Becoming a better handicapper!

It seems everyday books, blogs, websites, touts and services are coming up with new methods to predict the outcome of thoroughbred horse races. The newest from Brisnet regarding pace pars, plus and minus, is excellent, yet many others are nebulous in scope and unreliable in practice.

While handicapping will never be a sexy exercise, and the amount of talented 'cappers out there has never been greater, good solid returns can still be achieved for those that correctly interpret the myriad of data available. Certainly winners are selected from a wide variety of methods, but employing the following step by step approach will lead you to picking more winners, whether you are just starting out or a grizzled veteran.

While the DRF is a neccessity, a tool I am lost without is a piece of strong construction paper slightly darker in color than the form. Two red pens, one felt, one fine point, a yellow flourescent highlighter, and other colored (red, blue, orange etc.) highlighters, the type used to highlight textbooks are other useful implements. The paper and pens are certainly optional but will improve your game if used. The paper helps separate the three facets and helps you analyze the horse and its past performances in chronological order. The biggest mistake in handicapping is to work backwords. Always start your analysis at conception, then work to the present, and the construction paper helps you stay focused.

The three facets of proper handicapping are identifying the task, the applicants, and their resumes/past performances. I am going to play the Fairgrounds late pick 4 Friday and will use that sequence to explain. If the handicapping appears primitive and without long study, it is; but please bear in mind I will spend an additional five or six hours of examination, and the purpose of this post is the method. I will post the play and more complete analysis here early tommorrow afternoon.

Leg one, (race 7) Take your construction paper and look only at the race conditions or "task". About eight and a half furlongs, on the turf, for maiden 3yo fillies, under 122 pounds with the rail at 15 feet. Understanding the conditions will give the handicapper some direction in what they are looking for in a potential winner. A horse almost certain to be on the ticket is Jacks New Cat. Using the construction paper look at "the applicant" anotherwords his breeding, sales history and connections.

Note he is bred to go long, probably on grass and brought a decent price at auction while consigned by a reasonably prominent Oklahoma operation. Also Greg Whitehead is his owner, Paul Murphy trains and Gerard Melancon is listed to ride. By all means use your flourescent pen to highlight first Lasix.

Again using your paper check out Jacks' resume ( previous starts and works). Always go as far back as possible and for Jack' he worked a bullet three furlongs in September at Louisiana Downs. He had two 30 day gaps in his works (never a good sign) then was rushed into his debut after a good blowout. As his odds suggested and works confirmed he was off poorly and slow to get his coordination yet finished very well behind a good looking Juddmonte firster. At first glance somewhat penalize his late close due to the leader Mount Glitter blowing a three length lead in the stretch, also use your yellow pen to highlight Mount Glitter (who came back to win on Jan 29th) on both Jacks' pp's and those of number 6 Fiera Diva.

Race eight: The task...3yo's which are nonwinners of two races or which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred. Weight 122. I would use my yellow pen here to highlight non winners of a race "at a mile or over since January 16 allowed two pounds, such a race since then 4 pounds"! Immediately notice Assmussen takes a huge edge in that he qualifies for the weight off, and, gives a leg up to the bug, so in at a featherly 113!

An applicant: Ketchikan: Big sale price, from potent connections, Larry M on the reride. Personally I find the Tomlinson numbers without merit but they are there. Also the logo indicates Triple crown nominated.

The two start resume and work history (bullet at CD in July) certainly points out a colt with a future.

Race Nine: Three different conditions. Entrants are tagged for 50K OR are nonwinners of four races OR are nonwinners of three races other than...maiden, claiming, starter or statebred.

The applicants/entrants include Golden Glen and he is pure race horse. I would highlight in yellow the weight he carries 114 because of Talamo. Also of note although off topic, is his owner Stony Oak farm, located near Paris Ky much of the movie Seabiscuit was filmed there.

10) 3yo maidens going one mile restricted to statebreds.

Pelto a homebred, highlight first Lasix. As for his resume or race record he has had one eventful start. Note this Mutkaddim colt broke from the one hole and had an eventful journey. Horses are herd animals and this colt may well have become claustrophobic when trapped inside. In this and similar cases upgrade the impact Lasix may have. Also notice that he finished second to John's Baby and several others come out of that race. I took my red highlighter and highlighted John's Baby in each of those horses pp's. I used my blue highlighter to highlight Ovie who beat a few of these. Handicapping is about comparing horses and this highlighting technique takes no time and will pay for itself quite quickly.

I hope I explained this method clearly enough, although have some doubts. Tommorrow's play may clear up any gray areas. While not a relevation it is solid in theory and has proven itself in practice. BBB

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

do you use glue...and make pretty ponys ..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

do you use glue...and make pretty ponys ..

It sounds like the expense of the materials used in these handicapping exercises exceeds the money this supposed handicapper is willing to risk on his own opinion.

