6/22: Belmont at The Big A (X-C P5)

[Kasept]

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT (X-C P5 w/ MTH 8th/9th)


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Venge Gate SCR
Next Best: #3 Messi the Magician 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Muazarah 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Bonne Chance 6-1 4th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-Outer (P4, P3, DD)

Deep group and tricky start to daunting Cross Country P5 sequence..

Best Value: #3 Heymackit'sjack 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Final Denile 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Instamatic 2-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #4 Your Man Alex 5-1 4th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

BAQ 8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
MTH 8: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
BAQ 9: 1 (A), 8 (B), 3-7 (C)
MTH 9: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
BAQ 10: 3-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-7 in BAQ 9th)


MONMOUTH 8th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD

Most Likely: #3 Laramore 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Abby the Bull Dawg 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Miss Casey 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Between Dreams 7-2 3rd


9th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Golden Degree 7-2 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #8 Six Pack Senorita 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Gav's Dream Girl 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Spiritual Lady 8-1 5th


MONMOUTH 9th: Goldwood, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #9 Hollywood Walk 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Queen of the Mud 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Beauty of the Sea 7-2 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #10 All That Magic 4-1 4th


10th: Wild Applause, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

As mentioned with Marcus Hersh yesterday, there are several more likely winners than Awesome Czech (15-1), but she represents the layoff return opportunity scenario I frequently bring up. Away 7 months, there's a real chance based on Mendelssohn progeny stats that she comes back at a level well ahead of his opponents..

Best Value: #6 Awesome Czech 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Vino Rouge 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Oversubscribed 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #1 Gala Brand 4-1 5th


11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-Outer

Impossibly messy set where firsters (6-9-10) might not have to be overly special to win, while surface/distance movers (2-4-11-12) and droppers (1-7) can make cases for various levels of inclusion..

Best Value: #7 A Lister 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Holder Close 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Neptune Beach 8-1 7th
Super Add: #12 Arco Augusta 10-1 6th


P5 Grid:

7: 2/SCR-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-7 (A), 1-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 3-6 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-7 (A), 1-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3-7 in 9th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BAQ SCR/CHG'S

MTH SCR/CHG'S

[Sethcarter]

Cc looks tricky.... playing 1,3,4,6,11,12/3/1,3/2,5,9,10/1,9

[ontheoutside]

nice call on last race today steve a listor ran great your not afraid to use these types

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

nice call on last race today steve a listor ran great your not afraid to use these types

THX Tom.. Was a perfect scenario to take a shot with a crazy price. Was a muddled group and on Thoro-Graph, A Lister was an obscured opportunity coming in as fast as anyone (the 13) in the return to turf. Here he was dropping into MCLM company with a chance to be on a loose lead. How do you not take a swing?

Actually didn't take full advantage because I didn't give the winner enough respect thinking he always runs OK, but doesn't win. I caught the exacta on a backwheel, but obviously was disappointed he couldn't hold on and deliver a win bet and the P4.

Here's Thoro-Graph captures showing how viable A Lister was..