9/4: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 9/4/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #5 SUMMER BREW 2ND #4 SAMBORELLA 3RD #1 MAKE MISCHIEF

#5 SUMMER BREW is a maiden facing winners, but she showed enough on debut to be given serious consideration in here. The winner that day, #2 ROSSA VELOCE, won during a red-hot streak for her trainer, who has now gone very cold. This daughter of Summer Front broke slowly then ranged up into a slow pace and figures to benefit from having that race behind her. #4 SAMBORELLA was purchased for 500k at the Saratoga sale a year ago and trained forwardly for her debut. She was bet down to 7/5 and had some trouble along the way. She should move forward with a race behind her as well. Of the winners, #1 MAKE MISCHIEF brings forth the best credentials given she is twice graded stake placed. Her lone try against NY breds was hardly jaw-dropping and she will be over bet here.

Race 2- 1st #5 SARATOGA FLASH 2ND #1 WORK OUT 3RD #2 DEVIOUS MO

#5 SARATOGA FLASH represents the same connections that will bid for Kentucky Derby glory with Tiz the Law on Saturday. This son of Laoban is training well for his unveiling and progeny of his sire already have 3 wins in his first crop. This colt appears to be training well and has a nice dam side pedigree. #1 WORK OUT was a good second on debut in a slow race, but should benefit from having that race behind him and now wears blinkers for the first time. The shades should help him overcome the poor inside post. #2 DEVIOUS MO is another son of Laoban and the dam here was a 2x winner. She is kin to a filly who won the Debutante at CD as a 2YO so there is precocity in the pedigree.

Race 3- 1ST #6 CITY MAN 2ND #4 CHESTERTOWN 3RD #2 MORE GRAYTFUL

#6 CITY MAN returns to the main track after finishing a good 2nd against open company N1X foes going long on turf. This son of Mucho Macho Man began his career here at Saratoga in style and is training very well for this engagement. Trainer Christophe Clement adds blinkers to his equipment and is 28% with non-first timers adding blinkers on dirt over the last 5 years ($2.44 ROI). #4 CHESTERTOWN is turning out to be worth a bit less than his gaudy auction price, but he is finally in a winnable spot. He is probably no better than a slightly above average NY bred and this is the right situation for him. #2 MORE GRAYTFUL is the one to catch from the inside and that is always notable going 9fs at the Spa. He exits a win when ridden aggressively going 5.5fs and a similar opening few furlongs seem to be in the offing.

Race 4- 1st #5 MARTINEZ 2ND #3 CHROME DIXIE 3RD #6 HALPERT

#5 MARTINEZ rallied into a modest pace on debut when 3rd behind a couple of solid performers. He gets more ground to work with today and figures to be set for a much improved effort at second asking. The distance should suit him quite well. #3 CHROME DIXIE is from the first crop of California Chrome and is out of a mare who lost 8 times on the turf. The 2nd dam, however, was a 3x turf winning NY bred and the workouts this colt has posted for trainer Christophe Clement appear to be solid. #6 HALPERT is by More Than Ready, a 12% turf sire and is out of a dam who won on turf. He has trained forwardly and looms a logical alternative to the top pair.

Race 5- 1ST #6 WAR CANOE 2ND #4 CLASSIC LADY 3RD #1 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY

With #2 FIFTY FIVE coming out of this race, #6 WAR CANOE becomes the best bet on the card. She was an unfortunate second last time out when ridden much too passively by Irad Ortiz, Jr. She let #4 CLASSIC LADY get a significant jump on her, which was detrimental in the end. With a heady ride in here she can bridge that narrow gap. The aforementioned Classic Lady is in top form but won during a hot streak for a barn that has understandably cooled down since. #1 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY is a potential pace player from the inside after wiring lesser last time out. Her pilot has feasted on the passivity of his colleagues in this riding colony.

Race 6- 1st #4 MOONSHINE MAKER 2ND #3 ADVANCED STRATEGY 3RD #5 PAPA LUKE

#4 MOONSHINE MAKER is a son of Discreet Cat, whose progeny win on debut at a 9% clip and this colt is kin to 7x winner Day by Day. The dam here won 9 times and banked over 200k, so there’s a lot to like in a race where the experienced horses hardly look unbeatable. #3 ADVANCED STRATEGY ran a race in his debut that would likely win this thing if he can duplicate it. He has failed twice as the fave on turf of late, but now gets blinkers and an important surface switch. #5 PAPA LUKE has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in two straight and now gets a rider change back to Luis Saez and the addition of blinkers. That should keep his mind on business late, as he seems to have trouble sealing the deal.

