8/5: Saratoga (Whitney Day)

[Kasept]

Thunderstorms certain to continue to roll through our area, but there's no way to know how wet things get or status of non-stakes turf races at this hour. For now, 6:30a, anticipating muddy to start the day on the main and good turf for the stakes races (3rd-7th-10th). 1st-4th-5th are candidates to come off the grass..

Weather Underground: https://www.wunderground.com/us/ny/saratoga-springs

UPDATE (10:30a): Heaviest rain appears to have missed Spa leaving FAST/FIRM..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


SCR'S/CHG'S



1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sandy'z Slew 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Frisky Magician 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Grand Sky 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #11 D' Eloquent 5-2 5th


2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Unraced/lightly raced 3yo's here and some real talent nestled within.. ("FTS" = first time starter)

Best Value: #3 Eight Town 5-1: Lynch; Full to CDN stakes win'r Essence Hit Man.. 7th
Next Best: #4 Zap Zap Zap 5-2: Ex-Hushion now Pletcher; Exits hot 6/24 BEL set.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1e Godolphin entry 7-2: Albertrani first as 3yo; KMc FTS o/o MSW Afleeting Lady.. 3rd/9th
Super Add: #2 Total Cooperation 6-1 8th


3rd: 14th Waya (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

Hard read with nice group going the 3 turns on the inner turf with not much pace involved on paper. Despite that, Guilty Twelve may be a good price key, looking like a new horse as a mare this year and seemingly able to run into mopderate fractions. Capable journeyman Chris DeCarlo takes these opportunities seriously..

Best Value: #8 Guilty Twelve 5-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Apple Betty 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Suffused 7-5 5th
Super Add: #5 Lottie 8-1 2nd


4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Survey 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Eclipsed Moon 5-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Neepawa 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Irish Territory 12-1 7th


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

An absolute war. No easy tosses..

Most Likely: #5 Delta Prince 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #6 Toughest 'Ombre 15-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Alphonsus 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Strike Midnight 12-1 8th


P5 Grid:

1: 2-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-3-11 (C)
2: 1-3-4 (A), 2-5-6 (B), 7-8 (C)
3: 1-8 (A), 4-5 (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 6-10 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
5: 5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

2: 1-3-4 (A), 2-5-6 (B), 7-8 (C)
3: 1-8 (A), 4-5 (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 4-6-10 (A), 3-5-7 (B), - (C)
5: 5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Some pedigrees worth noting here including Arrival, half to Bayern, Ceevee out of SW Bickersons, Thunder's Honor, a half to Ms. Locust Point and AE National Flag, a half to Bernina's Star & December Seven..

Most Likely: #9 Arrival 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Mad Munnys 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Ceevee 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Slot 5-1 3rd


7th: 5th Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Takeover Target 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Projected 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Ring Weekend 6-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Macagone 10-1 9th


8th: 92nd Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday, West Coast invaders look to be the power in this terrific edition of the exclusive G1 for 3yo filly sprinters. Stalking trip appears to be the go-to style and that seems to fit Faypien & American Gal's interests well. American Gal & Chalon have already made successful visits to NY, a notable plus. Turnback candidates include Faypien (Summertime Oaks win), Chanel's Legacy (Iowa Oaks 4th) and Tequilita (Kentucky Oaks 7th). Tough ticket-building exercise with virtually none an easy cross-out..

Most Likely: #8 Faypien 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Vertical Oak 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Your Love 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 American Gal 5-2 WON ($6.30)


9th: 90th Whitney (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

There are scenarios, especially those involving a wet track, where Gun Runner gets beaten. Tu Brutus, Keen Ice, Breaking Lucky and War Story have races in their PP's that put them in range of the favorite, but Gun Runner remains overwhelmingly likely..

Most Likely: #6 Gun Runner 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #5 Keen Ice 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Tu Brutus 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 War Story 6-1 4th


P4 Grid:

6: 9-10 (A), 2-4-8 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-8 (A), - (B), 5-7-12 (C)
8: 2-5-8-10 (A), 1-3-4-6 (B), 7-9 (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x8x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)


10th: 14th De La Rose-R, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #7 On Leave 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Elysea's World 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Bar of Gold 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Thundering Sky 15-1 WON ($28.60)


11th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f

Really nice way to end a big day. Mo Town giving indications in the a.m. that he's coming back to his good self. Use Brerry at the bottom of your tris and supers..

Most Likely: #6 Mo Town 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Neolithic 1-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #3 Realm 8-1 -
Exotics Use: #8 Schivarelli 6-1 -
Super Add: #2 Brerry 30-1 6th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-2 (A), 8 (B), 5-7-12 (C)
8: 2-5-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
11: 6-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x4x1x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), 5 (B), 1-2-4 (C)
10: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-9 (C)
11: 6-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (10/6/1/7,9) Paid $109.75 (A-A-C-A)


Good luck!
Steve

[tanner12oz]

Any opinions on WV derby today? I think the chalk is beatable.

[pb72vett]

Take a hard look at #1-4-7 -#9 is a good threat. For super

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Any opinions on WV derby today? I think the chalk is beatable.

I don't disagree that the faves are vulnerable, but where do you turn? I won't be surprised if Patch and/or Lookin At Lee run 1-2 or are both off the board. Asmussen knows this event well, so hard to be to dismissive of Lee and Patch has worked well and without interruption since the Belmont. I do think B Squared has a gilded look having faced West Coast at Los Al and that Colonelsdarktemper gets the plus company line v. Irap. I've been a Silver Dust fan from early on. Really fun group. G/L!

MNR 8th: 48th West Virginia Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f

Most Likely: #4 B Squared 9-2 8th
Best Value: #7 Colonelsdarktemper 8-1 WON ($16.00)
Next Best: #8 Lookin At Lee 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Impressive Edge 8-1 9th