12/28: Santa Anita (Opening Day)

[Kasept]

SANTA ANITA ~ OPENING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


Here's to a successful season in Arcadia.. Hope everyone had a joyful Christmas and are poised for a great new year and decade!

With Flavien Prat sick and off his mounts, here are the revised riding assignments..

R2 ~ #2 Brill - Flavien Prat changed to Mike E. Smith
R4 ~ #1 Fivestar Lynch (IRE) - Flavien Prat changed to Javier Castellano
R7 ~ #5 Bellafina - Flavien Prat changed to Victor Espinoza
R8 ~ #1 Tiny Tina - Flavien Prat changed to Javier Castellano
R9 ~ #1 Much Better - Flavien Prat changed to Joseph Talamo
R10 ~ #3 Ocean Fury - Flavien Prat changed to Geovanni Franco


5th: San Antonio (G2), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Gift Box looking to get 'next year' going by repeating here, but Midcourt is emergent with upside yet. Draft Pick far from impossible..

Most Likely: #2 Gift Box 9-5 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #6 Midcourt 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Draft Pick 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Gray Magician 4-1 5th


6th: American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Mucho Unusual 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lady Prancelot 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Vibrance 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Giza Goddess 7-2 4th


7th: La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Bellafina strictly the one to beat, but want to take the price (7-2 by post time?) on well drawn and Rosario-assisted Mother Mother with a cautionary proviso.. 3yo-4yo's coming back from significant time away can make big forward moves and Mother Mother is working like she's prepared to do that. However, while he's won the La Brea 7 times, this particular gambit has not worked particularly well for Baffert the last 10 years with Emboldened (3rd last year after being away since May), Maybellene (7th in '15 after being away since March) and Gabby's Golden Gal (7th as fave in '09 after being away since July) as examples. As a sidebar, Baffert did win the '13 Malibu with Shakin It Up off a 9 month break..

Most Likely: #9 Mother Mother 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Bellafina 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Del Mar May 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Bell's the One 7-2 5th


8th: Bobby Frankel (G3), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mirth way the horse to beat, but presence of zippy Streak of Luck, Ms. Peintour AND Harmless means she'll have pace pressure if she seeks the point. She has not rated (going longer) in Smith's 2 rides on her. Excellent Sunset, now under care of Baltas, doffs hood and adds Rosario. Should enjoy perfect trip..

Most Likely: #7 Mirth 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #2 Excellent Sunset 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Curlin's Journey 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Don't Blame Judy 5-1 4th


9th: Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Omaha Beach the obvious focal point, but Complexity came back sharply in prep for this and re-blinkered Much Better will get the lead firing from the inside. Should be a chess match among Smith, Castellano and Prat on those 3 while Rosario looks to make the latest move on turnbacking Roadster..

Most Likely: #5 Omaha Beach 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Complexity 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Roadster 3-1 2nd


10th: Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Need to single somewhere in P5 and Mo Forza appears on his way to becoming West Coast's top turfer..

Most Likely: #5 Mo Forza 9-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #8 Proud Pedro 15-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Neptune's Storm 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Originaire 15-1 2nd


11th: Cal-MCLM/50, 2yo, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Include the Tax 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #11 Totally Tiger 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Champs Success 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Tiger the Man 6-1 5th


P5 Grid:

7: 2-5-9 (A), 1-6-7 (B), 3-4 (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 6-8 (C)
11: 2-11 (A), 3-5 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/7/5/5/2) Paid $403.65


P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5-6-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x3x1x6 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/5/5/2) Paid $18.60


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

Thanks and good luck Steve.

In Race 7, I also like Mother Mother but am a little more interested in the #7 Hard Not To Love, who looks like she should be the early pace setter and could possibly steal the race. I could see that 6-1 ML drifting up given that you’ve got Bellafina, Mother Mother, and a couple other horses that will draw interest over her. Interesting race. I think the best play is to bet against Bellafina...but we’ll see.

For the Malibu, it’s hard not to want to single Omaha Beach...but each horse in the race seems capable of running a big race. It looks like Much Better should take the early lead. That worries me a bit for Complexity who I think could get caught up in the early pace and an already expecting him to disappoint a bit after his big race last time out. That could set things up for Roadster, who I think is primed to run big today. Alternatively, if Much Better gets an easy lead...could he steal it? I think Omaha Beach is too good for that to happen but I’m also a little confused about his placement in a sprint then the BC mile and then the 7F Malibu.

Anyway, just some thoughts on the two big dirt races.

[Kasept]

With PRAT sick and off his mounts, here are the new riding assignments..

R2 ~ #2 Brill - Flavien Prat changed to Mike E. Smith
R4 ~ #1 Fivestar Lynch (IRE) - Flavien Prat changed to Javier Castellano
R7 ~ #5 Bellafina - Flavien Prat changed to Victor Espinoza
R8 ~ #1 Tiny Tina - Flavien Prat changed to Javier Castellano
R9 ~ #1 Much Better - Flavien Prat changed to Joseph Talamo
R10 ~ #3 Ocean Fury - Flavien Prat changed to Geovanni Franco

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

[casp0555]

Prat off his mounts at SA....)-: