8/20: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 8/20/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 2- 1st #6 THANKFUL 2ND #1 SIMPLY SWEET 3RD #4 HEAVENLY SIS

#6 THANKFUL should excel with extra ground and appears to be training well for Todd Pletcher. This barn is 7 of its last 24 with maidens in dirt routes at the Spa and this gal showed increased early foot in her dirt debut. #1 SIMPLY SWEET stretches out off a promising debut where she did some late running after losing contact early. Trainer Bill Mott is 21% with maidens stretching out on dirt in their 2nd career starts ($2.30 ROI). #4 HEAVENLY SIS rallied well from off a hot pace last time out and now gets more ground. She will need her very best to contend for the top spot, but can certainly snag a minor share.

Race 3- 1st #1 OUT OF TROUBLE 2ND #6 GOODBYE BROCKLEY 3RD #5 AWESOME ALANA

#1 OUT OF TROUBLE can be a pace threat from the inside as she exits a troubled trip effort where she was bounced around in the opening furlong. There’s no doubt she has seen better days, but so have all of them in this race that was presumably left over from Aqueduct in April. #6 GOODBYE BROCKLEY is another potential pace player as she actually outfinished the top pick when they met on July 30. This gal has not been effective on turf in a while, but she meets the weakest field she has in quite some time. #5 AWESOME ALANA is a pace player today first off a claim by Linda Rice. She has tried turf only once and hardly embarrassed herself, so there are things to like.

Race 4- 1st #8 THREEPOINTNINENINE 2ND #7 DISCIPLINARIAN 3RD #2 FREUDIAN ANALYST

#8 THREEPOINTNINENINE is a total cinch if he duplicates his last effort. He set a robust pace that day and battled to the finish, only weakening in the final 100 yards. There’s no other speed in here and he drew well on the outside. #7 DISCIPLINARIAN is a late threat 3rd off the bench for a barn that had a banner day here on Sunday. He retains Jose Ortiz and can get the jump on the deeper closers. #2 FREUDIAN ANALYST received an abysmal ride last time out as he fish-tailed through the stretch before running into traffic. This son of Freud has improved immeasurably in his last two and is clearly a turf sprinter.

Race 5- 1ST #1 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE 2ND #6 LEAVEUWITHASMILE 3RD #7 PERSIAN QUEEN

#1 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is a late runner who made the only meaningful off the pace move in her last start. She was claimed that day for 25k and drops a notch in class for new trainer Rudy Rodriguez. This barn is 35% with dirt sprinters first off of claims after being off 31-60 days from a 100+ horse sample ($2.74 ROI). #6 LEAVEUWITHASMILE won wire-to-wire last time out and was claimed by the high percentage Danny Gargan barn. He is opting to drop her in class, which is a negative sign, but her tactical speed makes her a deserving favorite in this spot. #7 PERSIAN QUEEN is back on short rest after winning a N3L event last week. She was claimed that day by Bob Klesaris and he is looking to strike while the iron is hot. Look for her late.

Race 6- 1st #4 WILD WILLIAM 2ND #5 BIG WONDER 3RD #8 JACK OF CLUBS

#4 WILD WILLIAM got into some traffic trouble in crunch time of his last start and now moves back into the claiming ranks. This is the right class level and he has the speed to be in a prime spot throughout. #5 BIG WONDER is the one to catch, but his busy Belmont meet may have finally caught up to him. He was dull last time out against a salty group of starter allowance foes and will now try to rebound on the class drop. #8 JACK OF CLUBS is new to the care of Mike Miceli, who is 2-5 ($9.00 ROI) with turf sprinters off trainer changes. The blinkers going on might sharpen him early and he has ability.

Race 7- 1st #2 STAN THE MAN 2ND #1 T LOVES A FIGHT 3RD #4 MY BOY TATE

#2 STAN THE MAN faced much tougher last time out in the True North and drops in class today while the blinkers are taken off. That might relax him in the early stages a tad, but his speed is a weapon. A repeat of his last makes him the one to beat. #1 T LOVES A FIGHT was a game second last time out in the John Morrissey after rating off a slow pace. That came during a hot run for his trainer, so it remains to be seen if he can duplicate it. One thing we’ve learned at this meet is to be careful betting against the Noda magic. #4 MY BOY TATE woke up last time on the cutback in distance and can be a threat stalking the pace today. He has a ton of impressive back form and will be a square price to boot.

Race 8- 1ST #7 LEAD GUITAR 2ND #5 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL 3RD #2 FETCHING

#7 LEAD GUITAR takes a huge drop in class for trainer Eddie Kenneally as she returns to NY. She began her career impressively and will appreciate the return to NY bred company. The biggest issue is the lack of pace in here given this filly’s speed seems to have evaporated. #5 SPEIGHSTOWN GAL is the one to catch as she has shown drastic improvement since cutting back in distance and moving back to NY bred company. Her effort on July 25 was good enough to win this if the top pick doesn’t bring her ‘A’ game. #2 FETCHING cuts back off a dull effort in the Mount Vernon, a race in which she had no real chance. Her struggling Hall of Fame trainer has poor numbers cutting back turfers to distances of 6 furlongs or less (5-46, $1.24 ROI).

Race 9- 1ST #3 WUSHU WARRIOR 2ND #6 FOOLISH GHOST 3RD #8 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN

#3 WUSHU WARRIOR was overmatched against N1X company last time and now goes 3rd off a layoff in a spot where he can lay back and make one run. The same patient pilot is aboard as well. #6 FOOLISH GHOST has the potential to be the speed of the speed depending on who remains in this field after scratches. He is very fast and faces drastically weaker today than he did last time out. #8 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN went sour after being claimed by Linda Rice and now returns off a layoff. He has races going back to late last year that would win this in a canter and that has to be respected.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 234-49-39-36 $311.00