#1
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Weekend Stakes Beyers: Medina Spirit 102; Malathaat 95
CD Kentucky Derby (G1): Medina Spirit 102 (Protonico) B. Baffert/J. Velazquez
CD Turf Classic S (G1): DH-Domestic Spending 100 (Kingman-GB) C. Brown/F. Prat CD Turf Classic S (G1): DH-Colonel Liam 100 (Liam's Map) T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz CD Churchill Downs S. (G1): Flagstaff 95 (Speightstown) J. Sadler/L. Saez CD Derby City Distaff S. (G1): Gamine 99 (Into Mischief) B. Baffert/J. Velazquez CD Pat Day Mile S. (G2): Jackie's Warrior 91 (Maclean's Music) S. Asmussen/J. Rosario CD American Turf S. (G2): Du Jour 89 (Temple City) B. Baffert/F. Prat CD Distaff Turf Mile S (G2): Blowout-GB 95 (Dansili-GB) C. Brown/F. Prat CD Kentucky Oaks (G1): Malathaat 95 Curlin T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez CD La Troienne S. (G1): Shedaresthedevil 92 Daredevil B. Cox/F. Geroux CD Alysheba S. (G2): Maxfield 105 Street Sense B. Walsh/J. Ortiz CD Eight Belles S. (G2): Obligatory 93 Curlin W. Mott/J. Ortiz CD Edgewood S. (G2): Gift List-GB 88 Bated Breath (GB) B. Lynch/J. Castellano CD Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. (G2): Fast Boat 98 City Zip J. Sharp/I. Ortiz CD Unbridled Sidney S: Into Mystic 100 Into Mischief B. Walsh/F. Geroux CD Opening Verse S: Set Piece-GB 97 Dansili (GB) B. Cox/F. Geroux CD Kentucky Juvenile S: Averly Jane 63 Midshipman W. Ward/T. Gaffalione CD Isaac Murphy Marathon S: Lone Rock 94 Majestic Warrior R. Diodoro/R. Vazquez CD OC/N1X (9f): Masqueparade 97 (Upstart) A. Stall/M. Mena CD OC/N1X (6.5f): Supremacy 88 (Constitution) B. Cox/F. Geroux CD OC/N2X (1m-T): First Premio 93 (Pure Prize) M. Casse/U. Rispoli CD ALW/N1X (1m): Ram 81 (American Pharoah) D. Lukas/I. Ortiz CD 3+ MSW (1m): Koolhaus 86 (Nyquist) B. Cox/F. Geroux CD 3+ MSW (6f): Mr Sippi 86 (Runhappy) J. Sharp/I. Ortiz CD 3+ MSW-F (1m-T): Alydiva 76 (Quality Road) M. Casse/T. Gaffalione BEL Westchester S (G3): Dr Post 103 (Quality Road) T. Pletcher/M. Franco BEL Sheepshead Bay S (G2): Magic Attitude-GB 97 (Galileo-IRE) A. Delacour/T. McCarthy BEL Fort Marcy S (G2): Tribhuvan-FR 105 (Toronado-IRE) C. Brown/E. Cancel BEL Ruffian S (G2): Vault 88 (Jump Start) B. Cox/J. Rosario BEL License Fee S: She's My Type-FR 94 (Dunkerque-FR) C. Clement/H. Diaz BEL Flat Out S: Musical Heart 100 (Maclean's Music) R. Atras/T. McCarthy SA Senorita S (G3): Madone 78 (Vancouver-AUS) S. Callaghan/J. Hernandez SA Angels Flight S: Astute 88 (Speightstown) R. Mandella/J. Hernandez MID Temple Gwathmey Hurdle H (G2): Snap Decision N/A (Hard Spun) J. Fisher/G. Watters OP Oaklawn S: Fulsome 87 (Into Mischief) B. Cox/M. Garcia OP AR Breeders' Ch. S: Tempt Fate 84 (Hamazing Destiny) C. Deville/C. Torres GP Big Drama S: Well Defined 96 (With Distinction) K. O'Connell/E. Jaramillo GP Honey Ryder S: Con Lima 88 (Commissioner) T. Pletcher/P. Lopez GP Golden Beach H: Choose Joy (Munnings) S. Dwoskin/M. Vasquez CT Confucius Say S: V. I. P. Ticket - (Windsor Castle) J. O'Dwyer/G. Almodovar CT Its Binn Too Long S: Door Buster - (Speightster) O. Figgins/D. Araujo TDN Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial S: Dancin' Rosie - (Vaquero) J. Radosevich/J. Bracho PRX Page McKenney H: Wait for It 99 (Uptowncharlybrown) E. Coletti/A. Nunez PRX Unique Bella S: Chub Wagon 93 (Hey Chub) G. Preciado/J. Torres
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-03-2021 at 05:00 AM. |
#2
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Jackie's Warrior ran the best 91 I have ever watched
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#3
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Yeah, it was the best 14-second final furlong I ever watched.
