Will we have two women running for President?

[somerfrost]

Hillary Clinton is debating her Republican challenger in New York tonight...seeing as how she has over a 30 point lead in the polls, it would seem the only reasonable explanation would be a "trial run"...I continue to believe she will be the Democratic candidate. Condy Rice is the question...will the republicans counter with her?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

If Conde were to run against Hillary, she wins in a landslide............

Actually I think she can beat anyting the Dems put on the ticket.

Right now I think Gingrich may get the Rep. Nom. but it's very early.

Newt???? You are kidding right??

haha, Newt
Condo is black and a woman
we've never had either and bang, both at the same time?
I don't see that happening
blacks don't vote, and women like men in a position of authority
nobody would ever come out and say that publicly, but it's true

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by BellamyRd.

haha, Newt
Condo is black and a woman
we've never had either and bang, both at the same time?
I don't see that happening
blacks don't vote, and women like men in a position of authority
nobody would ever come out and say that publicly, but it's true

And the winner of the Gross Generalization Award for Friday, October 20th goes to...

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

And the winner of the Gross Generalization Award for Friday, October 20th goes to...

in voting you deal in generalizations basically GR...blacks as a majority do not go out and vote even for a black candidate, and women tend to vote for men as a whole, they basically put Clinton in twice on the women vote alone
all facts!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by BellamyRd.

in voting you deal in generalizations basically GR...blacks as a majority do not go out and vote even for a black candidate, and women tend to vote for men as a whole, they basically put Clinton in twice on the women vote alone
all facts!

A few flaws in that logic...Black folk generally see no real reason to vote for President, two old and rich white guys...not much difference! Remember the year Jesse actually mounted a serious campaign? Turnout was quite different!
You nominate a black woman and I guarantee a significantly larger inner city turnout! Now if she goes against Hillary...it will be interesting to see the breakdown there among inner city and poor voters! I think it would be wonderful if those two squared off...the issue of a woman President would be moot...quite an interesting situation!

Originally Posted by somerfrost

A few flaws in that logic...Black folk generally see no real reason to vote for President, two old and rich white guys...not much difference! Remember the year Jesse actually mounted a serious campaign? Turnout was quite different!
You nominate a black woman and I guarantee a significantly larger inner city turnout! Now if she goes against Hillary...it will be interesting to see the breakdown there among inner city and poor voters! I think it would be wonderful if those two squared off...the issue of a woman President would be moot...quite an interesting situation!

They would probably turnout to vote against Condi. She's Aunt Toni.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

They would probably turnout to vote against Condi. She's Aunt Toni.

Actually, if you watch Condy and read about her, she's far from that! She won't forget that she is a black woman!

Originally Posted by somerfrost

A few flaws in that logic...Black folk generally see no real reason to vote for President, two old and rich white guys...not much difference! Remember the year Jesse actually mounted a serious campaign? Turnout was quite different!
You nominate a black woman and I guarantee a significantly larger inner city turnout! Now if she goes against Hillary...it will be interesting to see the breakdown there among inner city and poor voters! I think it would be wonderful if those two squared off...the issue of a woman President would be moot...quite an interesting situation!

I wasn't trying to hurt anyone's feelings
just history tells us it's has always been two old white men
in fact, all WASPs, no Jews, and only one Roman Catholic
there's a line in the film with Joan Allen ("The Contender"?)
we won't elect a women President, "beause you don't want
a woman with her finger on the button who isn't getting laid."

[ArlJim78]

Hillary will run for prez but will not get the nomination.

Conde will not run. At most she might be a wild card selection as a VP candidate to strengthen the ticket.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by BellamyRd.

I wasn't trying to hurt anyone's feelings
just history tells us it's has always been two old white men
in fact, all WASPs, no Jews, and only one Roman Catholic
there's a line in the film with Joan Allen ("The Contender"?)
we won't elect a women President, "beause you don't want
a woman with her finger on the button who isn't getting laid."

Well the last two men...one didn't know the difference between a cigar and a dil-do, and the other is a dil-do so....

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Hillary will run for prez but will not get the nomination.

Conde will not run. At most she might be a wild card selection as a VP candidate to strengthen the ticket.

Ok, you have inside info or is this a guess?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Ok, you have inside info or is this a guess?

No inside info, just a good track record on this type of thing.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No inside info, just a good track record on this type of thing.

