12/23: Stakes/FG P4

[Kasept]

Strange day at Calder Friday as the late quad LOST $9 with chalk ruling the action. The low-priced winners give credence to the multiple ticket approach that has you 'heavying up' on a narrow ticket with the 'most likely winners'.

Family Credit (8th), Afleet Lulu (9th), My Prefered (10th) and Band Together (11th) were all ML favorites and the most likely winners, and all but Afleet Lulu were my top selections. Chiara (2nd in the 9th after flipping behind the gate) was prefered over Afleet Lulu, and only a lousy multiple check trip prevented her from winning. A 1x1x2x1 ticket for $10 ($20 total), in addition to the wider and defensive $48 play, would turn the $39 mutuel and $9 loss into a $234 return and $166 profit on the $68 investment. Just some food for thought...

Very light schedule around the country this weekend... Fairgrounds P4 worth a look and two interesting stakes at Turfway and Laurel. Racing kicks back intoi a higher gear after Xmas with Santa Anita opening Tuesday and Aqueduct resuming Wednesday... Until then, best wishes for a wonderful Christmas.


SELECTIONS -- Fairgrounds, 7th-10th (Late P4)


7th (4:12pm): LA-bred ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, Superfecta)

1. #5 Crescent Deputy 8-1
2. #7 Dr. Schwartz 9-2 WON
A. #2 SCRATCHED
B. #4 El's City Boy 12-1


8th (4:39pm): OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3)

1. #3 Swept Gold 3-1
2. #5 Everything Good 7-2 3rd
3. #6 Madame Menmahune 6-1 WON

LONGSHOT ALERT: #2 Bayley Alley 12-1


9th (5:06pm): The Bonapaw, $75,000, 3+, 5,5f-T (DD, Superfecta)

OFF THE TURF...

1. #3 Smalltown Slew 7-2 2nd
2. #7 Monkey Hill 6-1 4th
A. #2 Mystery Classic 4-1
B. #8 SCRATCHED Sub #1e

LONGSHOT ALERT/EXOTICS ADD: #9 Rodeo's Classic 15-1


10th (5:35pm): MDN CLM, F&M-3,4,5yo, 5.5f (Superfecta)

1. #3 Lift Me Higher 3-1 2nd
2. #9 Meleysamore 7-2 WON
A. #6 Have Mercy On Me 6-1
B. #1 SCRATCHED


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-5-7
8: 3-5
9: 1e-2-3-7
10: 3-9

3x2x4x2 = $48


SELECTIONS -- Turfway Park


11th (5:45pm): The Gowell, $50,000, 2yo fillies, 6f (.10 min. Superfecta)

1. #3 Over the Edge 9-5 2nd
2. #10 Colton's Magic Cat 12-1
A. #11 She's Impossible 12-1
B. #2 Sheets 3-1 3rd

LONGSHOT ALERT/EXOTICS ADD: #12 Miss A Bomb 20-1 WON!! @ 21-1

TRI BX: $308
EX BX: $141


SELECTIONS -- Laurel Race Course


8th (3:37pm): The Squan Song, $50,000, F&M-3+, 7f

1. #4 Yolanda B. Too 8-5 WON on DQ
2. #3 Mint Landing 4-1 3rd
A. #12 Lady of Summer 4-1
B. #5 SCRATCHED

LONGSHOT ALERT/EXOTICS ADD: #6 SCRATCHED


Good luck!
Steve

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

9th (5:06pm): The Bonapaw, $75,000, 3+, 5,5f-T (DD, Superfecta)

Almost certain to be run OFF THE TURF...

1. #3 Smalltown Slew 7-2
2. #7 Monkey Hill 6-1
A. #2 Mystery Classic 4-1
B. #8 All Wired Up 8-1

LONGSHOT ALERT/EXOTICS ADD: #9 Rodeo's Classic 15-1


Good luck!
Steve

I like Rodeo's Castle too & both of Amoss' entries...good luck!

(Gaff will somehow run to some of his earlier form and tick me off though)

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I like Rodeo's Castle too & both of Amoss' entries...good luck!

(Gaff will somehow run to some of his earlier form and tick me off though)

That's pretty much the way I picked them too even down to the longshot, but it seemed like a toss-up between Mystery Classic and Smalltown Slew.
Pace definitely favors Smalltown, but Mystery seems likely to get the lead out of the gate. He has raced against softer, but posted a solid fig last out.
Also, a little afraid of Gaff, but he doesn't seem to be showing any signs of waking up.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by cal828

That's pretty much the way I picked them too even down to the longshot, but it seemed like a toss-up between Mystery Classic and Smalltown Slew.
Pace definitely favors Smalltown, but Mystery seems likely to get the lead out of the gate. He has raced against softer, but posted a solid fig last out.
Also, a little afraid of Gaff, but he doesn't seem to be showing any signs of waking up.