Bet Highly Motivated with both fists in the Woody Stephens. |
#4
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Masqueparade might have won the Derby if he was in it
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#5
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No he wouldn’t have.
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#6
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What about Koolhaus in the Pat Day Mile or were you thinking more Supremacy?
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#7
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And nobody closed so there is that
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#8
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Have a heart, Freddy...and read the PPs.
It was a field loaded with a bunch of unproven speed-types...and a multiple Grade 1 winner. There were only 2 closers in the race to begin with. And what closers they were. Sittin On Go hadn't passed a single horse in the stretch since September of last year and Defunded was unfortunately ridden by Irad Ortiz who must have taken advice in the jock's room from the horse's last rider, Mike Smith. |
#9
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#10
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If Chad Brown said the race was tough my guess is he was more worried about the amount of speed lining up and not any particular horse or horses. Who was supposed to "step up" exactly? Defunded? He was supposed to get a perfect setup. In that sense, he wouldn't have needed to improve to capitalize; but the point is moot because he was given a moronic ride. Beyond that, he's a horse with a modest pedigree, that had to have an 8-month layoff after his debut, was gelded in the interim (something you rarely see in Baffert's barn), and then was stupidly tossed into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden sprint win presumably because Life is Good got hurt and Baffert's ego was bruised (see his exploits last year ruining the early careers of Uncle Chuck and Cezanne). Maybe he'll have enough left to win the Los Alamitos Derby before running off the board in the Haskell. Prevalence? Why was he in that race? He just got brow beat in the Wood Memorial when foolishly rushed into the Derby picture after a facile (and slow) maiden sprint win. Sad part is, he's by Medgalia d'Oro, who doesn't typically produce speedy one-turn horses, so instead of allowing him to progress steadily to two-turn races his trainer has fried him and pretty much slammed the door shut on his 3yo year. He can't handle a hot pace, he can't sit back and make one run, and he probably has no bottom (or heart) to go a route any time soon. Time to back off and start from scratch. Maybe he can be next year's Maxfield. I doubt it. Future looks bright as a Dubai Carnival race filler. Starrininmydreams and Sittin On Go? Typical fodder from the Stewart and Romans barns...the #1 source for also-rans for all Stakes Coordinators across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them tries to run back in the Preakness... Dreamer's Disease? Well, with an apt name like that I guess you can't blame the connections (I'm still going to). Why the hell would you bring a horse with that kind of early speed back in a race like this off that disastrous NY-bred baby race right on the heels of his gut-busting effort in the BC? He and Excellent Timing could have had a nice rivalry beginning with the Gold Fever and segueing into the NY-bred Mike Lee. Now they'll have to use the latter just to get back on the right track. Whiskey Double? He was outsprinted by O Besos earlier in the year. Next.. Dream Shake? Not sure how much more punishment this horse can take. Somehow defeating Bezos and Fenway in a maiden sprint made this horse a Derby prospect. Running mediocre thirds in weak CA fields somehow still punched his ticket to Louisville instead of a more logical step, like the 7-furlong sure-to-be-5-horse field Laz Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita or I don't know...a first condition allowance race? To be fair, the latter don't fill in CA unless it's for 3yos and up, so one way or the other he was probably going to need to ship out-of-state. His runner-up effort here is probably only going to emboldened his connections further, and we'll probably see him next in the Woody Stephens. I guess on the bright side, we didn't have to watch him run in the Kentucky Derby (unless you were in Vegas planning to bet a reverse last place finish exacta box with Soup and Sandwich)... Noble Reflection? This has to be the worst training job of the bunch. The horse has an 8-month