8/26: Saratoga (148th Travers Day)

[Kasept]

Cool, glorious day on tap in Upstate New York for a fascinating Travers and terrific undercard. Good number of spots to take price shots today and even if you lean toward the more likely players, the exotics should provide a steady supply of fireworks.. Enjoy Travers Day!


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

All except Mejia's #3 Belle Tapisserie are firsters, so worktab and pedigree your only roadmap..

Most Likely: #2 Hazit 3-1: Pletcher/Eclipse colt o/o fast early MSW mare Rumor.. WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #8 Good Magic 5-2: $1MM Curlin for Brown, e5, Stonestreet.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 High North 6-1: Midnight Lute o/o quick SW Spacy Tracy for Cox & John Ed Anthony.. 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Road to Meath 7-2: 'Other' Chad Brown a Quality Road for The Warrens.. 3rd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Expect a moderate pace in this odd assemblage of horseflesh where no order of finish would be a shock. Kabang (15-1), $425k as a yearling to Mrs. Weber, showed promise early before finding himself for Trombetta as a mature gelding. Will need to work a trip, but nice price key whose Starter ALW win earlier in the meet as good as anything from the rest of this cast. Brown's Focus Group broke through in last. Delacour, (who looks poised for a big day), sends forward-going Surprise Twist. Mott's Richmond Street fits well. Pletcher's Son of a Saint out of a modest Dynaformer mare and could take to turf..

Best Value: #5 Kabang 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Surprise Twist 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Richmond Street 6-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Focus Group 3-1 8th


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

The danger zone in the early P4/P5 with 7 coming in with experience and 3 firsters from Weaver, Lerman & Motion..

Best Value: #5 He Takes Charge 12-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Another 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Chirping 12-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Neepawa 5-2 6th


4th: Opt CLM/C, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Entertaining lineup for this conditional ALW dash which boasts 43 wins among 9 horses for nearly $3,000,000. There looks to be enough pace to keep this honest with typical Navarro sprint type Shaft of Light the likely leader and several presser/stalkers around to prompt. Needed Threefiveindia last time and willing to try again with a behind-the-leaders style fitting this race flow well. Angry Moon probably needs the lead to win, but note that Englehart pulled same stunt a year ago, prepping in turf sprint 8/18/16 before acing similarly conditioned event 9/4/16. Candid Desire ideal candidate to nab bottom share with closing kick..

Best Value: #5 Angry Moon 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Threefiveindia 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Shaft of Light 9-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Candid Desire 20-1 3rd


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Pace looks authentic making this completely open to any and all. Use prices liberally because no one can be eliminated easily..

Best Value: #2 Sycamore Lane 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ray's the Bar 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Profiteer 15-1 WON ($19.20)
Super Add: #7 Tathqeef 6-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 2-8 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
2: 3-5 (A), 7-9-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
3: 2-5-9 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
4: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-6-8-9 (C)
5: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x2x2 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

2: 3-5 (A), 7-9-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
3: 2-5-9 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
4: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), 3-8-9 (C)
5: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: 70th Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD ~ No Show Wagering)

Not impossible for Forever Unbridled to run down Songbird, but the Fox Hill filly has a big advantage setting the fractions up front..

Most Likely: #2 Songbird 2-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Forever Unbridled 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Eskenformoney 12-1 3rd


7th: 39th Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (All Stakes P6, P3, DD)

First of 3 straight 7f G1's and a seriously well-matched group. Pace a bit of question mark as there isn't a single wire winner among these runners. Success over this surface a plus and Paulassilverlining was remarkable again winning the Honorable Miss. A 7th panel hasn't been an issue for her. Carina Mia's win earlier in the meet bodes well for her 2nd chance in this event after last year's disappointment as favorite. By the Moon always gives a square account of herself. Birdatthewire (Blinkers On) and Highway Star (Turning Back) both have some appeal with off the pace styles though Proctor 0/6 adding the hood in graded stakes..

Most Likely: #5 Carina Mia 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Paulassilverlining 2-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Birdatthewire 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Highway Star 10-1 2nd


8th: 33rd Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed all week, former King's Bishop has all the usual style elements with Crown Trail turnback types (Practical Joke, Wild Shot, No Dozing, Takaful) versus established one turners (American Anthem, Coal Front). Was dismissive of Ann Arbor Eddie (15-1) on first glance Wednesday night, but after the efforts of light fig NY-bred California invaders in Friday's Seeking the Ante, I'm a bit more interested. American Anthem remains the horse to beat and anything close to Woody Stephens effort on Belmont Day swamps these..

