Top 25 Most Overrated Performances of '06

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I posted this at one other place, thought I'd post it here as well...it might lead to some interesting discussions.

This is always a very tricky list. I tend to overlook slow performances in bad Grade 1 races, and focus primarily on horses who ran VERY fast with once-in-a-lifetime trips and circumstances.

In other words, horses like Seek Gold and Sultra didn't make the top 20---for their pathetic Grade 1 wins in time so slow, you could have timed the race with an hour glass or a sundial. Horses who win the coveted Grade 1's that way, (Lemons Forever) will however, get moved up.

Here are my rankings......


#1 Blue Grass Stakes- Sinister Minister.

*Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On that Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run that week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

#2 Arlington Million- The Tin Man

* America's most important Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day was won in theft fashion. It featured an INSANELY slow early pace and almost no passing at all. Perhaps, a less popular, and less likeable horse, wouldn't have been heaped with praise for such a victory. However, the California horse racing radio shows were flooded with callers who took strong offense to The Tin Man's win being criticized.

#3 Kentucky Oaks- Lemons Forever

* While it can be argued that horses like Sultra and Seek Gold were even less deserving Grade 1 winners than this talentless plodder, she did win the most important Grade 1 race in the land for 3-year-old fillies, and deserves this ranking for the wildly circmustance aided way she won it. Aided by an INSANELY hot pace, and a dead-rail track, she looped the field from 14th and last place---a field that was badly fractured.

#4 Goodwood Handicap- Lava Man

* Over the same wildly speed biased race track that yielded the best Beyer figure of the year (Bordonaro's 119 in wire-to-wire style) Lava Man was allowed an uncontested lead through soft early fractions. In what should have been a massacre with a sky high Beyer, Lava Man manged only a 109 figure, and ran absoltuely no better than 3rd place finisher Giacomo did against the circumstances.

#5 Street Sense- Breeders Cup Juvie

* While it was a sight to see---and it can't be easy to knock a double digit Breeders Cup Juvie winner who ran BY FAR a record Beyer figure in that race---the simple fact is that this performance was a circumstancial fluke that will not be repeated anytime soon. In a classic Churchill Downs collapse race (ala Seek Gold, Giacomo, and Lemons Forever) the horses who raced dead last and 2nd to last early on in the Juvie, ended up first and 2nd. The rest of the field BADLY fractured. However, not only was it a dream setup and dream pace scenerio---he also got a sensational rail-skimming ride over a track where the rail path was probably preffered. He also broke from post position #1, that post produced 4-of the-5 dirt winners on Breeders Cup day...the only loser recorded a lifetime top Beyer figure in defeat.

#6. Master Commander- Meadowlands Cup

#7. Jazil- Belmont Stakes

#8. Brother Derek- Santa Anita Derby

#9. Dubai Escapade- Ballerina Handicap

#10. Fleet Indian- Personal Ensign

#11. Henny Hughes- King's Bishop

#12. Aragorn- Eddie Reed

#13. Fabulous Strike- Mountaineer Stake

#14. Brother Derek- San Rafeal

#15. Circular Quay- Hopeful Stakes

#16. Pine Island- Gazelle

#17. Sun King- 2nd place Whitney Stakes

#18. Anew- True North Handicap

#19. Magna Graduate- Queen's County Hanidcap

#20. Bernardini- Jockey Club Gold Cup

#21. Seek Gold- Stephen Foster

#22. Likely- Laffeyette Stakes

#23. Stormello- Hollywood Futurity

#24. Sultra- Frizette Stakes

#25. Lawerence The Roman- Damon Runyon Stakes

[blackthroatedwind]

The inclusion of Sun King was uncalled for.

Yeah, that signature is interesting. Jesus, im thankful I missed the thread its from.

Actually, Drugs... pretty conclusive list. I cant really add any to it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Brother Derek is pretty damn nice horse actually.

However, his wins in both the San Rafeal and the Santa Anita Derby came uncontested on a comfortable lead, through very moderate fractions. Both wins were earned with textbook dream trips.

Brother Derek was made the morning line favorite for the Derby, pretty much off the basis of those two perfect trip wins.

BD is a pretty good horse as it is....however, when he is allowed an easy early lead through moderate fractions...he becomes a VERY good horse.

[Getaway]

I would love to own any one of those horses on that list!

[blackthroatedwind]

I would say a case could be made that Brother Derek's KY Derby was the most wildly overrated performance by a losing horse this year. His wide trip was every phony wise guy's trip of the year causing people to inflate his chances in the Preakness which wasn't going to set up well for him even if he wasn't eliminated early in the race.

Was Discreet Cat's win at Saratoga going to be 25th so you snuck Sun King in just to keep him off the list?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

what no one wonder lady ann l ..totally fell into that gr 1..probebly should be no 1

[Swale84]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would say a case could be made that Brother Derek's KY Derby was the most wildly overrated performance by a losing horse this year. His wide trip was every phony wise guy's trip of the year causing people to inflate his chances in the Preakness which wasn't going to set up well for him even if he wasn't eliminated early in the race.

Was Discreet Cat's win at Saratoga going to be 25th so you snuck Sun King in just to keep him off the list?

Discreet Cat's win against a bunch of nobodys got all the Bernardini haters excited that Bernie would go down.

[cmorioles]

You could throw in ANY race at Delaware Park at any class level.

[Dunbar]

Stopped reading when I got to your #2.

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

You could throw in ANY race at Delaware Park at any class level.

Top 3yo horses from the last two crops, such as Barbaro, Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, and High Limit all won their debuts at Delaware Park, as 2yo's.

But, I know what you're saying CJ....just pointing out that they have had a few very impressive debut winners lately.

