Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers: Pharoah 105; Honor Code 112

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

By using Rollo logic, Munnings would have won this years triple crown because his son 'dusted' AP in their debuts, and AP is slow because his sire lost a race.

The one thing I agree with Beyer on as it relates to AP besides the correct BSF is that the acid test will come against Older and IF he wins BCC all this conjecture on his speed and quality will rinse away.

IC. not all 105's are equal save the number

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

This is one of the problems with the Triple Crown hoopla, and flavor-of-the-months in general, as it dismisses other great champions we witnessed. How quickly the Zenyatta circus erased the impact of Azeri on the racing landscape. That Harlem Globetrotter-like stalwart also took quite a bit of shine off the filly you just mentioned, Rachel Alexandra.

A quick review of Rachel Alexandra highlights one of the all time great campaigns not only in terms of accomplishment, but in terms of pace, final time, and field quality.

While we are inundated with quasi-physiological assessments of American Pharoah's thoracic-pelvic limb coupling and whispers of speed figure conspiracy theories, no such mumbo jumbo is needed when analyzing Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign.

Facile wins in the midwest in preps for the bigger dances parallel American Pharoah's romps at Oaklawn. The Kentucky Oaks was one for the ages, stalking Gabby's Golden Gal, from the same crew that brought you Firing Line and likewise coming off a blowout at Sunland Park, Rachel Alexandra disposed of her as she pleased and won by 20. Gabby's Golden Gal won a Grade 1 in her next start, and did so again at 4.

The Preakness saw RA lock horns with Big Drama, a subsequent BC Sprint winner and champion sprinter, then draw off and hold sway. Ironically, American Pharoah's sire, Pioneerof The Nile was seen with brief speed before pack-peddling and easing through the stretch---sound like Materiality to anyone? Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile's Santa Anita wins in the winter preps should be dismissed too, based on this one run. By the way, he never ran again.

The Mother Goose against fillies seems like a joke, with just 3 horses, but Flashing would go on to win two Grade 1s in the summer and Malibu Prayer won a Grade 1 at 4, so quality was not in question. Certainly the pace that was set was blazing. 1:08+ for 6f. RA won by nearly 20 again, in a stakes record.

They took it to her in the Haskell. A sloppy track. Munnings (sire of Om, who dusted American Pharoah first time out), fresh off huge sprint wins against both fellow 3yos and older horses engages RA immediately while Kent Desormeaux decides to put the pressure early from the inside down the backstretch to try and crack her facade. She won by 6.

Visually and time-wise, the Woodward was a letdown, but nevertheless she won and defeating older males in one of the prestige events on calendar was the only thing that could put a worthy cap on what she had done earlier in the year.

That she showed only flashes of the same brilliance at 4 is no matter. In 5 races at 3 she was tested in all ways by all types and could not be beaten.

American Pharoah could not be beaten, either, and so was able to achieve a rare feat, but the kitchen sink was hardly thrown at him...unless 2 for 9 Frosted and 2 for 7 Firing Line are worthy substitutes for all the things Rachel Alexandra overcame.

Her Martha Washington at OP is breathtaking, Was at Haskell in paddock with her and she was such a grand filly. I am not sure what her stride measured but it looked like she was in air forever when she ran?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Funny.

You've been the one bringing the little digressions to the table.

Nothing new there at all.

At this point, I'd take Smooth Operator for intelligence and focus.

Of course I brought the digressions in, because I am actually posting content on this thread, rather than "look at me" strutting and feigned vexation about how it is possible that all details regarding American Pharoah's Triple Crown performances are not afforded otherworldly status simply because he won all 3 races.

That you would focus on those coincidental tidbits rather than the main thrust of the post shows you have little to offer in terms of response. This goes along with your original posts, which either disparage other people for holding a contrary opinion, or spew vague fluff about being too inarticulate to explain why the Brooklyn race shouldn't be compared to the Belmont Stakes, or ridiculous meaningless drivel about American Pharoah's stride.

Carry on.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Her Martha Washington at OP is breathtaking, Was at Haskell in paddock with her and she was such a grand filly. I am not sure what her stride measured but it looked like she was in air forever when she ran?

No no no. Being in the air is bad.

Or so I read elsewhere.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

As for the Beyer fig I agree its rock solid and guessed it the night before. Beyer has not been impressed with AP's races, he has been impressed with accomplishments. Kind of sounds like the ole Cigar rhetoric you know he wins but he never wins running fast. I think if Materialty would have won by a nose against AP or Frosted and either of those 2 were 3rd 5 .5 lengths back Beyer would have used 108/09 because it would have given more credence to the Florida Derby Fig. To me the fig is just about as relevant as my opinion on who would have won a hypothetical Preakness between AP and Rachel.