layoff following a 3rd place finish in a pretty productive maiden 2yo race, comes back with a sharp score in the comeback sprinting in March and guess what? You guessed it...Derby Prospect! Forget a first condition allowance sprint. Forget a first condition allowance route. Why not do both at the same time? We'll route him, but we'll pretend like we're in a sprint race. This is the only deranged logic can explain what the F they were doing with him in the Lexington setting a :45 opening half. And for the life of me, I cannot begin to imagine how this race was still on their radar after the absolute (and predictable) meltdown the horse suffered. The most unforgivable part of this whole affair is that they nearly paved the way for King Fury to get into the Kentucky Derby... |
#11
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#12
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And you are also aware that every single 2021 route start (and nearly every sprint start, too, actually) from every single horse in the race save for Prevalence's tailored team workout second time out resulted in a running line in which ground (i.e., multiple lengths) was lost in the stretch? (This was all on paper beforehand, by the way...) I thought I covered most of the field, but which specific horse did you think was: (1) not in declining form or (2) had shown the ability to handle further than 7f or (3) had shown the ability to survive a fast pace or (4) shown the ability to close in a route? Was I supposed to analyze the scratched horse? |
#13
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I don’t know why it’s so hard to understand that Beyer figs are final time Figs, Freddy, and that horses that set excruciating paces will always run final time figures lower than the actual performance they gave. There was zero chance Jackie’s Warrior was going to get a big final time fig given that pace. He and the runner up ran huge. The Beyer fig was never going to tell that story. I honestly cannot understand why you keep harping on this.
It’s the opposite of raising figs because super slow fractions make fast final times impossible, something you see far more frequently in turf races.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#14
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#15
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To your point, I don't think it would have done anything more for his "value" that any other graded stakes would have. The Derby Trial is not an important race, never has been, and isn't now no matter how much they dress it up. A cursory review of the winners tells you that. Between 1990 and 1995 it produced some nice horses (although Housebuster was already well established), but that was when it was not pigeon-holed as a 3yo sprint division race and not buried on the undercard of the Kentucky Derby. Quote:
Also, the iron was not hot. He had done nothing beyond a sharp maiden score and his last 2 were completely underwhelming even though some people seem to think he had a strong chance in each of those races. Quote:
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By the way, winning a graded stakes is better than placing in a graded stakes. And it's less taxing when you run out of your own stall against a small field. That's important when a horse's career has been delayed until 3 years of age and is lightly raced. Quote:
By the way, in a sensible world, Flightline would be in the Barrera, too, as well as a couple of prospects from Baffert's barn (Freedom Fighter, Triple Tap, Following Sea, Laurel River) and The Chosen Vron. I doubt it will come up weaker than his maiden race, which thus far has only produced Law Professor (another SA Derby also-ran) and Bezos (who I'm guessing we won't be seeing again for some time). Quote:
And we didn't even discuss how well bred he is for the turf... |
#16
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Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed |
#17
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Better is a tricky word. Different and worth comparing to try to determine why they sometimes disagree
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#18
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#19
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Hey Dunbar...I’ve been meaning to ask. How’d your future wagering go this year?
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#20
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I lost. I guess to you that means I made a bad bet, right?
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
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