Saturday plays

[golfer]

This is for you, Steve, thanks to the free Thorograph #'s I'll give it a shot. All picks are based on Thorograph sheet reads, not taking into consideration any track bias that may occur.

Aqueduct:
1st: looks like the 1, Suave Jazz & the 2B, Bold Mon.. Coppertone is dangerous off 0-3-X pattern (I know 0-2-X is considered a positive pattern, not sure about 0-3-X?)

2nd: 4 Weekend Gambler (I love the name) is the fastest of those who have run.. 5,6,7, & 10 are dangerous.

3rd: 7 Abraaj is fastest coming in with 4-7 in last 2, repeat of either should be fast enough

4th: 7 Biohazzard is fastest with pair 10's downside is Sutherland

5th: 7 Jack Atax has best looking pattern, 10 10 9, most likely to run well, 1a Brave Sir Robin can pair 8, and 8 Worthy lover may get back to 8, 6 Skim the Rail bounced on short rest in last, 9 previous

6th: 8 Mr Hamlen off a troubled, buried 4 is fastest, with 1 Sweetiewheatie, 3 Tasteyville and 7 Shuffling Madness

7th: 9 Precise Star, coming off pair 2's at Finger Lakes should win, using 2 D Money, 3 Hesa Lumberjack and 7 Himarshee underneath

8th: 3 Successful Affair is obvious choice, off pair 2's... 4 Angliana bounced in last after running 3 zero's (shorter distances)

9th: 10 Mister Zee seems the most likely, circle back pattern, should run 9 or better... with 5 Pratt, 11 Meeses to Pieces and 9 Start at Five (layoff is troubling)


Tampa Bay: (I am using the 2nd Florida start angle often, we'll see if it's a legitimate one)

1st: 1 Chapped Lips and 8 Taps Return

2nd: 4 Alexander 2nd timer Aleczanndar seems most likely winner

3rd: 3 The Lady Waffles (2nd Florida start) with 8 & 9 underneath

4th: 3 Seabury.. played him 2 weeks ago to get back to the 5 two starts previous, took a ton of money, gate opened.. 1 dimensional speed ball got left and didn't lift a hoof, giving another chance, hopefully at morning line odds or better...with 4, 5 7, 9, 10, 11 and 12
7th: the 2 favorites look the best, 7 Ecru Egret and 8 Tonka Cruz

8th: 6 Rolling True ships in off pair 7's, 2 Secretoftheheart shortens up off 11, 9, 10 pattern, 8 Foret ships in off paired 8's, and the 12 Special Cheers is dangerous at big price going turf to dirt off 17, 11, 8 (turf) pattern.


9th: 2 Belichek is solid 2nd of layoff, 7 Road of Tradition (2nd Florida start) switching surface and distance may be nice price

11th: 8 Shotty (2nd Florida start) going turf to dirt



Calder

2nd: 2 Stormin Bagdhad, short price but looks strong

6th: 8 Splendid in Spring

8th: 2 Outperformance is fastest, with 3, 7, 10
9th: 6 Toll Taker has best pattern

10th: 1 J'Ray is not standout fast, but should move forward with good trip, 6 Rasta Farian is nice price

12th: 12 Cuban Hawk

Good luck to all

[Scav]

Coppertone is dangerous off 0-3-X pattern (I know 0-2-X is considered a positive pattern, not sure about 0-3-X?)

Golfer, fyi, 0-2=x is actually a negative pattern for the horse, POSITIVE for us gamblers. I THOUGHT the exact same thing as you did.

What it says is that if a horse runs his top, and then moved back 2 points, the pattern has shown to 'x' or run a bad number.

[Kasept]

There is a proviso regarding 0-2-X.. and that is time between starts and maturity of the horse.

A 2yo that runs a "10" (0) and then a "12" (2) may horse very well "bounce to a "17-20" (X) if running back on about 21 days rest. But give that same 2yo 35-42 days, and he may likely "pair" up to the 10-12 range, and possibly even move forward.

Three years olds that run healthy patterns are particularly adept at pairing up. When you see a soph running sheet figures or Beyers that show pairs of numbers followed by progression to another set of pair-ups, you're seeing a healthy horse that is improving steadily.

Thunder Gulch has about the most perfect development arc you'd ever want to see... On TG, he ran:

18.5 in his career debut (69 Beyer);
15.25 in his Maiden win (82 Beyer);
15 when 2nd in Cowdin (79 Beyer);
14.75 when 4th in the Nashua (79 Beyer).

Note the career start... Fairly easy debut followed by a forward move and 2 pair ups.

Then he moved forward:

11 in the Remsen win (89 Beyer) and paired the
11 when 2nd in the HOL Futurity (99 Beyer).

60 day break followed, and then he ripped into the great 3yo campaign:

2/18-Fountain of Youth: 3.5 (105 Beyer) WIN, a new top in seasonal debut.. (You love to see a three year old run as fast very early in his soph campaign as he did at the end of his juvy campaign. Here, he was suddenly much faster)

3/11-Florida Derby: 3.5 (101 Beyer) WIN, a pair up

4/15-Blue Grass: 5.5 (101 Beyer) 4TH, an "off effort" (a slight regression from the new top and pair up. Now this can be seen as an 0-2 normally with anticipation for an X... But Thunder Gulch was in the midst of a perfectly orchestrated career, and was healthy as can be. People misjudged his 4th in the Blue Grass as a sign to abandon him, when in fact he was about to run his typical "A" race again three weeks later. And of course 'Pat Day off, Gary Stevens on' was a big plus..)

5/6-Kentucky Derby: 3.5 (108 Beyer) WIN, a pair up

He stayed at the high level through the early summer, and then raised his top and paired that with the back to back wins in the Travers and KY Cup Classic.

An example...

[golfer]

Steve and Scav, thanks for the feedback...despite a couple of winners, it was a nightmare of a day... I did finish 2nd alot at Aqueduct, was alive with 2 in the late pick 4 at Tampa, only to finish 3rd and 5th. In a span of 10 minutes, went from possibly collecting 7,000 on live pick 3 and pick 4 to Zilch! That totally broke my spirit. I think I vowed to give up the game at that point, not sure. One thing I have learned from TG and watching 100's of races is how important saving ground is... why is it that jockey's don't seem to understand this concept? I just noticed a thread about staying away from Calder.. I wish I was smart enough to do that.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve and Scav, thanks for the feedback...despite a couple of winners, it was a nightmare of a day... I did finish 2nd alot at Aqueduct, was alive with 2 in the late pick 4 at Tampa, only to finish 3rd and 5th. In a span of 10 minutes, went from possibly collecting 7,000 on live pick 3 and pick 4 to Zilch! That totally broke my spirit. I think I vowed to give up the game at that point, not sure. One thing I have learned from TG and watching 100's of races is how important saving ground is... why is it that jockey's don't seem to understand this concept? I just noticed a thread about staying away from Calder.. I wish I was smart enough to do that.

it is of my opinion that before jocks get their license they should sit through a Thorograph seminar....The Gallant Fox is a perfect example of that yesterday, four horse was 2w the whole race where the 3 horse skimmed the rail the whole time until he needed to go.

Now here is what is interesting about TG. the 4 horse will end up getting a BETTER number then the 3 horse, because ground loss will get factored