Finally Blemont Week . . . whadaya think?

[DonGuido]

Can Rich Strike make his conenections even richer, will he be favored and who else are the potential hot horses to watch for.

Fun disucssion and history is also good. I'll get the threads up after the draw and hen the PP's are up.

And can our very hot capping Colordo kitten manage the Points Contest Trifecta. No pressure Ruffian, polish up that crystl ball and just do it!!!

_________________________
Of course it's Belmont . . . what a maroon, says Bugs!!!

[JolyB]

Entries were drawn this morning and the linemaker made Rich Strike the third choice at 7-2, behind We the People at 2-1 and Mo Donegal at 5-2.

If those are the post time odds, I don't think that Rich is a good bet. Everything seemed to go his way in the Derby and his win was impressive. However, it would be asking a lot for the Belmont to fit his running style so perfectly as well. The Belmont pace is usually much slower as jockeys are very conscious of the distance and try to save a lot for the finish. Much of Rich's Derby win was attributable to the very fast pace that cooked much of his competition.

Another thing that worries me about Rich's prospects - Sonny Leon gave him a superb ride in the Derby and found every hole at just the right time. I don't think that he is familiar with Belmont, and jockeys who aren't familiar with the big sandy can get lost on those wide, sweeping turns. If a jockey starts his run at the beginning of the final turn at Belmont, he could be completely out of gas by the 1/16th pole due to the greater distance. I would have expected Leon to be riding some races at Belmont in the days preceding this Saturday.

Finally, I was a little surprised that the ML odds on Nest weren't a bit lower. I had expected something more like 6-1 for a number of reasons, including that Todd has shown with Rags to Riches that he is very skilled at judging whether he has a filly capable of getting 1 1/2 miles and then training her to do just that.

[cal828]

I like Joly's analysis. I think he makes some good points; however logic has failed me for the last few weeks so I'm going with the gray or whichever one's jockey has the prettiest silks.

[RUFFIAN]

{ DON CHIRPS ~
“ can our very hot capping Colordo Kitten
manage the Points Contest Trifecta.

No pressure Ruffian, polish up that crystl ball and just do it!!!”
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

My Crystal Ball Is Lookin A Lil Bit Cloudy ⛅️
Have Rarely Done Well In New York
It’s Just Not A Rocky Mountain High

I May Have To Make A Call To Ms Lady Luck
~~~~Offer Some Better Quality Catnip

Sometimes Bribery May Actually Work

[JolyB]

My overall level of enthusiasm dropped a bit when I looked at the rest of the Belmont card. The run of Grade 1 races with storied reputations is still there, but where are the horses? I'm referring to the number of graded stakes with very small fields - the Acorn, the Just A Game, the Ogden Phipps and the Met Mile all have only 5 entrants; the Woody Stephens only 6 and the Brooklyn only 7. Fortunately the Jaipur and the Manhattan both have full fields and appear to be good betting races.

It may be tough to find much betting value in some of those races with small fields, no matter how good the horses who are running might be. Don't get me wrong. I love to watch talented horses running, but some of those Grade 1 races will be great races to watch but not so good for betting.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

Entries were drawn this morning and the linemaker made Rich Strike the third choice at 7-2, behind We the People at 2-1 and Mo Donegal at 5-2.

If those are the post time odds, I don't think that Rich is a good bet. Everything seemed to go his way in the Derby and his win was impressive. However, it would be asking a lot for the Belmont to fit his running style so perfectly as well. The Belmont pace is usually much slower as jockeys are very conscious of the distance and try to save a lot for the finish. Much of Rich's Derby win was attributable to the very fast pace that cooked much of his competition.

Another thing that worries me about Rich's prospects - Sonny Leon gave him a superb ride in the Derby and found every hole at just the right time. I don't think that he is familiar with Belmont, and jockeys who aren't familiar with the big sandy can get lost on those wide, sweeping turns. If a jockey starts his run at the beginning of the final turn at Belmont, he could be completely out of gas by the 1/16th pole due to the greater distance. I would have expected Leon to be riding some races at Belmont in the days preceding this Saturday.

Finally, I was a little surprised that the ML odds on Nest weren't a bit lower. I had expected something more like 6-1 for a number of reasons, including that Todd has shown with Rags to Riches that he is very skilled at judging whether he has a filly capable of getting 1 1/2 miles and then training her to do just that.

The so called TV racing "experts" couldn't have laid this out any better!!! Your bonus check is in the mail.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

My overall level of enthusiasm dropped a bit when I looked at the rest of the Belmont card. The run of Grade 1 races with storied reputations is still there, but where are the horses? I'm referring to the number of graded stakes with very small fields - the Acorn, the Just A Game, the Ogden Phipps and the Met Mile all have only 5 entrants; the Woody Stephens only 6 and the Brooklyn only 7. Fortunately the Jaipur and the Manhattan both have full fields and appear to be good betting races.

It may be tough to find much betting value in some of those races with small fields, no matter how good the horses who are running might be. Don't get me wrong. I love to watch talented horses running, but some of those Grade 1 races will be great races to watch but not so good for betting.

Yes, pretty sorry!

[JolyB]

Having a stretch of 9 Grade 1 (well, the Brooklyn is a grade 2, but it was once a grade 1, so please allow me a bit of poetic license) races in a row is a type of horseplayer heaven, and a number of the stars that will be running tomorrow should make for a fun day. Right now, the weather looks ideal.

The only fly in this ointment is that with so many very small fields, I suspect that many of us will be making virtually the same picks in a majority of the races in the points contest. There are such a limited number of alternatives, particularly since the points contest offers no premium for picking a horse with value. Of course Echo Zulu, Jack Christopher and Flightline appear in almost everyone's top slot. I wouldn't be surprised if the points winner is the player who does that best job of picking his or her way through the puzzles offered by the Jaipur and the Manhattan, two races that so far remain a mystery to me.

Notwithstanding all of that, I hope that all of you have an enjoyable and profitable day.