Xpressbet Derby Wagering Guide now available; Updates start Tues.

[Kasept]

Download: http://xpressbet.com/bet-the-kentucky-derby

My entry. Updates begin Tursday online..

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Download: http://xpressbet.com/bet-the-kentucky-derby

My entry. Updates begin Tursday online..

Great minds like you and I don't always think alike. We have 8 different horses between our top 8.
Love the read though.

[tjfla]

So are u gonna keep running the site from your private island if u hit? That Super might make u take some time off

Question tho- How Fast do u think they will go? From looks of picks 1:10-1:11 or is that where the value is?

Again thanks for all u do especially this time of year!!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Great minds like you and I don't always think alike. We have 8 different horses between our top 8. Love the read though.

Joe.

There's going to be a lot of that in this Derby on exactly the scenario I suggest: picking a pace and choosing horses under its' guidelines. If you take 2 late runners, it could be Mo Tom and Brody's Cause as easily as Creator and Suddenbreakingnews. If you want near lead and mid-pack types it can be Nyquist and Mor Spirit or Outwork and Exaggerator or Gun Runner and Destin. That's what makes this such an interesting wagering opportunity.

What I wanted to do with the analysis was give readers an approach. The horses are really secondary. I'd be as comfortable with Outwork, Mor Spirit, Shagaf, Trojan Nation as the 4 price players. Plug in your own.. Everyone knows who the major players are. Take 4-6 of the offbeat players, play them in an attempt at a huge score (EX & TRI boxes or keys if you feel strongly about a particular price) as well as hooking them up with the obvious (backwheeled under the faves).

I think you play this particular Derby for a chaotic result. Going to be a fun week! G/L..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tjfla

So are u gonna keep running the site from your private island if u hit? That Super might make u take some time off

Question tho- How Fast do u think they will go? From looks of picks 1:10-1:11 or is that where the value is?

Again thanks for all u do especially this time of year!!!

Depending on the draw, I'm thinking they go a bit faster than the anticipated moderate tempo being pretty widely suggested.. 23.1, 47.0, 1:10.3? Some seem to be taking a tack where Danzing Candy is going to wire. I get the thinking, but a little added pace pressure usually emerges, typically from horses that end up drawn inside that have to be used early for position and suddenly there's 3-5 grappling into the turn. Horses blood gets up and they prompt each other.

Basically hoping the stalkers pounce on the speed and that things went fast enough to get Creator/Suddenbreakingnews on to the bottom rungs. (Also think Creator may be a little closer to midpack here and My Man Sam absolutely closer than the Blue Grass.) If you expect a collapse, which of the 8-9 late runners do you anoint? Or toss?

As we've been discussing already this week, the potential scenarios are eye-crossing..

Appreciate the kind words about the efforts. This week flew by and was wildly enjoyable given the usual Derby backdrop and added monumental inductees to the Hall. 15 hours of analysis to come yet..

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Depending on the draw, I'm thinking they go a bit faster than the anticipated moderate tempo being pretty widely suggested.. 23.1, 47.0, 1:10.3? Some seem to be taking a tack where Danzing Candy is going to wire. I get the thinking, but a little added pace pressure usually emerges, typically from horses that end up drawn inside that have to be used early for position and suddenly there's 3-5 grappling into the turn. Horses blood gets up and they prompt each other.

Basically hoping the stalkers pounce on the speed and that things went fast enough to get Creator/Suddenbreakingnews on to the bottom rungs. (Also think Creator may be a little closer to midpack here and My Man Sam absolutely closer than the Blue Grass.) If you expect a collapse, which of the 8-9 late runners do you anoint? Or toss?

As we've been discussing already this week, the potential scenarios are eye-crossing..

Appreciate the kind words about the efforts. This week flew by and was wildly enjoyable given the usual Derby backdrop and added monumental inductees to the Hall. 15 hours of analysis to come yet..

Gotcha ya I look more for Exaggerator(likely little closer to mid pack)/Brody's Cause/SBN as the closers I like which is why I asked. Wasn't sure if u were picking for the value or if u liked those ones better?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Joe.

There's going to be a lot of that in this Derby on exactly the scenario I suggest: picking a pace and choosing horses under its' guidelines. If you take 2 late runners, it could be Mo Tom and Brody's Cause as easily as Creator and Suddenbreakingnews. If you want near lead and mid-pack types it can be Nyquist and Mor Spirit or Outwork and Exaggerator or Gun Runner and Destin. That's what makes this such an interesting wagering opportunity.

What I wanted to do with the analysis was give readers an approach. The horses are really secondary. I'd be as comfortable with Outwork, Mor Spirit, Shagaf, Trojan Nation as the 4 price players. Plug in your own.. Everyone knows who the major players are. Take 4-6 of the offbeat players, play them in an attempt at a huge score (EX & TRI boxes or keys if you feel strongly about a particular price) as well as hooking them up with the obvious (backwheeled under the faves).

I think you play this particular Derby for a chaotic result. Going to be a fun week! G/L..

I agree with your chaotic result thought. I see it one of two ways: (1) Nyquist wins easily, because he's simply better than these, or (2) he doesn't want to 10F or doesn't run his race and there's mass chaos. I'm playing for #2.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with your chaotic result thought. I see it one of two ways: (1) Nyquist wins easily, because he's simply better than these, or (2) he doesn't want to 10F or doesn't run his race and there's mass chaos. I'm playing for #2.

His mid 90 beyer while drifting out makes him better? He is slow.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

His mid 90 beyer while drifting out makes him better? He is slow.

I too am against him at the favorite's price, but be careful with that line of thinking and don't be too dismissive of Nyquist when structuring all your plays.

As Gary Young said yesterday, 'He's been fast enough to beat every horse that's been lined up against him'.

An exacta or tri saver with your tabs and Nyquist (or Exaggerator) is a modest insurance policy.

[57rick]

Churchill is not listed on XB. Com. I called and they said it would be available on Derby Day only. Anyone know if this is correct? Thanks in advance.
Rick

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 57rick

Churchill is not listed on XB. Com. I called and they said it would be available on Derby Day only. Anyone know if this is correct? Thanks in advance. Rick

Johnny D says as of this week, he is unaware of any issue between normal CD racing and Xpressbet.

Possible that DRF Bets customers may have an issue which stems from a dispute last Derby.

[57rick]

Thank you Steve!

[57rick]

Called DRF and they switched me over to Xpressbet.
Good to go!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

His mid 90 beyer while drifting out makes him better? He is slow.

Well they're all slow. And Beyer figures are useless these days. I'll put 20% of my money through him as insurance but I'm against for the most part.