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#1
09-20-2023, 12:38 PM
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9/20: Churchill Downs (5th-9th)
CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES 5th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5) Most Likely: #10 Stormquist 6-5 WON ($3.12) Best Value: #9 Wecallemfuncoupons 6-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Waldrip 5-1 5th Exotics Use: #5 East From West 8-1 6th 6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5) Best Value: #1 Wiki Lio 6-1 6th Next Best: #7 Beaux Artes 7-2 4th Exotics Use: #5 Ball Gown 5-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Mischievous Gal 3-1 WON ($7.12) 7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Coppola 9-5 WON ($3.38) Best Value: #5 Bodenheimer 5-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Shimmer Me Timbers 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #6 Kavod 4-1 3rd 8th: OC/N2X, 3yo, 6f (DD, Hi-5) Best Value: #10 Major Blue 12-1 6th Next Best: #5 Giant Mischief 5-2 WON ($4.80) Exotics Use: #3 Blue Light 4-1 8th Super Add: #9 Retained 8-1 9th 9th: MSW-R, 2yo-F, 1m (Hi-5) Best Value: #9 Despo's Dream 10-1 10th Next Best: #12 Shimmering Allure 5-2 WON ($6.12) Exotics Use: #8 Rock Star Doctor 12-1 6th Super Add: #6 Sterling Luck 20-1 12th P5 Grid: 5: 9-10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C) 6: 1-5-7 (A), 2-6-9 (B), - (C) 7: 1 (A), 5 (B), - (C) 8: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 9-12 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48 All A's: 2x3x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 Backup (C-A-A-A-A): 2x3x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (5-6 in 5th) $0.50 Pick 5 (2,7,10/2,8/1/2,5,6,12/12) Paid $61.60 P4 Grid: 6: 1-5-7 (A), 2-6-9 (B), - (C) 7: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C) 8: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 9-12 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x2 = $48 ($24 for .50) All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 Backup (A-C-A-A): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-6 in 7th) $1 Pick 4 (2,8/1/2,5,6,12/12) $63.32 ($31.66 for .50) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 09-20-2023 at 05:43 PM. 
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#2
09-20-2023, 12:39 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
09-21-2023, 04:44 AM
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Quick sidebar to this sequence yesterday regarding the idea of beating every favorite.. You had 5 straight faves win here for a breakeven proposition, but note the 5th and 7th results where 15-2 and 9-2 runners up could easily have prevailed.. Suddenly you'd go from a $60 return to maybe $250-300 with 3 favorites winning the other legs..
 
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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