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Old 08-10-2018, 08:58 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,285
Default 8/11: Saratoga (Fourstardave; $50k C/O); Arlington (Million Day)

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Prognostication 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #8 Gosilently 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Bootlegger 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Lemonist 3-1 2nd


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Chief Executive 5-2 5th (4th for wager)
Best Value: #6 Unionizer 10-1 WON ($19.40)
Next Best: #5 Preacher Marsee 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Southern Phantom 7-2 3rd/4th


3rd: ADK (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Lyrical Lady 6-5 6th
Next Best: #5 Virginia Eloise 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Grandma Gertie 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Sue's Fortune 4-1 WON ($9.00)


4th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Teachable Moment 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Opry 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Winning Factor 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #14 Starting Point 5-2 5th


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Fun group with plus mutuel look even if favored Unlockthepotential wins. Mesotherm (15-1) SCR'D is out of an unraced half sister of Wiseman's Ferry and has just enough sibling turf prowess to be an interesting use. Note that AE #11 Rapt (8-1) is dangerous if drawing in..

Most Likely: #13 Fifty 6th
Next Best: #7 Dr. Edgar SCR'D
Best Value: #9 Clutch Cargo 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Greek Alphabet WON ($7.10)


P5 Grid:

1: 6-8 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
2: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-8 (C)
3: 3-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), 2-14 (B), 5-7 (C)
5: 7/SCR-13 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

2: 4-6 (A), 5 (B), 1-8 (C)
3: 3-5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-2 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), 2-14 (B), 5-7 (C)
5: 7/SCR-13 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)


6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$50k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #7 Empire of War 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Road Home 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Network Effect 5-1 WON ($19.20)
Exotics Use: #8 A Thread of Blue 4-1 6th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (NYRA P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Majestic Won 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Munchkin Money 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 La Naturel 8-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Conquest Tizfire 9-2 11th


8th: Fourstardave (G1), 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Heart to Heart 2-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Yoshida 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Voodoo Song 9-2 WON ($15.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Made You Look 4-1 4th


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Patternrecognition 9-5 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #7 Spikes Shirl 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Breaking the Rules 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Phi Beta Express 5-1 2nd


10th: Lure, 4+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #3 Inspector Lynley 7-2 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #5 Mr. Cub 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Conquest Panthera 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Projected 5-2 2nd


11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #7 I Like Your Style SCR
Best Value: #3 Adorable Song SCR
Next Best: #4 Super Mama SCR
Exotics Use: #1 Dancingwithdaffodls 5-1 2nd


P6 Grid:

6: 5-7 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
7: 4-9 (A), 2-5 (B), 8 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 1 (A), 7 (B), 2-5 (C)
10: 3 (A), 5 (B), 1-7 (C)
11: 7 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x2x2x1 = 64 x $2 = $128
All A's: 2x2x2x1x1x1 = 8 x $2 = $16


P5 Grid:

7: 4-9 (A), 2-5 (B), 8 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 1-7 (A), - (B), 2-3-5 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 1-4-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x2x5 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

8: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-3-4 (C)
9: 1-5-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
10: 3-5 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 1-4-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/1/3/ALL) Paid $67.62 (All A's-$125.24; A/B's: $338.10)



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Bruce D. Memorial, 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Nottoway 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Nobrag Justfact 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 The Tabulator 2-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Strollin the Bayou 5-1 6th


9th: Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Analyze It 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Platinum Warrior 10-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Hunting Horn 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Sniper Kitten 12-1 10th


10th: Beverly D. (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Daddys Lil Darling 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Sistercharlie 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Dona Bruja 6-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Fourstar Crook 9-2 2nd


11th: Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Oscar Performance 3-1 9th
Best Value: #5 Century Dream 12-1 4th-DQ'd from 3rd
Next Best: #3 Almanaar 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Robert Bruce 9-2 WON ($7.20)


12th: Pucker Up (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Secret Message 12-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #13 Beyond Blame 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Cosmic Burst 4-1 7th
Super Add: #12 Smart Shot 15-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Madame Milan 20-1 6th


P5 Grid:

8: 5-7-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-9 (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), 2-6-10-13 (C)
10: 1-3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-11 (A), 3 (B), 10 (C)
12: 10-13 (A), 4-12 (B), 2-6-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x4x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

9: 9 (A), 2 (B), 6-10-13 (C)
10: 1-3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-5-11 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
12: 4-10-13 (A), 2-7-12 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 08-11-2018 at 08:32 PM.
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  #2  
Old 08-11-2018, 10:41 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,285
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SAR SCR/CHG'S

THX to Andy for the early SCR's..

Saturday #Saratoga Scratches....

1st - 7...
4th - 1a-11-12-13...
5th - 4-14...
6th - 3...
7th - 7...
10th - 4-8-10...
11th - 6-11-12-13-14-15-16
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 08-11-2018 at 11:35 AM.
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  #3  
Old 08-11-2018, 10:51 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
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Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
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Quick question. Is it possible that Catholic Boy has softened up Analyze It mentally? I know he is your Ken Singleton, but those were 2 brutal losses he suffered . Thanks for all the work you put in on both cards.
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  #4  
Old 08-11-2018, 11:30 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Quick question. Is it possible that Catholic Boy has softened up Analyze It mentally? I know he is your Ken Singleton, but those were 2 brutal losses he suffered . Thanks for all the work you put in on both cards.
It's not impossible, but he's lengths clear of the Secretariat group and the P5 sequence demands a single somewhere..

G/L today! Fun cards..
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #5  
Old 08-11-2018, 11:32 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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AP SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #6  
Old 08-11-2018, 12:12 PM
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casp0555 casp0555 is offline
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The Pucker Up is damn near an All Button race
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Old 08-11-2018, 12:14 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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LATE SURFACE CHANGE: Saratoga 4th & 5th are now OFF the turf..
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #8  
Old 08-11-2018, 07:09 PM
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atolunch atolunch is offline
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Another nice job today at the Spa.

Congrats and thanks as always!
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  #9  
Old 08-12-2018, 07:39 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atolunch View Post
Another nice job today at the Spa.

Congrats and thanks as always!
THX Larry.. One of those days where you had to be on your toes. Did all I could to stay on top of the changes, but couldn't quite get front half of the card situated to take advantage. Hope everyone did OK.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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