I'm not sure why you are hung up on the Florida Derby figure as if it is out of line. Does it matter? Upstart and Materiality where non-factors in their classic starts, that doesn't mean the figure for one race is bad. Both ran far below expectations and in fact have running lines that suggests something physically is amiss.

For years now, people have commented on certain big-figure horses at Gulfstream turning back into "pumpkins" outside it's friendly confines. Someone would have to go back and look closer at the average speed figures down there versus those by the same horses at other racetracks to perhaps identify a trend of this happening.

An obvious explanation for this is the permissive medication rules in Florida, which actually allows horses to be treated not only with lasix, but also with a potent fast-acting anti-inflammatory drug on raceday. It would be interesting to see what percentage of starters are treated with this drug.

Finally, it can't be at all shocking to think that figure wise, the Belmont Stakes tends to get lower figures than other races. It's a 12 furlong race. Just because a horse can run a 112 BSF for 9f, doesn't mean it will run a similar figure at 12f.

See Coach Inge's numbers...if you think they are relevant.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Of course I brought the digressions in, because I am actually posting content on this thread, rather than "look at me" strutting and feigned vexation about how it is possible that all details regarding American Pharoah's Triple Crown performances are not afforded otherworldly status simply because he won all 3 races.

That you would focus on those coincidental tidbits rather than the main thrust of the post shows you have little to offer in terms of response. This goes along with your original posts, which either disparage other people for holding a contrary opinion, or spew vague fluff about being too inarticulate to explain why the Brooklyn race shouldn't be compared to the Belmont Stakes, or ridiculous meaningless drivel about American Pharoah's stride.

Carry on.

Your content is nonsensical and irrelevant to the discussion at hand. That I went for your obvious attempt to bait me was intentional. I'll repeat, you've said nothing useful at all, despite your self projecting that onto me.

I have not strutted about being right, not even once. Nor have you admitted to being wrong.

I've also been realistic about Pharoah's overall ability. Show me where I've come close to calling him the best ever, one of the all time greats, etc. You won't, because you can't, because it doesn't exist from me.

Prior to you and a couple of others disparaging my posts, I never disparaged anyones opinions. I did question why so many people loved Upstart so much and that I thought he was extremely overrated, but I even backtracked a little on that once I watched his entire body of work in one sitting. I've at least been honest and admitted when I may have had an unfair opinion.

I have not gloated, nor have I done any I told you so's. I guarantee however had AP lost, I'd be buried in sewage by a small minded cretin such as yourself.

You are right that I put forth a poor effort in trying to explain why I believe the Brooklyn is not relevant, but again, I at least admit to my deficiencies.

Where the hell was your opinion on the triple crown beforehand? Maybe lost in some Rachel Alexandra fantasy about her being an all time great??

Perhaps my musings on AP's stride are nonsensical bits of drivel, but oddly, my observations about such things are right a lot more frequently than wrong.

You on other hand, you hide behind a computer screen sniping at people and offer nothing worth reading.

Maybe it's possible that you realize it's smarter to keep your opinions to yourself, because you don't want the inane criticism that you are so joyous about dishing out.

I feel badly for you.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No no no. Being in the air is bad.

Or so I read elsewhere.

I'll try to explain this to you, despite the obviousness of your trolling.

A horse, or any animal for that matter, accelerates when they push off the ground. The force that drives a horse forward comes from the legs pushing off the surface of the track.

When an animal is completely off the ground, they are no longer accelerating and in fact, are decelerating. Do you really believe that if a horse stayed in the air for five seconds on each stride, they'd be going even faster?

It's kind of like a batter in baseball trying to dive into first base to beat out the throw. They actually make it easier to be out by launching into the air and slowing down.

I can prove this to you mathematically (via simple physics) if you like, but I know you'll just reject it because Rachel Alexandra beat a sprinter.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'm not sure why you are hung up on the Florida Derby figure as if it is out of line. Does it matter? Upstart and Materiality where non-factors in their classic starts, that doesn't mean the figure for one race is bad. Both ran far below expectations and in fact have running lines that suggests something physically is amiss.

For years now, people have commented on certain big-figure horses at Gulfstream turning back into "pumpkins" outside it's friendly confines. Someone would have to go back and look closer at the average speed figures down there versus those by the same horses at other racetracks to perhaps identify a trend of this happening.

An obvious explanation for this is the permissive medication rules in Florida, which actually allows horses to be treated not only with lasix, but also with a potent fast-acting anti-inflammatory drug on raceday. It would be interesting to see what percentage of starters are treated with this drug.