Is there a cliff notes version of the initial post I can purchase?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i love these guys...got 5 diff color pens papers all over just about every horse marked on the form ...they lose and say..man i loved that horse its right here i marked it..lmfao

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i love these guys...got 5 diff color pens papers all over just about every horse marked on the form ...they lose and say..man i loved that horse its right here i marked it..lmfao

Yeah and it's definitely five rattlers when they show you the losing ticket and they have every horse in the race boxed but the winner.

[blackthroatedwind]

I use five different colored pens to seperate different information....

Blue for the initial run through

Red for replay/trip notes

Green for Formulator info

Light Blue for breeding

Purple for final notes

[MisterB]

Don't you throw that stuff away at the Spa?

[SentToStud]

I have evolved FAR beyong using different color pens.

I now apply flourescent paint with a Taco Bell Chilupa wrapper to my Racing Form in my specially designed laboratory.

I then study the results under a black light while speaking on the phone with Mystic Zelda, just in case something isn't crystal clear.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I have evolved FAR beyong using different color pens.

I now apply flourescent paint with a Taco Bell Chilupa wrapper to my Racing Form in my specially designed laboratory.

I then study the results under a black light while speaking on the phone with Mystic Zelda, just in case something isn't crystal clear.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i love these guys...got 5 diff color pens papers all over just about every horse marked on the form ...they lose and say..man i loved that horse its right here i marked it..lmfao

And the best is that when they do that, it's almost always to something completely benign.

They've managed to highlight something like a horse's career earnings.

Say, in a Mcl10000 race at Hawthorne, a few first-time starters and lightly raced horses with no earnings compete against a horse with a career line something like this 29-0-0-4 $14,128

Then they can redboard that one when it finally gets a win at 35-1 after running off the board 10 straight times.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It sounds like the expense of the materials used in these handicapping exercises exceeds the money this supposed handicapper is willing to risk on his own opinion.

i got you whipped, i got one of those giant crayola boxes WITH the sharpener built in!

This makes perfect sense to me.

When a team of coaches, professional or college, say

decides to get down and dirty in terms of preparation for a critical oponent
( A BIG GAME, if you will)

what they do is analyze, to exhaustion, the stats of their oponent.
For example, in BBALL, this would be: #of freethrows, shooting percentage, fastbreak points, points off turnovers, etc.

This is where all the different colored pens come into play : a different color for each stat. Thus, the team scoring more points than it gives up, playing an oponent that scores less and gives up more, for example, WOULD BE A LOCK.

Even though they have scouts out there watching every game, and coaches whose job is solely to break down film, they don't bother with any of this superflous information and STRICTLY rely on the Daily Racing Forum of BBALL (whatever that might be)

Let's face it, once you develop intuitions about your data and can creatively utilize it (better than your competitors), why in the world would you want to actually analyze the thing itself?

Oh, and all the BS about the best coaches being the hardest workers - in particlular, those that watch THE MOST FILM - is just that: BS


Yeah, and the stats guys, not the hands on types, usually make the best coaches.

yeah

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

It seems everyday books, blogs, websites, touts and services are coming up with new methods to predict the outcome of thoroughbred horse races. The newest from Brisnet regarding pace pars, plus and minus, is excellent, yet many others are nebulous in scope and unreliable in practice.

While handicapping will never be a sexy exercise, and the amount of talented 'cappers out there has never been greater, good solid returns can still be achieved for those that correctly interpret the myriad of data available. Certainly winners are selected from a wide variety of methods, but employing the following step by step approach will lead you to picking more winners, whether you are just starting out or a grizzled veteran.

While the DRF is a neccessity, a tool I am lost without is a piece of strong construction paper slightly darker in color than the form. Two red pens, one felt, one fine point, a yellow flourescent highlighter, and other colored (red, blue, orange etc.) highlighters, the type used to highlight textbooks are other useful implements. The paper and pens are certainly optional but will improve your game if used. The paper helps separate the three facets and helps you analyze the horse and its past performances in chronological order. The biggest mistake in handicapping is to work backwords. Always start your analysis at conception, then work to the present, and the construction paper helps you stay focused.

The three facets of proper handicapping are identifying the task, the applicants, and their resumes/past performances. I am going to play the Fairgrounds late pick 4 Friday and will use that sequence to explain. If the handicapping appears primitive and without long study, it is; but please bear in mind I will spend an additional five or six hours of examination, and the purpose of this post is the method. I will post the play and more complete analysis here early tommorrow afternoon.

Leg one, (race 7) Take your construction paper and look only at the race conditions or "task". About eight and a half furlongs, on the turf, for maiden 3yo fillies, under 122 pounds with the rail at 15 feet. Understanding the conditions will give the handicapper some direction in what they are looking for in a potential winner. A horse almost certain to be on the ticket is Jacks New Cat. Using the construction paper look at "the applicant" anotherwords his breeding, sales history and connections.

