8/26: Saratoga ~ Day 31 (NY Showcase; 8/9-ON, 2/4/6/11-OFF)

[Kasept]

Note that surprisingly persistent thunderstorms have been through the area into the morning. Ending now (6a), but likely will have main track muddy to start the day.. Thursday a difficult afternoon at the races starting with Champion chaser Bob Le Beau strangely fracturing a hind pastern while running on the flat and Ring of Truth clipping heels and falling hard in the nightcap. Both were euthanized and are being appropriately appreciated. For Elizabeth Voss, the loss of Bob Le Beau made enjoying Portrade's G1 win impossible and brought back the anguish of Makari's fatal fall two years ago in the Cup. This is a game that's frequently unfair and regularly unforgiving..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: 3rd Funny Side-NY, 2yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Serious state bred juveniles here. Bobby On Fleek beat open MDN's and rated kindly before drawing off in debut meriting slight edge over equally impressive Syndergaard..

Most Likely: #4 Bobby On Fleek 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Syndergaard 6-5 WON ($3.40)


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 About That Base 4-1 WON ($7.10)
Next Best: #4 Super Mama 2-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Forever Poppi 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Filly Madison 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #15 Betterthanadequate 12-1 8th


3rd: NY-O/CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 One Cats Chance 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Deuces High 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Cause I'm Alex 7-2 WON ($17.20)
Super Add: #7 Kate Is a Ten 5-1 4th


4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Cahirciveen WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #1 Cashconsiderations 3rd


5th: 39th Albany-NY, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

NY Derby winner Hit It Once More is obviously the horse to beat, but stablemate Jet Black is a hard-trying colt that may prove tough to catch here under front-end whiz Jose Ortiz. His opening day effort in the first race of the Spa season, which came at this trip, occured before anyone could know the inside was dead. Only runner involved that has covered 9f, has worked sharply towards this assignment and may float up from the 3-1 ML..

Best Value: #3 Jet Black 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Hit It Once More 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Extinct Charm 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Eden Ridge 10-1 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
2: 4-11 (A), 7-8-15 (B), - (C)
3: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)
4: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
5: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 2-4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-5 (1,5/11/5/3,4,5,6,7,9/6) Paid $212.00


P4 Grid:

2: 4-11 (A), 7-8-15 (B), - (C)
3: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)
4: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
5: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 2-4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x2x3 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (11/5/3,4,5,6,7,9/6) Paid $106.87


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 FOLLOW THE SIGNS 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Twisted Tom 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 The Great Samurai 8-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Right Ben 12-1 8th


7th: 3rd Seeking the Ante-NY, 2yo-F, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Wilburnmoney 4-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Twist 'n Shout 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Iron Mizz 5-2 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #4 Code Red 9-2 2nd


8th: 37th Yaddo-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Fourstar Crook 7-2 WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #7 The Tea Cups 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Neck of the Moon 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Selenite 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Flipcup 8-1 2nd


9th: 37th West Point-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Kharafa 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Tapitation 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 King Kreesa 7-2 WON ($8.30)
Super Add: #1 Offering Plan 5-2 3rd


10th: 3rd Fleet Indian-NY, 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Frosty Margarita 9-2 -
Next Best: #5 Super Surprise 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #4 Super Allison 5-1 -
Super Add: #2 Highway Star 8-1 3rd


11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #15 Gucci Factor 9th
Best Value: #14 Investigator 5th
Exotics Use: #2 D' Eloquent 8th
Super Add: #6 Arthur Avenue 3rd


P4 Grid:

8: 7-13 (A), 9-10 (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-4-5 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
11: 14-15 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = $32 ($16 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Note that surprisingly persistent thunderstorms have been through the area into the morning. Ending now (6a), but likely will have main track muddy to start the day..

Are we more than likely Off Turf today?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Are we more than likely Off Turf today?

Doubt they take the stakes (8-9) off. 2-4-6-11 are the other considerations. Rails are up anyway to come down for tomorrow. I'll get answer soon..

[Kasept]

@Steve_Byk: Saratoga Race Course rec'd 1/2" of rain overnight thru this hour. Decisions pending on turf races. (Stakes 8th/9th; MSW's 2nd/4th/6th/11th).

[Alabama Stakes]

A measly half inch of rain takes 4 races off the turf ?

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[atolunch]

Please double check the 8th, Fourstar Crook is the #13, not the #11 as listed.

Thanks as always for the time and insights and best of luck today.

Here's to a HUGE weekend.