Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1

[CapperZeke]

KDFW POOL 1 WAGERING INTERESTS:

#, Wagering Interest, ML odds

1. Adore the Gold, 20-1
2. Any Given Saturday, 20-1
3. Belgravia, 20-1
4. Buffalo Man, 30-1
5. Circular Quay, 15-1
6. Day Pass, 15-1
7. Dreaming of Anna (f), 15-1
8. Drums of Thunder, 30-1
9. E Z Warrior, 15-1
10. Exhale, 20-1
11. Forefathers, 30-1
12. Great Hunter, 30-1
13. Hard Spun, 20-1
14. Lawrence the Roman, 30-1
15. Liquidity, 20-1
16. Nobiz Like Shobiz, 8-1
17. Notional, 15-1
18. Out of Gwedda, 30-1
19. Ravel, 15-1
20. Scat Daddy, 30-1
21. Stormello, 20-1
22. Street Sense, 12-1
23. Zanjero, 30-1
24. All Other 3-year-olds, 7-2

[slotdirt]

Biggest waste of money going...

unless you are taking "the field" i have to believe there are no good values up there. a check through the history books will probably show higher race day odds of previous winners, with no risk of not starting and losing without even racing.

[SniperSB23]

If I were foolish enough to bet this I'd go with Any Given Saturday at 20-1 and Great Hunter at 30-1.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by robfla

unless you are taking "the field" i have to believe there are no good values up there. a check through the history books will probably show higher race day odds of previous winners, with no risk of not starting and losing without even racing.

In other years---the field looked more attractive.

IMO, this years Derby winner is absolutely among the 23 individual betting intrests.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

a check through the history books will probably show higher race day odds of previous winners, with no risk of not starting and losing without even racing.

Not true in general.

Barbaro paid $40.20 in Pool 1 (vs $14.20 at the track)
Funny Cide $188 (vs $27.60)
Monarchos $36.60 (vs $23)
FuPeg $27.80 (vs $6.60)

Smarty Jones, Charismatic and War Emblem were part of the Field. Only Giacomo paid less as an individual entry in Pool 1 than on race day.

To dismiss a parimutual future pool out of hand is a mistake, IMO.

--Dunbar

[JudyGold]

Remember the odds will change. You can find value after someone dumps $20k on the field to make it 9-5.





p.s. also look fot Nobiz like Showbiz to be bet hard as well.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

If I were foolish enough to bet this I'd go with Any Given Saturday at 20-1 and Great Hunter at 30-1.

It's parimutual, Sniper. I doubt you'll be seeing 30-1 on Great Hunter.

Tell me why you think betting the future pool is "foolish".

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's parimutual, Sniper. I doubt you'll be seeing 30-1 on Great Hunter.

Tell me why you think betting the future pool is "foolish".

--Dunbar

I just don't think betting future pools are the best wagers to be making. Not only is there a strong chance that you will lose the wager because your horse doesn't even run in the Derby (which to me takes away the fun of wagering) but you are also giving up your money for more than 3 months when you could be making interest on it. I need instant gratification from my betting dollar. To each their own though. It may be parimutual but what is the takeout?

[Dunbar]

Here are two reasons I think it is NOT foolish to bet this future:

1. Takeout is 16%, same as Churchill.
2. Some incredibly unsavvy money is bet. To get an inkling of this, just add up the money that will be bet on Circular Quay and Notional BEFORE they race on Saturday. (which is well before the close of betting on Sunday.) People will also overestimate the chance that Dreaming of Anna's connections will even choose to run in the Derby.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Not true in general.

Barbaro paid $40.20 in Pool 1 (vs $14.20 at the track)
Funny Cide $188 (vs $27.60)
Monarchos $36.60 (vs $23)
FuPeg $27.80 (vs $6.60)

Smarty Jones, Charismatic and War Emblem were part of the Field. Only Giacomo paid less as an individual entry in Pool 1 than on race day.

To dismiss a parimutual future pool out of hand is a mistake, IMO.

--Dunbar

This pool is good for a 10-25$ birthday present bet.