Race 7- 1st #3 MARKET ALERT 2ND #4 LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE 3RD #7 HOLD THE SALSA

#3 MARKET ALERT was too aggressively ridden last time out when facing much tougher in the Saratoga Special. This is a huge class drop and he will wear blinkers that should relax him a bit early. Trainer Jimmy Ryerson is 20% with dirt sprinters adding blinkers over the last five years ($3.17 ROI). #4 LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE is a threat to wire this bunch given the speed he’s shown in his first two starts. He looked to be in distress at the top of the lane last time before finishing powerfully to score at 6/5. If he can avoid a pace battle today he may forget to quit. #7 HOLD THE SALSA was on the wrong part of the racetrack last time out when he proved a non-factor in the Saratoga Special. He can be a late threat today with some pace help at what should be a huge price.

Race 8- 1ST #5 MR JAGGERS 2ND #3 SHAMROCKET 3RD #6 FOREVER POE

#8 SUMMER AT THE SPA had little go her way last time, from a wide run to the first turn to the complete lack of pace in front of her. She should be in a more advantageous position today given his appears like it’ll be an honestly run race. Her runner-up finish two back was undoubtedly strong enough to win this thing. #6 ASTORIA KITTEN is the one to beat given the narrow miss last time out on opening day. She set a glacial pace in that affair before getting tagged on the line by the since twice beaten Pecatonica. If this gal can get clear she can take them a long way, but you must demand value. #2 BELLA ROSE is the potential inside speed given her proximity to a hot pace when last seen at Belmont. She ended up making an early and wide move into a pace that ultimately collapsed that day and actually has upside as a live longshot.

Race 9- 1ST #9 LUNA’S IN CHARGE 2ND #13 UNCLE GEORGE 3RD #12 INSIDE INFO

#9 LUNA’S IN CHARGE has run some of his best races the last couple of years at Saratoga and enters off a narrow miss in a race taken off the turf. He was a good 2nd two back to the stakes caliber Maxwell Esquire and should be a serious late threat again in this spot. #13 UNCLE GEORGE was hardly persevered with after a poor start in a race run over a boggy course last time out. He should rebound in here and gets a significant rider upgrade to Joel Rosario. #12 INSIDE INFO is interesting at a price given he has an aggressive pilot aboard and should be forwardly placed returning on short rest. He has tried turf only once and it came on debut, so there’s no reason to judge that race. Look for him from the opening bell.

Race 10- 1st #3 SHARP STARR 2ND #5 CRITICAL VALUE 3RD #2 ICE PRINCESS

#3 SHARP STARR was a good 2nd against older NY breds as the 8/5 favorite last time out. This daughter of Munnings ran in spots but ultimately finished with a full head of steam and showed this distance is no issue for her. There’s enough pace in here to set up her late bid. The wild card for #5 CRITICAL VALUE is the distance. She went 9fs late in her 2YO season and should have ended up enjoying the trip eventual winner Lake Avenue got. Instead, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. yanked this filly back and she sat second before tiring. She showed she’s improved in the Bouwerie win and is expected to have a major say in the outcome here. #2 ICE PRINCESS returns off a layoff for a barn that is 0 for its last 9 in dirt routes run over the last 100 days. She has run races that would make her a serious win candidate today, but her trainer is tough to trust at the moment.

Race 11- 1st #5 RINALDI 2ND #1 DOT MATRIX 3RD #2 GUCCI FACTOR

The centerpiece of this NY bred showcase is the West Point, where #5 RINALDI appears to be the ‘now’ horse. There’s no doubt he seems too slow on paper, and that his last looks dressed up. With that said, he figures to be on the lead today and trainer H. James Bond is enjoying a meet that can best be described as “otherworldly.” #1 DOT MATRIX is back in the friendly confines of NY bred company. He traded decisions with #4 GUCCI FACTOR, the second of which came when the pace was hot and this son of Freud weakened late. He has enough pace to protect his tactical edge over ‘Gucci. That son of Gio Ponti is a late runner who’ll need some pace help, but it appears as if his workouts have been steady. Should he be able to lay any closer early his chances will improve by a mile.

Race 12- 1st #4 SMITE 2ND #8 FREUDIAN ANALYST 3RD #1 BOOM BOOM KABOOM

The class relief #4 SMITE gets is too significant to overlook. He hails from a barn that is 28% with turf sprinting maidens dropping in for tags ($2.42 ROI) and the speed he possesses is a major weapon going this trip. #8 FREUDIAN ANALYST appeared to be on his way to a second place finish last time out before his jockey nearly fell out of the saddle. The near fall was unprovoked, and this son of Freud stayed on well to narrowly miss the show dough. Look for him to be making up ground late in here. #1 BOOM BOOM KABOOM narrowly outfinished ‘Freudian last time out and seems to fit in the maiden claiming ranks. He gets a key rider switch and has a cozy inside post from which he can save ground throughout.