Note he is bred to go long, probably on grass and brought a decent price at auction while consigned by a reasonably prominent Oklahoma operation. Also Greg Whitehead is his owner, Paul Murphy trains and Gerard Melancon is listed to ride. By all means use your flourescent pen to highlight first Lasix.

Again using your paper check out Jacks' resume ( previous starts and works). Always go as far back as possible and for Jack' he worked a bullet three furlongs in September at Louisiana Downs. He had two 30 day gaps in his works (never a good sign) then was rushed into his debut after a good blowout. As his odds suggested and works confirmed he was off poorly and slow to get his coordination yet finished very well behind a good looking Juddmonte firster. At first glance somewhat penalize his late close due to the leader Mount Glitter blowing a three length lead in the stretch, also use your yellow pen to highlight Mount Glitter (who came back to win on Jan 29th) on both Jacks' pp's and those of number 6 Fiera Diva.

Race eight: The task...3yo's which are nonwinners of two races or which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred. Weight 122. I would use my yellow pen here to highlight non winners of a race "at a mile or over since January 16 allowed two pounds, such a race since then 4 pounds"! Immediately notice Assmussen takes a huge edge in that he qualifies for the weight off, and, gives a leg up to the bug, so in at a featherly 113!

An applicant: Ketchikan: Big sale price, from potent connections, Larry M on the reride. Personally I find the Tomlinson numbers without merit but they are there. Also the logo indicates Triple crown nominated.

The two start resume and work history (bullet at CD in July) certainly points out a colt with a future.

Race Nine: Three different conditions. Entrants are tagged for 50K OR are nonwinners of four races OR are nonwinners of three races other than...maiden, claiming, starter or statebred.

The applicants/entrants include Golden Glen and he is pure race horse. I would highlight in yellow the weight he carries 114 because of Talamo. Also of note although off topic, is his owner Stony Oak farm, located near Paris Ky much of the movie Seabiscuit was filmed there.

10) 3yo maidens going one mile restricted to statebreds.

Pelto a homebred, highlight first Lasix. As for his resume or race record he has had one eventful start. Note this Mutkaddim colt broke from the one hole and had an eventful journey. Horses are herd animals and this colt may well have become claustrophobic when trapped inside. In this and similar cases upgrade the impact Lasix may have. Also notice that he finished second to John's Baby and several others come out of that race. I took my red highlighter and highlighted John's Baby in each of those horses pp's. I used my blue highlighter to highlight Ovie who beat a few of these. Handicapping is about comparing horses and this highlighting technique takes no time and will pay for itself quite quickly.

I hope I explained this method clearly enough, although have some doubts. Tommorrow's play may clear up any gray areas. While not a relevation it is solid in theory and has proven itself in practice. BBB

In your learned opinion, do you think the "strong construction paper" angle will be more critical than the Beyer figures?

[2 Dollar Bill]

The Last Triple I hit was from the Wet ring left from placin my beer down on the DRF.

[ArlJim78]

I'm reminded of some old SNL bit's by Phil Hartman, The Anal Rententive Chef or The Anal Rententive Carpenter.

In that vein, what about the Anal Rententive Handicapper?

First gather the following items;
one racing form
one blue pen
one green pen
two red pens
one felt marker
two yellow highlighters
five pieces off-white sturdy construction paper
one standard ruler
one pair of scissors
one roll scotch tape
one magnifying lens
one bottle Elmers glue
one large cup coffee
three extra strength tylenol

Okay, now we're ready to begin. Oops!, we've dripped coffee on the construction paper, we'll have to throw that one out and start over...
Is that a torn page in the form, where's our tape? and on and on.

I'm a superstitious guy and noticed that I had luck at the OTB last time because I am an exceptionally gifted artist and made this picture and put it in my wallet. I've been hitting winners left and right ever since.

I'll gladly make a personalized one for anyone who is willing to cough up $300.

[2MinsToPost]

Yo, speaking for myself only -

WTF was that BBB? This ain't breaking down the nuclear reactor brother, it's cappin a horse race. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Construction paper, etc, 741 different colored markers etc.. Shiat do you roll to the track in a box van and use a dolley to take everything in that you find necessary to cap a card?

Only bustin your ballsack man.

[AeWingnut]

I absolutely loved that post. My sides are hurting.

I'm really not that good a handicapper. My problem is I win for all the wrong reasons and then wonder why I'm not. Ofcourse I still think I am just unlucky cause I got 1st, 3rd and 4th or the top 3 in the wrong order regardless of odds.

[blackthroatedwind]

Just curious, why were the posts mocking the original post in this thread removed, while the inital one was allowed to remain?

The simple fact is that if a person doesn't even believe his ( or her ) own methods enough to bet actual money based on them, as this poster has offered, then why do they have a right to espouse them and others no right to mock them?

And, quite frankly, I think it was unfair to delete yet another post from board genius Satan's Twin.