Gulfstream First 3 Days...

[SentToStud]

For me, January is a month to go to Gulfstream Park a lot and have fun. I don't seriously gamble at all during the month except to bet the Pelican Stakes at Tampa. But I also watch and take notes on Gulf and Tampa fairly closely during the month.

Here's what I've seen at Gulfstream through three days:

Most important, the weather's been perfect with no major rain since two days prior to opening day. So, that, at least is a constant.

Turf:
Rail at 84' for all 3 days.

Total Races: 9 (all 2-turn)
# Races won by horses running 1-2-3 at 1/2 Mile Pole: 1
# Horses Finishing ITM after running 1-2-3 at 1/2 Mile Pole: 5 (of 27)

I don't really take much away from the turf results other than it's awfully impressive to have a temp rail set at 84'.

Dirt:
Total Races: 19
# Races won by horse leading at First Measured Call: 2

The two front-running winners include one dead heat. Both these races saw the winner(s) far clear of the next finsher.

Not a lot of races to infer from, but it gets a bit more interesing looking at how the failed front runners wound up.

Here's Wednesday's losing speed,showing the horse's odds and finish:

4/1 4th
7/1 2nd
7/5 2nd
7/2 2nd
7/1 4th

Here's Saturday:

4/1 2nd
8/5 4th
2/1 4th
7/2 5th
2/1 6th
99/1 7th

The inference is that speed did not hold as well Saturday as it did the first day of the meet. And it did not hold up very well then.

Friday was more like Wednesday than Saturday.

Winners on the dirt are generally coming from not far off the pace and inside closing moves have been successful.

Take away what you want but I'd be careful wagering on high speed at a short number and would be more willing than usual to take a shot with an off-pace sort with positive attributes at a high enough number.

goodluck.

[TheSpyder]

Excellent info STS,

This is the kind of stuff that can help lead you to the right horse when your capping,

Thanks

Spyder from SC

PS: You going to continue this for the meet?

While I appreciate your efforts, the nature of things is that they change. Rains and/or track maintenance can do it in a heart beat. Trainers who are ready for bear early, tank out. Dying speed can suddenly last after a little harrowing and/or rolling. The turf rail will be changed and the closers suddenly can't make it as speed dominates. Its the nature of the game, and while paying attention is called for, as the ad says, " your mileage may vary". I personally do alot of inspection handicapping, one thing which I find profitable. The other thing I pay attention to is the dynamics of the the race at hand. How will the race take shape, and then I apply the info you write of in conjuction with this. Make sense ? sometimes it works like a charm , others its , why do I bother spending time on all this ? The fun of the game.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

For me, January is a month to go to Gulfstream Park a lot and have fun. I don't seriously gamble at all during the month except to bet the Pelican Stakes at Tampa. But I also watch and take notes on Gulf and Tampa fairly closely during the month.

Here's what I've seen at Gulfstream through three days:

Most important, the weather's been perfect with no major rain since two days prior to opening day. So, that, at least is a constant.

Turf:
Rail at 84' for all 3 days.

Total Races: 9 (all 2-turn)
# Races won by horses running 1-2-3 at 1/2 Mile Pole: 1
# Horses Finishing ITM after running 1-2-3 at 1/2 Mile Pole: 5 (of 27)

I don't really take much away from the turf results other than it's awfully impressive to have a temp rail set at 84'.

Dirt:
Total Races: 19
# Races won by horse leading at First Measured Call: 2

The two front-running winners include one dead heat. Both these races saw the winner(s) far clear of the next finsher.

Not a lot of races to infer from, but it gets a bit more interesing looking at how the failed front runners wound up.

Here's Wednesday's losing speed,showing the horse's odds and finish:

4/1 4th
7/1 2nd
7/5 2nd
7/2 2nd
7/1 4th

Here's Saturday:

4/1 2nd
8/5 4th
2/1 4th
7/2 5th
2/1 6th
99/1 7th

The inference is that speed did not hold as well Saturday as it did the first day of the meet. And it did not hold up very well then.

Friday was more like Wednesday than Saturday.

Winners on the dirt are generally coming from not far off the pace and inside closing moves have been successful.

Take away what you want but I'd be careful wagering on high speed at a short number and would be more willing than usual to take a shot with an off-pace sort with positive attributes at a high enough number.

goodluck.