12/26: Santa Anita (90th Opening Day)

[Kasept]

SANTA ANITA ~ OPENING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f-DHT (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Count of Amazonia 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Mas Rapido 5-2 8th
Best Value: #5 Into It 12-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Oscar Joy 8-1 9th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Madaket Road wins with anything close to debut try, but 'other' Baffert San Saba working well into this and would be no surprise..

Most Likely: #1 Madaket Road 3-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #7 San Saba 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Targaryis 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Father Ted 10-1 2nd


3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Murky set of turf fillies..

Most Likely: #1 Slick 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #7 Preem 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Lee's Baby Girl 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Big Leap 6-1 8th


4th: CA-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Nondescript bunch make this the card's most puzzling (irksome) group..

Best Value: #3 Big Pop 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Barbara 9-2 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Stop Digging 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Nene Diamond 7-2 5th


5th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Word Play 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Lady Claypoole 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Shocking Grey 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Tiaraqueen 15-1 6th


P5 Grid:

1: 8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
3: 1-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 3-9 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 3-9 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: Laffit Pincay Jr. (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

The longer you look at this, the more likely Katonah feels..

Most Likely: #6 Katonah 3-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Lammas 6-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Express Train 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Tarantino 7-2 2nd


7th: San Gabriel (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Johannes has done little wrong and was only vanquished in Breeder's Cup by More than Looks stunning rally. Mi Hermano Ramon can be used as a C type..

Most Likely: #4 JOHANNES 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #7 Mi Hermano Ramon 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Nineeleventurbo 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Easter 6-1 4th


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-9 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
11: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2 = 8 x $6 = $48 $3 PICK THREE (4/1/8) $15.90 x 2 = $31.80
All A's: 1x2x2 = 4 x $6 = $24 $3 PICK THREE (4/1/8) $15.90 x 2 = $31.80


8th: Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Stronghold (won't be 8-1) and Bentornato SCR (tricky inside draw) bring glaring win candidate number power, but Baffert lit up at Arizona when telling ATR listeners that he was pointing Pilot Commander for this spot and clocker notes further enhance interest in prominent use..

Best Value: #7 Stronghold 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Pilot Commander 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Raging Torrent 9-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #6 Mystik Dan 5-2 6th


P4 Grid:

5: 4-7-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
8: 2-6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 3x2x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


9th: Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Gosford should enjoy advantageous trip up front, but Lord Bullingdon fits on figs and is too big a price not to employ..

Most Likely: #1 King of Gosford 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #9 Lord Bullingdon 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Stay Hot 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Atitlan 8-1 3rd


10th: La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

In the immediate wake of discussion about the event's recent quality, it assembles as good a group as it has seen in a long time. Horses like Tamara SCR (and Stronghold in the Malibu) have a long history of being pointed for and capitalizing on these final G1 opportunities. Baffert fillies lurk as dangers, McCarthy & D'amato too, but trusting Mandella has high profile Tamara ready for best here at a value number..

Most Likely: #7 One Magic Philly 4-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Accuracy 5-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Kinza 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Hope Road 3-1 4th


11th: American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f-T (Hi-5)

Cherie's She Feels Pretty way the one to beat, but Medoro is within range and totes strong worktab..

Most Likely: #8 She Feels Pretty 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Medoro 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Kathynmarissa 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Watchtower 10-1 5th


P5 Grid:

7: 4 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
8: 2-6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-9 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
10: 2-7 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
11: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 1x4x2x2x2 = 32 x.50 = $16
Backup (AACAA): 1x4x2x2x2 = 32 x.50 = $16 (2-5 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-7-8 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
9: 1-9 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
10: 2-3-7 (A), 4-8-9 (B), - (C)
11: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAA): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-5 in 9th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Frustrating day. Thought Lady Claypoole was going on by in the 5th only to lose the photo and knew when Mandella SCR'd Tamara that Kopion would run well and left her off the P5/P4..

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Frustrating day. Thought Lady Claypoole was going on by in the 5th only to lose the photo and knew when Mandella SCR'd Tamara that Kopion would run well and left her off the P5/P4..

Lotsa red on your post thanks Steve
I chose Splendora instead of Kopion....wudda, shudda, cudda, singled "She Feels Pretty" and hit the all button in the 10th .....oh well, smh, try again later