8/27: Saratoga (153rd Travers Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Cox unveils the Midnight Bisou half Verifying (Justify) here, but Asmussen has Dr. Dorr half King's Glory (Speightstown) and Brown offers Standard of Proof (Gun Runner) who has license to be OK..

Most Likely: #3 Verifying 5-2 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #6 King's Glory 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Standard of Proof 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Didinger 6-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 1m-OFF(P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Funtastic Again 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #5 Triple Start 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Read On 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Fire Baron SCR


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Colormepazzi 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 On the Hill 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 G Munning 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Majority Partner 4-1 WON ($18.20)
Also Include: #2 Bold Journey 9-2 7th


4th: 34th Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Technical Analysis 1-1 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #3 Our Flash Drive 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 High Opinion 8-1 3rd


5th: 43rd Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Jackie's Warrior 1-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Baby Yoda 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Cody's Wish 7-2 WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #Pipeline 8-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2-3-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x1x1 = 36 x $1.50 = $48 ($18 for .50)
Backup: $18 (1 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-5-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2-3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x1 = 20 x $2 = $40 ($10 for .50)
Backup: $10 (1 in 5th)


6th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Baltasar 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Jet Speed 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Swift Tap 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Luni Sima 6-1 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Comedy Town 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Noble Emotion 9-2 WON ($13.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Discreet Tune 4-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Charmed 8-1 7th


P4 Grid:

4: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-4-5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x1x5x4 = 20 x $2 = $40
Backup: 40 x .50 = $20


8th: 38th H. Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Jack Christopher returns to middle distance sprinting and is obvious horse to beat, but he's not the only turn back candidate here with Howling Time (10-1), Actuator (12-1) & Happy Jack (15-1) doing the same. Conagher the horse to catch and he'll take some catching. Actuator's CD maiden-breaker came at this trip and I'll trust Michael W. McCarthy's judgement placing him here off the IN Derby win. Runninsonofagun is eligible for a minor award at a huge price..

Most Likely: #6 Jack Christopher 6-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #4 Actuator 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Conagher 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Runninsonofagun 30-1 3rd


9th: 73rd Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

If the Molly Pitcher effort is her new standard and given that Prat can keep close tabs on Letruska from the outset, Search Results will win this. And she's 4th choice..

Best Value: #2 Search Results 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Clairiere 6-5 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Letruska 3-1 3rd


10th: 48th Sword Dancer (G1), 4+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Broome 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Rockemperor 8-1 9th
Best Value: #7 Tribhuvan 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Mira Mission 12-1 2nd


11th: 153rd Travers Stakes (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)

Put a line through Cyberknife's too-close-to-Derby-pace fiasco and note his Beyer progress since the start of his 3yo year: 72-87-92-94-102. String of works since Haskell indicate he's still on the upswing. Horse to beat and not the favorite. The price I'm using is Ain't Life Grand, the Iowa bred. As discussed this week, The Von Hemels are as accomplished a family of horsemen as there is in the game and they don't take coming to an assignment like this lightly. People appear ready to take 9-2 on Artorious when this Not This Time colt is faster, more experienced and going to be 20-1+. Worked like his tail was on fire over the track last Saturday to boot. Could do worse in this interesting running than taking the 2 Gun Runners and 2 Not This Times as suggested below..

Most Likely: #1 CYBERKNIFE 7-2 2nd ~ Beat Byk Selection
Next Best: #6 Epicenter 7-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #3 Ain't Life Grand 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Early Voting 8-1 8th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-2-3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-6 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x1x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
Backup: $22.50 (3-7 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-6 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x2 = $54 ($27 for .50)
Backup: $13.50 (3-7 in 11th)


12th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Empire Sky 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Heymackit'sjack 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Fuoco 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Steerage 6-1 7th


13th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner

Most Likely: #2 Invincible Gal 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Parnac 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 A Little Faith 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Salimah 7-2 7th


P5 Grid:

9: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
10: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-6 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
12: 4 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
13: 1-2 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $6 (5 in 9th) + $18 (3-7 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

10: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-6 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
12: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 1-2 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $12 (3-7 in 11th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S