10/29: BEL@AQU ($50k P6 C/O); KEE/SA Spot Plays

[Kasept]

BELMONT@AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: Awad, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Sendero 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Freedom Trail 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Conman 10-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Dandy Handyman 4-1 2nd


5th: Kelso (G2), 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$50k P6 C/O starts here..

VERY difficult carryover skein here. Not sure it can be hit on a modest budget; Baby Yoda in a distinct alternating pattern, but certainly the one to beat..

Best Value: #3 Morello 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Baby Yoda 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Empty Tomb 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Shackqueenking 5-1 3rd


6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Really well-matched group, but Mrs. Green saves ground, is improving and should be first to pounce on leader Stop War..

Most Likely: #1 Mrs. Green 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Mischievous Dream 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gogo Shoes 9-2 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Stop War 7-2 5th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Very little obvious pace involved here, which could open the door for sprint stretch out candidate Icy Star Down (12-1), second time router Tuscan Queen (15-1), or perhaps Malibu Curl (10-1) who gets the aggressive big boy. Maybe it's as simple as the 2 Chad Browns, but Customer List appears to need a forward move to contend. Very tricky group in increasingly demanding sequence..

Best Value: #8 Tuscan Queen 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Customer List 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Icy Stare Down 12-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Parnac 9-2 WON ($8.30)


P4 Grid:

4: 2-4 (A), 1-3 (B), 6-7 (C)
5: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


8th: Pumpkin Pie, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

As in the Bold Ruler that follows, pacesetter Oxana has real shot to wire. Effort 2 back from Boston Post Road would be imposing here..

Best Value: #6 Oxana 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Boston Post Road 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Dr B 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Glass Ceiling 5-2 4th


9th: Bold Ruler (G3), 3+, 6f (DD)

Nice group. Meraas tired at Spa but could take them a long way here. Jaxon gets first run at him with Runninson ready to pounce off the outside stalking trip. Factor It In and Eastern Bay are capable Midlantic invaders. And I haven't mentioned Drafted!

Best Value: #8 Runninsonofagun 9-2 WON ($7.30)
Next Best: #4 Jaxon Traveler 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Meraas 5-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Factor It In 8-1 3rd


10th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-Outer

Has feel of wild ending to brutally tough multi sequences..

Best Value: #1 Inflation Adjusted 8-1 WON ($25.40)
Next Best: #6 Relate 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Frenchboro 10-1 11th
Super Add: #2 Sonic Speed 10-1 7th


P6 Grid:

5: 3-6 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-8 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x2x2x2 = $96
All A's: 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $32
Backups: 2x1x2x2x2x2 = $32 (1-3 in 9th)


P5 Grid:

6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-7 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 1x4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups: 1x4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (2-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-7 (C)
10: 1-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups: 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (2-7 in 9th)

$0.50 Pic 4 (2/1,2/8/1) Paid $132.00 (A-A-A-A)



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Bryan Station (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 Play Action Pass 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Wit 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Balnikhov 8-1 WON ($15.28)
Super Add: #9 Wow What a Summer 30-1 9th



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: Twilight Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Degree of Risk 12-1 6th
Next Best: #9 War at Sea Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Handy Dandy 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Perfect Flight 6-1 3rd


Good luck!
Steve

[Max Caidy]

Steve, great call on Inflation Adjusted! Solid day for you at Big A. Thank you!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Max Caidy

Steve, great call on Inflation Adjusted! Solid day for you at Big A. Thank you!

Thanks Max.. That was a nice way to finish. Carmouche riding great. Was surprised we got that price.

Was too bad Prat didn't extricate Mrs. Green earlier in the 6th for chance to snare the P5 too. Hope everyone got something yesterday.