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#1
10-15-2006, 12:24 PM
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Your approach and type?
Sorry if this question has been wheeled out pover and over again every month, but I'm curious to know 2 things about you-
Based on all the picks and selections that I see on here for upcoming races: 1) Do you guys handicap races the night/morning before the races, or is there anyone else like me that doesn't touch a DRF until about 10 minutes to post time? I can't ever put in my 2 cents (except on BC and TC days) unless you asked me about 5 minutes before race time. I wanna know all the factors going right beofre races time. Track condition, scratches, odds,potential payoffs, everything. Morning Lines can be too misleading for that. 2) What kinda of betting do you guys do? I usually do Exacta and Tri Box's, and WP bets on longshots. I don't usually touch Supers, or Doubles, and Pick "#'s" 3) What do you guys usually do better with? Do you guys have better success betting the Belmonts, Gulfstreams, the more established tracks, or the crap tracks? Or do you have a style that seems to work well for both (don't give a pompass answer to this pelase)? I say this time and time again, but I do so much better betting 5k claimers at Mountaineer than I ever do at Belmont. Longshots pop everywhere, but at crappier tracks I think they hit more often. 4) any betting advice... on anything for me? We have some of the best minds in the sport in this forum. Your advice is valued...
__________________
Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... 
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#2
10-15-2006, 01:50 PM
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Small tracks vs. Large tracks, just look for winners / the best horse in the race where ever it is.
Don't depend on the odds board to show you the way to the winners circle. Don't bet a 6/1 horse that won't win because you can't see betting a 6/5 horse that is going to win. Pick your spots. I mix trip handicapping with pace/class. I spend my time in the paddock looking for horses that want to run today. Last Keep your day job. It has helped me.
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#3
10-15-2006, 02:13 PM
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First look for value, horses whose odds are better than their chances. I like to stick with just a few tracks, big or small, just to know the jockeys, trainers, and bias better.
Above all, money management, don't play every race. Pick your spots. And, keep track of your bets so you know or can learn where you are strongest, sprints, turf, etc.
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#4
10-15-2006, 02:19 PM
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Pete,
I love the title of this thread. 
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#5
10-15-2006, 02:25 PM
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I'm with you on that. Approach---very carefully. Mumble something. Smile. Type---females only. Breathing better than other option. Excess leg hair is a turn-off. Trimmed moustaches...ok.
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#6
10-15-2006, 02:27 PM
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Quote:
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#7
10-15-2006, 02:30 PM
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#8
10-15-2006, 02:35 PM
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To answer Pete's original question, I'm a lousy handicapper. I do EXTREMELY well looking at horse's in the post parade and I would say 7 times out of 10 I can pick the top two or three just by looking at that. I normally do ok in the derby (minus Bellamy Road  ), but normally I'll look at pp's the day before and then again about 15 minutes before. There is a wealth of knowledge on this message board. If you really read in between the lines, there are several members on here that can give out some good ones...
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#9
10-15-2006, 02:56 PM
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Here I thought we could hijack the thread...but back to the topic. I also like to look at them in the paddock. I narrow them down the day before. One of the big keys to me is to find a few horses that you like and follow them. They ship all over the place. For example, a winner yesterday shipped down from Finger Lakes to Meadowlands. Winner. Some also come across from Belmont. If you follow them there and see them come across the river...might be worth a look. It also doesn't hurt to have info from some friends that work in the biz. An example of that is Toss the Feather...runs Wed. Stevie Ray gone was one of my picks today...got out good but faded...maybe next. Now here's another I'll be looking for...Lil Henry cause two of mine are by his sire. He did pretty nicely last out. As far as bets...usually I play win and exactas...especially when there's a beatable favorite.. example: Sutra yesterday in the Friz...Paid $27. Who cares if it was slow if you got that price? I put that pick in the "help each other thread".
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#10
10-15-2006, 03:12 PM
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By the way, it doesn't matter whether it's a big track or one of the lesser ones. You'll see horses move between both.
I also didn't mention that Lil Henry is at Finger Lakes. Another one that is worth watchin' is Best Offer. This one ran at Great Lakes on 10/4 and finished 2nd in the 6th.
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#11
10-15-2006, 03:56 PM
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Should have given out the name of the Finger Lakes shipper/winner.