Most Likely: #9 American Anthem 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Ann Arbor Eddie 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Coal Front 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Practical Joke 5-2 WON ($6.00)


9th: 38th Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Billed as Drefong v. Mind Your Biscuits, but a few here are well in range, especially Diving Rod and Awesome Slew. Expect Drefong ready after Bing mishap and one to chase and catch getting a pretty clear edge on pace. As pointed out by Dave Grening, Stallwalkin' Dude is compromised considerably by his inside draw. As noted by Nick Luck, don't gloss over Schiegen's invading Ross (15-1) who travels over all kinds of footing and has fired his shot consistently this year..

Most Likely: #10 Drefong 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #2 Ross 15-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Diving Rod 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Awesome Slew 6-1 2nd


10th: 43rd Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Little has gone right for Albertrani team this meet, but perhaps it's their and Sadler's Joy's turn here..

Best Value: #3 Sadler's Joy 5-1 WON ($16.00)
Next Best: #5 Money Multiplier 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Erupt 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Idaho 2-1 6th


11th: 148th Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)

Devilishly fun edition of this summer classic with many of the division's proven commodities lining up against emergent or (potentially emergent) late season types. Lots of questions around the pace scenario and if Always Dreaming wires this, god bless him. Don't have overly clever approach to this other than to use Gunnevara who appears to have regrouped and has race on the page (Fountain of Youth) as good or better than anything anyone else has run and will be a big number. There's nearly no superfecta combination of the 12 you might craft that would be impossible..

Most Likely: #3 West Coast 4-1: Has upside yet and style that suits race flow.. WON ($14.20)
Best Value: #11 Gunnevara 20-1: Slick Calder works could translate well here.. 2nd
Next Best: #1 Cloud Computing 8-1: Has disappointed before only to rebound.. 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Good Samaritan 5-1: Dandy winner follows Elate's Alabama path.. 5th
Super Add: #10 Irap 8-1: Leviathan colt has chance to reach division leaders.. 3rd

$1 EXACTA (3-11) $178.75
$1 TRIFECTA (3-11-10) $1,122.50


P4 Grid:

8: 1-5-7-9 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
9: 10 (A), - (B), 1-2-4-5-6 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2-4 (C)
11: 1-3-11 (A), 4-5-10 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$1 'All A's' PICK FOUR (1/10/3/3) $462.50 ($231.25 for .50)


12th: 29th Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Would like to see Lady Eli's Spa farewell be successful but her stablemates could be biggest obstacle to fairytale ending..

Most Likely: #1 Lady Eli 4-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #5 Antonoe 3-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Roca Rojo 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Dickinson 6-1 2nd


13th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #9 Praise the Moon 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Prognostication 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Admirals Cove 12-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Herecomesyourman 5-1 5th


P6 Grid:

9: 10 (A), - (B), 1-2-4-5-6 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2-4 (C)
11: 1-3-11 (A), 4-5-10 (B), 6-9 (C)
12: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
13: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), 6-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 PICK FIVE (10/3/3/1,3/6) $932.25 (A-A-A-A-C)


P4 Grid:

10: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2-4 (C)
11: 1-3-11 (A), 4-5-10 (B), 6-9 (C)
12: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
13: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), 6-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 PICK FOUR (3/3/1,3/6) $410.00 (A-A-A-C)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Theres the Weaver - Lerman Spa special exacta everyone has been waiting for. Too bad I jumped off the train before

[jms62]

Cold Pick 3 into the Travers... Nice Work

[gamblin4ever]

Great job today Steve.

[pointman]

Very nice work today, Steve!

[tanner12oz]

Had a solid past 2 days up here at the spa..would have LOVED to see gunny get up but can't get greedy

[ninetoone]

Holy moly...great day Steve. Sorry i missed you!

[Kasept]

Thanks guys. Glad some things came together the way they did. Hope everyone had a great day! Racing was excellent. Huge throng on hand. Beautiful afternoon.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thanks guys. Glad some things came together the way they did. Hope everyone had a great day! Racing was excellent. Huge throng on hand. Beautiful afternoon.

Steve, great work again.