Finally, it can't be at all shocking to think that figure wise, the Belmont Stakes tends to get lower figures than other races. It's a 12 furlong race. Just because a horse can run a 112 BSF for 9f, doesn't mean it will run a similar figure at 12f.

See Coach Inge's numbers...if you think they are relevant.

The fig is accurate for the Florida derby but frequently "makers" revisit numbers and adjust them accordingly. Seems to me this one needs adjusting. Now if you subscribe to GP horses will always run faster because of more permissive medication on race day then it certainly enhances the BIG Fig Florida Derby rhetoric. I think we have seen plenty of GP runners not be able to replicate their GP form and that hopefully is abated soon with some more stringent testing practices in 2016? Who knows?

[letswastemoney]

Nine furlong speed figures have little to do with 12 furlongs!

That's like writing a six furlong champion is absolutely going to duplicate their numbers at nine furlongs.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'll try to explain this to you, despite the obviousness of your trolling.

A horse, or any animal for that matter, accelerates when they push off the ground. The force that drives a horse forward comes from the legs pushing off the surface of the track.

When an animal is completely off the ground, they are no longer accelerating and in fact, are decelerating. Do you really believe that if a horse stayed in the air for five seconds on each stride, they'd be going even faster?

It's kind of like a batter in baseball trying to dive into first base to beat out the throw. They actually make it easier to be out by launching into the air and slowing down.

I can prove this to you mathematically (via simple physics) if you like, but I know you'll just reject it because Rachel Alexandra beat a sprinter.

So you are saying the shorter the stride the more advantageous for developing constant speed? The problem with the math here is that while they are in air they aren't spending energy and are covering more ground. IF they had gas tanks that didn't deplete this would be fine but they do. As such the longer the stride to cover the most distance, typically enhances a horses ability to run faster, because the next push is done with the potential for more force. If you aren't exhausting your energy you can use it further up the track to push harder again. This seems to be why a longer stride is more favorable.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Perhaps my musings on AP's stride are nonsensical bits of drivel, but oddly, my observations about such things are right a lot more frequently than wrong.


I feel badly for you.

Honestly how do you really no if you are more right then wrong if you dont bet?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So you are saying the shorter the stride the more advantageous for developing constant speed? The problem with the math here is that while they are in air they aren't spending energy and are covering more ground. IF they had gas tanks that didn't deplete this would be fine but they do. As such the longer the stride to cover the most distance, typically enhances a horses ability to run faster, because the next push is done with the potential for more force. If you aren't exhausting your energy you can use it further up the track to push harder again. This seems to be why a longer stride is more favorable.

No, I am not saying that at all.

I'm saying the longer a horse has all four feet/hooves in the air, the more time that horse is spending slowing down.

I was responding to this point earlier (not to Trollo, but before him) that it's a fallacy to credit his running ability to him being in the air longer than other horses.

His biomechanical efficiency is where he gets his biggest advantage. It's the primary reason why I've felt that he would not have endurance issues, despite the female side of his pedigree.

He wastes almost no energy at all, relative to how other horses move.

A really good example of what I mean, though not perfect, can be seen immediately after one of his recent workouts.

When he's finished his work, you can see how he's moving with a very easy trot, almost like he's just prancing, while the stable pony has to exert himself to just keep up with the easiest of movements that AP is doing.

Also watch how almost perfectly flat his spine is during his workout. There is virtually no up and down (vertical) motion with the length of his back as he's running. Most other horses have very noticeable movement vertically, which is wasted energy.

He also has no visible defects in his forward movements. No leg paddling, he runs straight, etc..

These things are what you get as you get closer to perfect conformation. It is why conformation is so important, it translates into how good a mover a horse will be, among other things.

You can't really account for their internal engine though by what I'm saying. Secretariat, as you surely know, had a freakishly large heart, which I have no way of knowing anything about.

Save your breath Trollo.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Honestly how do you really no if you are more right then wrong if you dont bet?

I'm basing that statement on the opinions I post here, or discuss with people outside of here (mostly here), and whether or not they come true or not.

I'm absolutely the worst horse better in history.

If there is a way to bet a race wrong, I will.

I once had a streak one summer in the 80's where I had something like 36 or 38 straight win bets hit the board, but all lose. You'd think I'd have figured out during that streak how to capitalize on that, but nope, never happened.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Your content is nonsensical and irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

Weird, because during all your miffed prancing and preening, Freddy (you know, person I was responding to) and I have been holding a conversation.

That I went for your obvious attempt to bait me was intentional.