[KirisClown]

It's Sutra....

[KirisClown]

Id add Electrocutionist's Dubai race to the list as well....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Stopped reading when I got to your #2.

--Dunbar

I agree....he should have made it first.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Stopped reading when I got to your #2.

--Dunbar

I have as much respect for The Tin Man as a horse as I do any horse in racing.

However, anyone with even a basic understanding of horse racing knows that his win in the Arlington Million was VERY circumstance aided. It was a total Merry-go-round race through hilariously slow fractions.

It was an absolute theft of America's #1 Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day....and if that race wasn't won by a horse who is as incredible as The Tin Man is, NO ONE that is competent would have ever taken it seriously.

Popular horse, awesome horse, I'm a big fan of his...but his Arlington Million win was simply a theft, with a one-in-a-lifetime trip.

[Danzig]

i think seek golds win is too far down on the list. i think the tin man shouldn't have been included. that race is what it is. a slow front runner deserves no more grief than a late closer who had a ton of pace to run at.
i think including pine island is in bad taste.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I posted this at one other place, thought I'd post it here as well...it might lead to some interesting discussions.

This is always a very tricky list. I tend to overlook slow performances in bad Grade 1 races, and focus primarily on horses who ran VERY fast with once-in-a-lifetime trips and circumstances.

In other words, horses like Seek Gold and Sultra didn't make the top 20---for their pathetic Grade 1 wins in time so slow, you could have timed the race with an hour glass or a sundial. Horses who win the coveted Grade 1's that way, (Lemons Forever) will however, get moved up.

Here are my rankings......


#1 Blue Grass Stakes- Sinister Minister.

*Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On that Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run that week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

#2 Arlington Million- The Tin Man

* America's most important Turf race not run on Breeders Cup day was won in theft fashion. It featured an INSANELY slow early pace and almost no passing at all. Perhaps, a less popular, and less likeable horse, wouldn't have been heaped with praise for such a victory. However, the California horse racing radio shows were flooded with callers who took strong offense to The Tin Man's win being criticized.

#3 Kentucky Oaks- Lemons Forever

* While it can be argued that horses like Sultra and Seek Gold were even less deserving Grade 1 winners than this talentless plodder, she did win the most important Grade 1 race in the land for 3-year-old fillies, and deserves this ranking for the wildly circmustance aided way she won it. Aided by an INSANELY hot pace, and a dead-rail track, she looped the field from 14th and last place---a field that was badly fractured.

#4 Goodwood Handicap- Lava Man

* Over the same wildly speed biased race track that yielded the best Beyer figure of the year (Bordonaro's 119 in wire-to-wire style) Lava Man was allowed an uncontested lead through soft early fractions. In what should have been a massacre with a sky high Beyer, Lava Man manged only a 109 figure, and ran absoltuely no better than 3rd place finisher Giacomo did against the circumstances.

#5 Street Sense- Breeders Cup Juvie

* While it was a sight to see---and it can't be easy to knock a double digit Breeders Cup Juvie winner who ran BY FAR a record Beyer figure in that race---the simple fact is that this performance was a circumstancial fluke that will not be repeated anytime soon. In a classic Churchill Downs collapse race (ala Seek Gold, Giacomo, and Lemons Forever) the horses who raced dead last and 2nd to last early on in the Juvie, ended up first and 2nd. The rest of the field BADLY fractured. However, not only was it a dream setup and dream pace scenerio---he also got a sensational rail-skimming ride over a track where the rail path was probably preffered. He also broke from post position #1, that post produced 4-of the-5 dirt winners on Breeders Cup day...the only loser recorded a lifetime top Beyer figure in defeat.

#6. Master Commander- Meadowlands Cup

#7. Jazil- Belmont Stakes

#8. Brother Derek- Santa Anita Derby

#9. Dubai Escapade- Ballerina Handicap

#10. Fleet Indian- Personal Ensign

#11. Henny Hughes- King's Bishop

#12. Aragorn- Eddie Reed

#13. Fabulous Strike- Mountaineer Stake

#14. Brother Derek- San Rafeal

#15. Circular Quay- Hopeful Stakes

#16. Pine Island- Gazelle

#17. Sun King- 2nd place Whitney Stakes

#18. Anew- True North Handicap

#19. Magna Graduate- Queen's County Hanidcap

#20. Bernardini- Jockey Club Gold Cup

#21. Seek Gold- Stephen Foster

#22. Likely- Laffeyette Stakes

#23. Stormello- Hollywood Futurity

#24. Sultra- Frizette Stakes

#25. Lawerence The Roman- Damon Runyon Stakes

1. Very impressive.

2. You show up, you run, you win, you've earned it. Period. There was no law at Keeneland saying you couldn't take on SinMin early. Same for Hollywood and Lava Man.

3. In my mind, the only arguably overrated graded race winners ran in off-the-turf races.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by KirisClown

It's Sutra....

She's so bad....I don't even want to know her name!

[Danzig]

and poor anew...bad enough he has to lose his junk, and now he's on that list.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree....he should have made it first.

I know---I might have put Sun King on this list simply to annoy you.

However...

In the Whitney, he came within a head of beating Invasor...and that was a VERY misleading result...but you already know that, because you're sharp.

Invasor made a bold and totally pre-mature move in that race, Jara sent him inside of Flower Alley just prior to about the 3/4 pole, a move that clearly suggested he thought that he would be ensured of victory if he could simply put Flower Alley away. He wasn't much worried about anyone else.

Invasor was hooked up with Flower Alley for almost five furlongs in that race, very impressively put him away with complete authority at the 1/8th pole, and still had enough left to fight off a DREAM TRIP Sun King. Who could not get passed a very softened up Invasor.