I really don't see anyone beating Hillary for the nomination...she has a good record as Senator and really has put a lot of the negatives behind her. Condy is really tough to guage....a lot of support, a loyal member of the Bush team (not a positive in the general election but in the primary...), I think she will test the waters and a lot may depend on Rudy...I would think he'd be the only really serious challenge to her as he's quite liberal for a Republican, of course the religious right will have some say (unfortunately)!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I really don't see anyone beating Hillary for the nomination...she has a good record as Senator and really has put a lot of the negatives behind her. Condy is really tough to guage....a lot of support, a loyal member of the Bush team (not a positive in the general election but in the primary...), I think she will test the waters and a lot may depend on Rudy...I would think he'd be the only really serious challenge to her as he's quite liberal for a Republican, of course the religious right will have some say (unfortunately)!

I think Hillary will be something like Howard Dean, strong early but then fading rapidly under closer scrutiny. Bottom line in my view is that she cannot win the general election, once this is fully realized, party support and donations will jump ship and seek out someone else.

Conde I do not see as possessing the desire to be a politician, the fire in the belly so to speak. Rudy could likely be one of the 8-10 who throw their hat in the ring and go through the debating rounds. I do not see him as any threat for the nomination although he could wind up in the top 3-4.

Its early to get real serious about handicapping this thing, but if I had to guess on the Republican side I see it between McCain and Romney. After the election the picture should come into focus a little better.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think Hillary will be something like Howard Dean, strong early but then fading rapidly under closer scrutiny. Bottom line in my view is that she cannot win the general election, once this is fully realized, party support and donations will jump ship and seek out someone else.

Conde I do not see as a possessing the desire to be a politician, the fire in the belly so to speak. Rudy could likely be one of the 8-10 who throw their hat in the ring and go through the debating rounds. I do not see him as any threat for the nomination although he could wind up in the top 3-4.

Its early to get real serious about handicapping this thing, but if I had to guess on the Republican side I see it between McCain and Romney. After the election the picture should come into focus a little better.

Personally i think McCain's time has come and gone, but we will see! I disagree about Hillary, I think if nominated she wins easily! Perhaps with Obama as VP!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Personally i think McCain's time has come and gone, but we will see! I disagree about Hillary, I think if nominated she wins easily! Perhaps with Obama as VP!

These aren't my personal choices, its just how I see it playing out.
Yes McCains time has come and gone, but that won't stop him from being the favorite. They always go for the seemingly safe choice. Remember Bob Dole? You think his time hadn't passed. How many fresh faces get into this club?

Hillary wins easily?? I really don't see it. Her problem is she is not likable and has huge negatives. I've been hearing for years about how she is going to win, but it won't happen. Many look good and appear strong before the voting begins. Once it does it has a tendency to start to look a lot different.

Obama is being touted and rushed along too fast. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets serious VP consideration though.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

These aren't my personal choices, its just how I see it playing out.
Yes McCains time has come and gone, but that won't stop him from being the favorite. They always go for the seemingly safe choice. Remember Bob Dole? You think his time hadn't passed. How many fresh faces get into this club?

Hillary wins easily?? I really don't see it. Her problem is she is not likable and has huge negatives. I've been hearing for years about how she is going to win, but it won't happen. Many look good and appear strong before the voting begins. Once it does it has a tendency to start to look a lot different.

Obama is being touted and rushed along too fast. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets serious VP consideration though.

Obama is largely unknown outside his home state...I would ordinarily say that would be a minus but with recent history showing how hard it is for politicians to make the jump from the Senate to the White House because of their paper trail, perhaps this would be the right time for him as VP. Hillary has done well in Republican districts in NY so I'm not sure her negatives would be as large as you think. Clinton is still a powerful name in Democratic politics and Bill, now removed from the limelight, will be an asset. I don't think she makes the mistake of under-using her husband like Gore did. Maybe I'm overstating her appeal but I know I'd vote for her!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Obama is largely unknown outside his home state...I would ordinarily say that would be a minus but with recent history showing how hard it is for politicians to make the jump from the Senate to the White House because of their paper trail, perhaps this would be the right time for him as VP. Hillary has done well in Republican districts in NY so I'm not sure her negatives would be as large as you think. Clinton is still a powerful name in Democratic politics and Bill, now removed from the limelight, will be an asset. I don't think she makes the mistake of under-using her husband like Gore did. Maybe I'm overstating her appeal but I know I'd vote for her!

You may be right about Obama, the senate to White House route has not proved very successful (despite many having tried) so if you're going to try better to do it when you're relatively unknown. I think people tend to want to SEND someone to Washington to become president and fix whats wrong, rather than have someone slide on down from the capital. Senators are seen as part of the same Washington bureacracy, that's why governors have had much more success.

Honestly I think a Hillary campaign that utilizes Bill extensively might be the only thing that allows the Republicans to hold on to the office, imo.

[skippy3481]

I just don't think hillary would get enough votes to win. So many people would vote against her simply for being a woman. Not all democrats have progressive ideas. I know republicans wouldn't vote for her but the wiccans will have some say(unfortunatly)