You take yourself too seriously. Do you actually think those were aimed at you? The fact that Rachel Alexandra ran against Munnings and Pioneerof The Nile is mere coincidence. I simply pointed it out.

You've pre-empted for yourself the presidency of the American Pharoah fanboy club. I hope you don't follow in the footsteps of your Selena counterpart.

I'll repeat, you've said nothing useful at all, despite your self projecting that onto me.

Relevant to the Proceedings of the 1st Annual Indian Charlie as Lord Fanboy of the American Pharoah Fan Club? I guess not.

I've also been realistic about Pharoah's overall ability. Show me where I've come close to calling him the best ever, one of the all time greats, etc. You won't, because you can't, because it doesn't exist from me.

None of that means you haven't expressed disappointment, dare I say outrage, that American Pharoah hasn't earned higher speed figures.

Prior to you and a couple of others disparaging my posts, I never disparaged anyones opinions. I did question why so many people loved Upstart so much and that I thought he was extremely overrated, but I even backtracked a little on that once I watched his entire body of work in one sitting. I've at least been honest and admitted when I may have had an unfair opinion.

Translation:

I didn't do it! Well...just that one time...and that other... hey, I said I was sorry!

I have not gloated, nor have I done any I told you so's. I guarantee however had AP lost, I'd be buried in sewage by a small minded cretin such as yourself.

Yeah, we were all on the edge of our seats. Not to see if there would be a Triple Crown winner finally after nearly 4 decades...but whether or not Indian Charlie would have to eat crow...

An why exactly would we bury you, not indulge your ridiculous ego a little further? To hear you tell it, you've been nothing but critical of AP's abilities and never suggested he was an all-time great.

Where the hell was your opinion on the triple crown beforehand?

Somewhere in there. I think I said that American Pharoah's best chance to win was to go wire-to-wire and that Materiality would be a factor.

One out of two ain't bad.

Perhaps my musings on AP's stride are nonsensical bits of drivel, but oddly, my observations about such things are right a lot more frequently than wrong.

More fluff. Perhaps a lint trap is in order.

You on other hand, you hide behind a computer screen sniping at people and offer nothing worth reading.

Yet it's worth responding to. Interesting.

I feel badly for you.

You take on too much responsibility for things that have nothing to do with you.

Take a rest. Please.

[Kasept]

Jerry Brown brought up a germane additional point to the figure (vis a vis Brooklyn/Belmont) which is that Coach Inge carried 117 to Pharoah's 126. Adjusting for weight, the suggested Beyer would be a 107.

[Kasept]

Final Thoro-Graph numbers out.. https://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/index.php?utid=main

105 Beyer interpretation of Belmont gets virtually identical concurrence from TG with a -0.5 (negative half point)..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Beyer later in the article cautions to reserve judgment on American Pharoah until his career is complete. Seeing how he is certain to retire at the end of the year, hopefully he doesn't continue to emulate Seattle Slew, who bombed in an tailored "appearance" race at Hollywood Park. (Secretariat also re-appeared post-TC in a "groomed" race--the Arlington Invitational). Seattle Slew seems to have had similar criticisms dogging his career, but at 4 he was afforded a huge opportunity to shut the naysayers down when he faced fellow Triple Crown winner Affirmed in the Marlboro Cup and delivered a knockout performance (not that beating a tired 3yo was unexpected). He followed it up with huge efforts in the important fall races at Belmont. Add in his near death experience during the previous winter and you have some nice elements to create a legend.

As for American Pharoah, a run at the Haskell-Travers double would be a feat no modern day TC ever accomplished. Affirmed won the Travers outright, but sawed off Alydar entering the far turn and was disqualified. As he won't be seen at 4, it will be nice to see the horse avoid appearance-fee races (although Monmouth tends to oblige) and focus on the prestige events this summer and fall.

Personally, I would love to see him attempt Easy Goer's late season campaign (i.e., Whitney, Travers, Woodward, JCGC), but I'm not sure if its even possible schedule-wise nowadays.

it's too bad that slew's owners completely ignored billy turner regarding that cali race. he told them the horse was tired, to give him a break.
he was right.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Final Thoro-Graph numbers out.. https://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/index.php?utid=main

105 Beyer interpretation of Belmont gets virtually identical concurrence from TG with a -0.5 (negative half point)..

I thought davidowitz offered an excellent explanation of why any fig for this race is dubious and an sort of a non starter

[MLC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it's too bad that slew's owners completely ignored billy turner regarding that cali race. he told them the horse was tired, to give him a break.
he was right.

And then they fired him, if my memory is correct.