horses coming out on top:

#14 Protonico (5 times a simulated winner) 2-1 ML
#1 Silver Freak (5) 15-1
#2 Lochte (1) 6-1
#4 Howe Great (1) 15-1
#7 Grand Tito (1) 15-1
#11 Za Approval (1) 5-2

In this case, I am going to look very hard at Silver Freak, who at 15-1 pops out as the winner in just as many simulations as 2-1 Protonico. I will also consider the 2, 4, 7 in exotics or multi-race tickets.

Note that Silver Freak wins the simulation using the 2014 Ft Lauderdale mix, while Protonico wins using the 2013 Ft Lauderdale mix.

Cheers,

Otis

Wouldn't it have been useful to exclude Protonico, who was an MTO? Also find it interesting that the software didn't point to the pretty clear horse to beat, and eventual winner, Mshawish.

[Easy Goer Otis]

You can exclude horses easily that you want to toss.

I use Betmix as a guideline rather than a definitive ticketmaker.

It is weird how it popped Parranda but not Mshawish.

O