El Prado Rob...winner, race 7 at Meadowlands 10/14.
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#12
10-15-2006, 05:51 PM
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Glad you started this thread, something I have been thinking a lot about.
I relish every chance I get to pick up the form the day before I play. What I love to do is that night I will go thru and pick the races I will focus on and just browse thru, making a few notes. Then, in the morning, I will go back and pick my races, as well as my horses I am interested in using. I will then, on the ones I am not sure about, go back and watch some replays of their previous races looking for an angle, albeit with my limited race watching experience. After that I construct my wagers based on my info at hand, and head to the track or computer to get scratches, etc.. I am a firm believer that the only way to be "succesful", depending on your definition, is to bet to win. Rarely now do I bet to place unless I am making quick decisions on limited funds. My favorite play is a pick 3 or 4. Now, keep in mind my budget. I set aside $40 - $100 a week for gambling. I have been fortunate the last couple of weeks which has allowed me to gamble upwards of $100 a week. Now, I see that my luck is starting to turn the other way. I am A FIRM BELIEVER IN THE Pick 3 and Pick 4. Strictly from this angle, risk versus reward. I have found that I get the best results playing the same 1 or 2 tracks thru the course of a meet. That way you can follow the track bias, trainer angles, jockey angles etc. I am a rookie at this but am learning every single day. Why? Because even on days I don't play I go back and watch the races from the 2 tracks I am focusing and wagering on, to try and stay in the game. However, if I am at Beulah, my home track, I will go to the paddock and watch the horses. On Friday I looked at a horse and it was fit, but the odds did not reflect it. I felt fairly confident and put $5 to win on it. This horse won and paid $44. You can score at the "lower" level tracks. It is all about finding what works for you and sticking with it. Read every book you can get your hands on and read what these very knowledgable posters on here say and with time we will become better and better at this game.
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#13
10-15-2006, 07:29 PM
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Those words you said are just about the best ones I've heard here in a very long time, and THANKS!!!!! You said it..."It's all about finding what works for you and sticking with it". Or as Kent would say....ITTTft's alpll abuohgt finmdimg whhatgt swoourks for youn aanmmd stickkkkkuinnnn g wwith it"...Yuppiu dpon't evenk kkn oow the presusure!!!.
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#14
10-15-2006, 07:48 PM
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The first and foremost rule on gambling on horses I have is you have to know when to pass on a race. Don't be a chalk eating weasel. This is a high risk/high reward gamble, betting a box tri costing $12 to win $17 is not a wise manuever and races like that are a pass. You have to determine "value". Value is a subjective term, GM's in baseball toss it around all the time. In the end, would it be better to sign Barry Zito for $15m/per or sign Ted Lilly for $6m/per who has the same relative perpherial numbers and has pitched consistently in a difficult division in the AL East? In horse racing terms, the bet to win on Zito is 8-5 and Lilly is 5-1. Put me down for $100 win on Lilly then if I believe in him and can come up with a plausible scenario where he wins the "race". Thats the difference between winning $3,000 or losing $100 on the chalk. I'd rather risk $100 to win $3,000 than risk $100 to win $1,300. Risk vs Reward. Yesterday's Champagne was a great example. No Biz like Showbiz was hammered down to 8-5. Granted his maiden was an impressive win, but when you look deeper, his times didnt match favorably, his pedigree is suspect for a 2 yr old and the logical choice was Scat Daddy at almost 3-1. That was robbery yesterday. Glad to hear others saw that yesterday (Joel Cunningham being one of them) and jumped all over that. I singled Scat in my NTRA pick 4 and threw down a c note or two on him to win and cashed on both ends. Now I can pad my gambling bankroll going into the Breeders Cup and the holiday season WHICH IS HUGE. I will make any bet that has a reasonable chance to make money. You need to play where you see glaring mistakes by others, like the Champagne. Another good example is the 2003 Belmont which had Funny Cide going for the Triple Crown. Empire Maker was the best horse in that run for the TC. Funny Cide however clearly made his mark and won the Derby and Preakness. Everyone and their mothers were in love with Funny Cide and rightfully so. But, love has no place at the betting window. The logical choice going 1.5 miles was CLEARLY Empire Maker and he went off at 2-1. Funny Cide was 6-5 I think. Be that as it may, I cashed a win ticket on EM. Did I want to see FC win the TC? Absolutely. But I enjoyed the $1500 I pulled down on EM more than the sentiment a win by FC would have created. Good luck out there.
