AQU Main Opening Day Pick 5!

[ateamstupid]

Next to Saratoga's opening day, this to me is the most refreshing day on the NY racing calendar. We finally get back to nice weather, real dirt and turf racing. And with Keeneland opening on Friday, it's a great time to be a horseplayer.

AQU 1 20k CLM, 40k purse, 1M
Nice four-horse field to start things off. Even so, it's nice to get the one-turn mile races back. #2 Ginny's Grey is clearly the horse to beat after scratches, but I won't get cute in a field this small.

A: 2
B: 1,3,5

AQU 2 20k NYB MCL, 31k purse, 6 1/2 F
Three of the main contenders on paper come out of the 5th race 3/12 and of the three, there's no doubt I want #2 Devilish Grin. #5 Fidelius got a perfect rail trip and had nothing in the lane. He could improve 2nd off the layoff, but he was supposed to run better than that. #6 Aprettysmoothguy broke on top, also got a very good trip, albeit two paths wider, still had very little punch. #2 Devilish Grin broke worst of the three, was hard sent inside of a huge longshot into stalking position, was 4-5 wide every step on the turn and still continued on very nicely behind the perfect-trip winner to be a clear 2nd. For the level, that was a big-time effort on debut. #7 Our Posse is a little dangerous for Castellano's return ride. It's clear that the Beyer figure for his debut race is at least 10 points too high, but he did get caught very wide in that race and raced a little greenly in upper stretch. #9 Mauro and Jesus is an interesting shipper. The colt made no impact in his debut, but raced against way better horses and now ships with intent to capture NY-bred purse. The hot bug rider takes the call and he's bred to be fast, by Pomeroy and a half to Baffle Me. The outside post at this elongated sprint should be beneficial as well.

A: 2
B: 7,9

AQU 3 20k NYB CLM F/M, 47k purse, 6 F
#2 Darn That Trip has two figures that would drown this field, but they both came at Parx and her NY form leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, she was dusted by #6 Bridgetta in two starts last summer. Bridgetta ran well last out, chasing wide against the strong inside speed of Bileaps and Bounds. I prefer her of the two favorites. #4 Broadway Music Gal is a little interesting cutting back and dropping down for Chris Englehart.

A: 6
B: 4
C: 2,3

AQU 4 12.5k CLM F/M, 25k purse, 7 1/2 F
#5 Ocean Boulevard is coming off a really nice race at Parx where she made up a ton of ground rallying on the historically dead rail to win going away. Her last race on the AQU main was a very nice effort too and this kind of distance is right up her alley. #9 C C's Pride showed a surprising amount of speed last time and still ran well going one turn further than she prefers. Now she cuts back and there should be enough stretch-out speed in here to set up her late kick. #6 Shesgotthemoves is a little interesting with a potential first-run trip for Nevin/Cancel, but ultimately I think the top two are more suited to the distance than she is.

A: 5,9
B: 6

AQU 5 12.5 N2L CLM F/M, 24k purse, 1 M
#5 Stage Name is a contender off a big positive rider switch and with some decent AQU main efforts in her back form. #2 Unrepented would easily handle this field if she ran to her 3/7 effort, but she was dreadful last time out. The closest thing I have to a clever opinion is #7 Discreet Malena, switching to Patrick Quick whose barn usually comes alive this time of year. It appears she's been in his care for a while and she has some sharp looking works on the tab. At double-digit odds, I'll take a flier on her.

A: 2
B: 3,5,7

$.50 1,2,3,5/2,7,9/4,6/5,6,9/2,3,5,7 144
$2 2/2/6/5,9/2 4
$.50 2/2/2,3/5,9/2 2

150 total

Good luck!

[knickslions2]

Good luck today!!! Appreciate the writeup!

[ateamstupid]

Sucks pretty hard that I thought enough of her to use Little Miss Lupe as a C but not as a B. This Pick 5 is gonna be enormous.

[ateamstupid]

Going A-B-C-A-A is a rough way to miss a 4600 Pick 5. I briefly thought about moving the 9 in the 2nd up to the A line and could have easily afforded it. In the end, I was too confident in the 2. *sigh*