Sure those were good, if you can spot them that far ahead and IF they start. I can name many more bad bets than good ones in this pool. here are a couple:

Declan's Moon 5-1, Sir Cherokee, Galloping Grocer, Rockport Harbor, Wimbledon and St. Averil =DIDNT START

Smarty Jones 8/5 PAID 10.20
Giacomo 25/1 PAID 102.60


Winning payout Pool 1 Pool 2 Pool 3 Derby payout
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20 $32.20 $20.80 $14.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00 $54.20 $103.60 $102.60
2004 (Smarty Jones) $5.60 $10.80 $23.60 $10.20
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00 $120.80 $107.40 $27.60
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60 $16.00 $24.00 $43.00
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60 $13.00 $15.80 $23.00
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80 $26.40 $8.00** $6.60
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20 $30.20 $26.60 $64.60
* = field

lets add Achilles of Troy and Corintian to the DNS list.

To succeed in this venture, a number of positive events must come to pass: Your horse must be healthy enough and have enough career earnings to even get into the starting gate. The selection must win the toughest race to handicap in the land. And finally, he has to pay odds that are greater than those that your horse will actually go postward in the Derby.

[philcski]

Vegas future books used to be a lot better, but they've depressed their odds so significantly on ANY horse that's shown talent they're no longer worth it.

If Hard Spun is 25-1 or higher, I'll take a shot on him.

[Gander]

If "all others" is 3/1 or higher, its the best bet of all.

Most likely you are looking at all others being 9/5 or 2/1, but stranger things have happened and a lot of experts are very high on Nobiz like Shobiz.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gander

If "all others" is 3/1 or higher, its the best bet of all.

Most likely you are looking at all others being 9/5 or 2/1, but stranger things have happened and a lot of experts are very high on Nobiz like Shobiz.

The fact that Smarty Jones was in the field the first two pools was a joke that year.

[cakes44]

How about adding First Samurai to the DNS list. That horse took alot of money in all 3 pools last year. This would back Dunbar's idea that you can take advantage of some foolish money in these future pools.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I just don't think betting future pools are the best wagers to be making. Not only is there a strong chance that you will lose the wager because your horse doesn't even run in the Derby (which to me takes away the fun of wagering) but you are also giving up your money for more than 3 months when you could be making interest on it. I need instant gratification from my betting dollar. To each their own though. It may be parimutual but what is the takeout?

Are you serious about the "instant gratification"? The only "fun of wagering" for me is winning. Losing a race by my horse finishing second isn't any more fun for me than losing a race by my horse not starting (from a future bet).

Factoring in the chance that a horse doesn't start is just one more variable, and it's one that I can probably estimate better than the casual bettor. Therefore, it's one more way I have an edge over the casual bettor.

Your comment about "giving up your money for more than 3 months" is a good argument. If you have to make a choice between a good bet going off today and a future bet with the same edge, than the future bet has to take a back seat. However, if your future bet is competing with bank interest, then it doesn't have to be all that good. You will make less than 1.5% on your money with bank interest between now and the Derby. If your future bet has a 3% edge, it's better than bank interest.

I am reasonably certain that one of the highest EV bets I made last year was in Future Pool 1.

btw, I'd certainly agree that most of the entries are bad bets. Anytime someone is taking 16% out of the pool, most or all of the entries are going to be bad bets.

--Dunbar

[peddler]

one hundred percent agree with your assessment Sniper. Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter only two up there offering any value, although if I could book NBLS at eight it might be worth it. However one must belive that he will be much lower come Sunday night

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

It's a lot of fun....doesn't hurt to put a deuce on a horse or two
just gotta find your spots...the field is only appealling in the last pool
when the odds are best. Dreaming of Anna is a play against...doubt she'll face the boys. Don't care for Scat Daddy either off his Holy Bull and he may haved peaked last year. Interesting runners in my opinion are; Any Given Saturday, Day Pass and Ravel. Will probably play those three in the first pool.

[slotdirt]

Hard Spun at 20-1 isn't value?