5/21: Churchill (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Favored Frost Or Frippery 1st Cox off claim and way the horse to beat if close to OP effort 3 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #3 Frost Or Frippery 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #10 High Risk Strategy 15-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Overzealous 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Blue Steel 9-2 4th


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

A lot going on in this 5.5f turf sprint with 3 seasonal debuts including 5-2 fave Dalika (Rosario/Stall) who's never gone shorter than 7f. More has recency and should take to lawn being out of a More Than Ready mare who is a full sister to Tammy the Torpedo. Mentality very consistent and logical. McKeever returns Reenie D for '20 bow and Giant's Causeway filly a contender at a price (15-1) with natural 3 to 4 development..

Best Value: #9 More 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Mentality 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Rennie D 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dalika 5-2 WON ($5.80)


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Muddled field of 10 who arrive here after last starts at 9 different ovals: GP, CD, MVR, WRD, CNL, TP, AQU, BtP, OP-2. Classy Justice took a while to find herself, but was quite good at the end of her '19 campaign. String of High Point Training Center works and near bullet at CD indicates she ready at first asking. 15-1 and you get my man Mena..

Best Value: #2 Classy Justice 15-1 DNF-Lost rider
Next Best: #1 Addison 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Spun Eazy 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #7 Complete 5-1 7th


9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Deep, compelling 3rd level ALW with 8 stake winners signed on..

Best Value: #6 Ritzy A.P. 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Front Run the Fed 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Casa Creed 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Mr Dumas 9-2 WON ($8.80)


10th: MCLM/$50k, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Kind of a messy affair with droppers and a number of ugly running lines. On the flip side, some who look dirtied up have only run once or twice and can be forgiven.

Most Likely: #8 Flashing Red 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Soothing 5-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Garden Affair 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 She's a Deal 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #1 Sense You Left 6-1 9th


P5 Grid:

6: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-4-9 (A), 3-6 (B), 1 (C)
8: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 1-9-10 (B), 11 (C)
10: 4-8 (A), - (B), 1-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 4-9 (A), 2-3-6 (B), 1 (C)
8: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 1-9-10 (B), 11 (C)
10: 4-8 (A), - (B), 1-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S