Have to take that back about Gaff. Has a couple of decent works and making second start. His connections have won their share. 4,5,8 and 12 have been scratched in here and the track is Fast.

7) SPARKLING JACK does not posess much number power but he may be sitting on his best race. Delta comebacker much better than it looks as inside speed dominated and older open 2X just a tick faster. In his last he was wide (in a race that many of these come out of) and was not about to catch the dominant winner. It was Wright's only mount of the day and the switch to G. Money should greatly help the cause. Also SOMEDREAMS..... who broke his maiden at odds on, in very quick come home time even if it was aided by a loose horse. Sophomore from clever owner/trainer needed his last when favored and last Sunday half should put him right there, and lastly STORMY SURGE who may prefer more ground but sheds poundage, gets Talamo and Sunday blowout spot on. Three deep.

8) Hard to go past ADA's DREAM. Touch Gold filly toured Churchill in 1:22 flat in her second start and immediately was sold to present connections. Ambitiously sent to Chicago for a stake, she rebounded with wire job in Florence. Stretchout experiment on the Keeneland poly proved a disaster but filly worked exceptional at Churchill before stopping in her last. Bejarano road that day and fought her, which was odd because she rated kindly in her works leading up to that race under both Hernandez and Lanerie. At any rate Robbie takes over and he is good on speed and with fillies and if she relaxes early the party is over.

Bonapaw: Difficult to assess how much GAFF got out of his comebacker when he got away poorly and never fired, but he is the best horse if fit enough. Twice before he has taken a race to get to his best, once finishing second to anice horse in a Graded stake and once beating Premium Tap. He certainly has faced better. Maria's Mon 4yo worked twelve days out, then a nice move seven days later, then the blowout earlier this week, a pattern this barn utilizes and is deadly with... the blinkers experiment appears over and Donnie on the reride..the most likely winner? Adding the entry and Smalltown Slew. Either of the Overbrook Storm Cats could win and Amoss yet to get to the bottom on Slew who he has managed brilliantly.

10) Jr Girl should have little trouble with these the only concern if they are using this as a prep for January 13 statebred. Franks bred came off 54 week vacation, caught the 14 hole, was bet at six to one and made the lead late to miss. Entered right back she was off at 5-2 but probably bled. In her last she was caught very wide but ran on to to get beat a couple of heads with Md Sp Wt race earlier on the card a tick quicker. Sold after that race she shows three well spaced works and gets Riquelme. Dam has tossed five and all have won. Adding CONSEQUENTLY who has awful form but drops way down. Dam earned big money and only other foal could run. Tossing only dirt start when catching the rail on sealed Stickney surface and Richie very good on this work pattern for long time client. Call it 1,2,8 / 6 / 1,3, 6 / 6, 12 No time to proof. Good cappin. BBB

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

bbb thanks for playing.......lol i really am not busting balls ...but you have called the majority of this board incompetent..then you pull this... sorry but you my friend are full of ****..

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

(Gaff will somehow run to some of his earlier form and tick me off though)

Doesn't it always suck more when you call it in advance?

Did that last weekend with the stakes race at Hawthorne that killed what turned out to be a big pick-4.

Not much to this rehash as the sequence was very vanilla with about a hundred winning tickets sold. The plan was solid; single the standout Ada's Dream and build around her, a strategy that has served us well, but price horses were nowhere to be found! Sparkling Jack our "A" horse @ 30-1 in leg one did run a new top but was no match for the winner who also improved about ten lengths. Horses that move from Guillot's barn to another are always good plays.

Ada' romped, then Gaff gamely delivered @16.20 and the last leg was logical. Our other "A" Jr Girl ranged up and looked like a winner three eighths out, but ran out of conditioning soon thereafter. Odd that the bug was not favored in the last! Our other play was bet way way down and showed little.

Even with a bad track playing @FG today as the late four has some false favorites and I always take a vacation this time of year. No not to a sunny warm destination, we always go to International Falls Mn.!! Thanks to Hoss and Hooves for their kind words and happy holidays to all. Good cappin. BBB

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Doesn't it always suck more when you call it in advance?

Did that last weekend with the stakes race at Hawthorne that killed what turned out to be a big pick-4.

If you ever want to get rich at the track listen to my last minute, "now this horse will win"......