3/31-4/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Pool 4

[Dunbar]

(from https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload..._4_roster..pdf )

Ky. Derby Futures Pool 4 odds

1 Always Dreaming Todd Pletcher 50-1
2 Battalion Runner Todd Pletcher 30-1
3 Battle of Midway* Jerry Hollendorfer 50-1
4 Classic Empire Mark Casse 12-1
5 Cloud Computing* Chad Brown 15-1
6 El Areeb Cal Lynch 30-1

7 Girvin* Joe Sharp 30-1
8 Gormley John Shirreffs 20-1
9 Guest Suite (g) Neil Howard 50-1
10 Gunnevera Antonio Sano 6-1
11 Iliad (r) Doug O’Neill 15-1
12 Irish War Cry Graham Motion 15-1

13 J Boys Echo* Dale Romans 10-1
14 Malagacy Todd Pletcher 30-1
15 McCraken Ian Wilkes 6-1
16 Mo Town Tony Dutrow 50-1
17 One Liner Todd Pletcher 10-1
18 Practical Joke Chad Brown 12-1

19 Reach the World* Bob Baffert 50-1
20 State of Honor Mark Casse 50-1
21 Tapwrit Todd Pletcher 10-1
22 Thunder Snow (Ire)* Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
23 Untrapped* Steve Asmussen 50-1
24 Mutuel Field (All Others) 10-1

Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia

* - new wagering interest in KDFW Pool 4; (g) – gelding (r)- ridgling



This list shows the closing odds in the 3 previous pools, too. (From DRF.com)

No. Horse Trainer P4 M/L P3 odds P2 odds P1 odds

1. Always Dreaming T. Pletcher 50-1 42-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
2. Batallion Runner T. Pletcher 30-1 34-1 22-1 6-5(f)
3. Battle of Midway J. Hollendorfer 50-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
4. Classic Empire M. Casse 12-1 11-1 5-1 6-1
5. Cloud Computing C. Brown 15-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
6. El Areeb C. Lynch 30-1 20-1 32-1 6-5(f)

7. Girvin J. Sharp 30-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
8. Gormley J. Shirreffs 20-1 18-1 19-1 37-1
9. Guest Suite N. Howard 50-1 60-1 31-1 6-5(f)
10. Gunnevera A. Sano 6-1 22-1 24-1 22-1
11. Iliad D. O’Neill 15-1 24-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
12. Irish War Cry G. Motion 15-1 7-1 26-1 26-1

13. J Boys Echo D. Romans 10-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
14. Malagacy T. Pletcher 30-1 53-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
15. McCraken I. Wilkes 6-1 6-1 9-1 12-1
16. Mo Town A. Dutrow 50-1 27-1 15-1 12-1
17. One Liner T. Pletcher 10-1 12-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
18. Practical Joke C. Brown 12-1 19-1 20-1 26-1

19. Reach the World B. Baffert 50-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
20. State of Honor M. Casse 50-1 198-1 175-1 6-5(f)
21. Tapwrit T. Pletcher 10-1 22-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
22. Thunder Snow S. bin Suroor 15-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
23. Untrapped S. Asmussen 50-1 5-1(f) 105-1 6-5(f)
24. Mutuel field n/a 10-1 5-1 5-2 6-5

(f)-mutuel field entry

[lemoncrush]

Is it odd that they didn't include Hence, who is locked into the Derby with his win at Sunland?
I realize it's not easy picking the 23 individual interests, but I would have included him over Untrapped, Reach the World, State of Honor and Mo Town.

[tanner12oz]

Nothing is jumping out at me in any way on this board

[taxicab]

The field could be a 10 horse entry off of board 4.
Anywhere near the 10-1 line might be worth it.

[Dunbar]

Link to "live" odds: ("live" in quotes because for the last 2 future pools, odds were updated erratically in the last hour of betting.)

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-4

[Kasept]

RECAP: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...ol_4_Recap.pdf

[taxicab]

I took the field @ 11-1,figuring all kind of weird things are happening this year.
A little madness this weekend helps the bet.
It would be kind of like having the P-4 going to multiple horses for $1200 off of a $100 ticket.
I'll probably settle on some oddball horse for my Derby selection/wager anyway.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I took the field @ 11-1,figuring all kind of weird things are happening this year.
A little madness this weekend helps the bet.
It would be kind of like having the P-4 going to multiple horses for $1200 off of a $100 ticket.

I think it was a good bet. I didn't take it because I already have substantial All Others bets from Pools 2 and 3.

With 11-1, you only need an 8.5% chance to win. There are a lot of scenarios where you'd have more than an 8.5% chance to win. Six honest 40-1 shots would do it handily.