L U C K

[RUFFIAN]

“LUCK”
In Competition when a Person is the one competing
Like Swimming 🏊*♀️ … Track 🏃*♂️ … Tennis 🎾 … Golf ⛳️ etc

It is NOT LUCK 🍀 how they finish
It is how Good they were that day

But In Horse 🐎 Racing…
Your Choice of Who To Bet on
Involves A LOTTA LUCK! 🍀 😱

The “Best Horse” Doesn’t Always Finish #1

A Truly Great Horse 🐎 May ……….

Stall In the Gate yielding a lot of distance
May Jump A Shadow
May Spook At Something On The Track

May Be In Tight Traffic Unable to get through
May Be Bumped By Another

His / Her Jockey may Drop Whip or lose reins
Distance Too Long / Or Too Short
May Not Feel Well

SO…
If The Horse 🐎 You Bet On Actually Wins 🏆
Be Aware Of Just How LUCKY You Are 🍀

[JolyB]

There are lots of reasons why the best horse doesn't always win -- your list includes many of them and every horseplayer could add quite a few more to that. But I hope that you are not suggesting that the winner of a horserace is purely a matter of who is the luckiest. If you are, I strongly disagree.

Year in and year out the wagering favorites tend to win at about a 33% rate. Usually they are made the favorite because the bettors think they are the best horse in the race. If you assume that a race is just a random event won by the luckiest entrant, then [assuming that the average race has about 8 entrants] the favorites or any other entrant should win at about a 12.5% rate. The difference between these numbers tells me that something else is going on. Feel free to quibble about my numbers - the average size might be somewhat larger or smaller but I hope you see my point.

Handicappers spend a large amount of time examining the merits of the runners to figure out who are the best horses. The successful ones then look at the odds to answer the tougher question of whether the price they will get if this horse wins is large enough to also cover the possibility that their pick could lose if it encounters any of the bad luck elements you listed.

p.s. - any golfer will tell you that there have been days when they hit the ball very well but scored poorly because of unlucky bounces or poor lies,and days when they hit poor shorts that somehow turned out all right due to good fortune. How good they were that day is important but only part of the overall equation.

[RUFFIAN]

JOLY

Apparently you misunderstood the reason for my comments 😠
It was merely giving some reasons
why sometimes the “Best Horse” doesn’t always win

It was also intended to make people whose horse loses
Maybe feel better about why it may have happened 😊