__________________
"Boston fans hate the Yankees, we hate the Canadiens and we hate the Lakers. It's in our DNA. It just is." - Bill Simmons
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#15
10-15-2006, 08:33 PM
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I bet and usually lose. Pic 3's. LOL when I do I have another beer and double up on the next play. Hasn't worked yet but my parents didn't raise a quitter. Anyone going to BC day is welcome to watch my act first hand. At least I'll have a Byk beef with Hooves as a fellow customer. Life is good.
__________________
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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#17
10-15-2006, 08:37 PM
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driving. looks like early Friday. about 10 or so going.
__________________
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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#18
10-15-2006, 08:40 PM
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There's a whole chapter on this in my book, "Redheads, Racing and Risk Management." A few excerpts....
1. Don't wager with anything other than discretionary income. 2. When paying your bills, the most important to pay first is yourself. If you have a 401k at work, max out. Also, go on ahead and open a Roth or Individual IRA where you can contribute even more tax-free money. Don't wait. Start young. Houses ain't getting any cheaper. 3. Play 1 or, at most, 2 tracks. And, of course, do not bet every race. 4. Watch race replays and take trip notes for every horse. If you're serious about finding decent winners at a value price, I do not believe you can do it without a heavy dose of trip handicapping. 5. Use a wager log. Religiously. You will learn what race types you're good at and which you should avoid. 6. If a short priced favorite looks worthy, guess what, it probably is. Pass the race. You cannot beat these races on a single-race basis betting on or against the chalk. 7. Your best single race wager opportunities are those where you are getting good value on your horse and you feel the favorite is a bad one. Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta wagers excluding a bad favorite are solid opportunities. 8. I know a lot of horseplayers and most of them disagree with this next statement... Never bet to place or show. When someone says they bet to place "to get my money back," that really miffs me. Play the game to win. I am very strong in my belief here. I will play my selection second in exactas at times when I toss a bad favorite, but that's as far as I go in terms of putting my money anywhere other than on my selection to win the race. 9. Absolutely do handicap the evening or morning before the races. You need to focus on scratches, changes and value during "track time." When looking at the form initially, find the race you are most UNLIKELY to bet and start there, using it as a sort of warm up. 10. There is nothing at all wrong with going to the track, having a good time, looking at the form for a couple minutes and betting on the races. But you need to recognize that kind of outing for what it is. On this type of betting day, wager small, enjoy yourself and be entertained. But do recognize this is not the same as what needs to be done to wager more significant dollars. good luck.
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#19
10-15-2006, 08:42 PM
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I do a ton of work before ever going to the track. I use the charts to profile the track for preferred running styles for the previous week, and I download Bris Ultimates 24 hours in advance. I guess I need to start incorporating paddock and post parade analysis in my betting, but I just am not educated enough in that aspect of it. The only changes I make as the day goes along relate to the toteboard.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#20
10-15-2006, 10:11 PM
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my handicapping has changed over the last few years to its current form.
a)w/p bets on turf racing and stakes races(non-polytrack stakes) I dont care so much about the price. If Im getting a better price than expected, I may bet more. b)Pick 4's. Best value in all of racing. Only way I have found to show a profit given my moderate handicapping skills. I have a budget(that I stick to) and I try to single in the turf races. If I cant make the ticket fit in my budget, I just skip it. theres always another pick 4 to play. thats it. I dont play anything else, unless its something like the Breeders Cup Pick 6(which I have never and will probably never hit) or something. as for preparation. Its always the night before. I do all my betting online so I do the following: a)check weather reports b)handicap online c)make selections d)write them down e)check scratches at work f) adjust accordingly g)place my bets mid morning if rain comes during the card, Im f*cked. as for tracks, I handicap everything. calder, delaware, suffolk at the start of the week. belmont, oak tree, chicago tracks later in the week. but I may only make 1 or 2 bets a day(be if pick 4 or w/p, or both). thats it. I would not reccommend that anyone follow my routine b/c I really have no idea what Im doing. I have 5% of the experience that a lot of you on the board have. all I know that if I handicap everyday, I cant help but improve. Repent
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