5/5 (CD): 144th Kentucky Derby Day

[Hoblin]

According to the Brisnet PPs for the Derby, these are the speed figures for some of the major prep races:

Justify Winner SA Derby 114
Bolt D'Oro 2nd SA Derby 110
Core Beliefs 3rd SA Derby ? (not in the KD PPs, obviously)
Instilled Regard 4th SA Derby 102

Vino Rosso Winner Wood Memorial 102
Noble Indy Winner La Derby 100
Magnum Moon Winner Ark Derby 99
Good Magic Winner Bluegrass Stakes 98
My Boy Jack Winner Lexington Stakes 94

Since Core Beliefs defeated Instilled Regard by 1 1/4 lengths, that would give him a speed figure of 103 or 104, good enough to beat the winners of the other five races listed above. Justify may be the best horse in the KD field, but to me the speed figures for the SA Derby look to be a little inflated.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Hoblin

According to the Brisnet PPs for the Derby, these are the speed figures for some of the major prep races:

Justify Winner SA Derby 114
Bolt D'Oro 2nd SA Derby 110
Core Beliefs 3rd SA Derby ? (not in the KD PPs, obviously)
Instilled Regard 4th SA Derby 102

Vino Rosso Winner Wood Memorial 102
Noble Indy Winner La Derby 100
Magnum Moon Winner Ark Derby 99
Good Magic Winner Bluegrass Stakes 98
My Boy Jack Winner Lexington Stakes 94

Since Core Beliefs defeated Instilled Regard by 1 1/4 lengths, that would give him a speed figure of 103 or 104, good enough to beat the winners of the other five races listed above. Justify may be the best horse in the KD field, but to me the speed figures for the SA Derby look to be a little inflated.

You left out the fastest horse in the race....

[richard burch]

Was Russell Baze ever in the derby?

[moses]

Why isn’t Good Magic getting any attention?

Has a win over several horses in the race, including BDO. Came back strong this year after a nice 2 year old season. Looks like he’s ready to fire in the Derby.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Why isn’t Good Magic getting any attention?

Has a win over several horses in the race, including BDO. Came back strong this year after a nice 2 year old season. Looks like he’s ready to fire in the Derby.

Horse is getting bet pretty good so far

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Horse is getting bet pretty good so far

Do they have the win pools available for tomorrow already? Or looking at futures pools?

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by moses

Do they have the win pools available for tomorrow already? Or looking at futures pools?

Twinspires has the advanced wagering odds posted...Good Magic is 7/1, Justify 7/2, My Boy Jack down to 5/1, and one I like Vino Rosso 17/1....of course this will all change as we go along, good luck!

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Twinspires has the advanced wagering odds posted...Good Magic is 7/1, Justify 7/2, My Boy Jack down to 5/1, and one I like Vino Rosso 17/1....of course this will all change as we go along, good luck!

Good to know, thanks. I suspect Good Magic’s number will move up a bit.

[Kasept]

LIVE DERBY ODDS

[tector]

I bought an "in case the race falls apart because of a crazy pace" saver on My Boy Jack in the last pool at 27-1. Of course he stilled needed to get in then.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Twinspires has the advanced wagering odds posted...Good Magic is 7/1, Justify 7/2, My Boy Jack down to 5/1, and one I like Vino Rosso 17/1....of course this will all change as we go along, good luck!

My Boy Jack at 5/1 seems pretty crazy. Maybe it won't seem that way after the race is run, if there is a total pace meltdown.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by cal828

My Boy Jack at 5/1 seems pretty crazy. Maybe it won't seem that way after the race is run, if there is a total pace meltdown.

I wanted My Boy Jack on the bottom of my exotics, but was thinking a
lot of the value of what I thought were 20-1 odds. Weird early money(?), but , still, shocked at 5-1

[moses]

Originally Posted by Mike

I wanted My Boy Jack on the bottom of my exotics, but was thinking a
lot of the value of what I thought were 20-1 odds. Weird early money(?), but , still, shocked at 5-1

I was thinking the same thing. Going to go with Free Drop Billy instead. His late run in the bluegrass got cut off. Would have been interesting to see if he would have made it up to 2nd if not for that.

[tanner12oz]

What's the point of drawing Tuesday and not opening up wagering till Friday?

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by moses

I was thinking the same thing. Going to go with Free Drop Billy instead. His late run in the bluegrass got cut off. Would have been interesting to see if he would have made it up to 2nd if not for that.

Zero chance he would have made it to second. I like him though..runs his race. Wont win I dont think but will meander around the track evenly to finish like 3 or 4

[moses]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Zero chance he would have made it to second. I like him though..runs his race. Wont win I dont think but will meander around the track evenly to finish like 3 or 4

I don’t think he would have gotten up to 2nd either. He was coming hard though...and give him another furlong and see what happens. I agree with you about the Derby. Decent chance he ends up somewhere in the 3-6 range, especially after the pretenders fade away late.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I have Justify at 30/1 I just vomited in my mouth and ripped my ticket up. Come on Kryptonite...DOOMED

I hope you didnt really tear it up ...lol

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

2018 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

Scully and I divided the field into these quintets last year and it was well received. In Hour 1 (2nd half hour) on today's ATR..

ON

1-Promises Fulfilled 1st
2-Justify 2nd
3-Noble Indy 5th
4-Flameaway 6th
5-Mendelssohn 9th


NEAR

6-Magnum Moon 10th
7-Good Magic 4th
8-Enticed 11th
9-Bravazo 8th
10-Solomini 20th


STALK

11-Vino Rosso 18th
12-Instilled Regard 17th
13-Audible 12th
14-Bolt d'Oro 3rd
15-Firenze Fire 7th


OFF

16-Hofburg 16th
17-Free Drop Billy 14th
18-Combatant 13th
19-Lone Sailor 15th
20-My Boy Jack 19th

Pace quads results.. Conditions look to have forced some hands to be more aggressive early (Bolt d'Oro, Firenze Fire) and problematic starts left some in trouble immediately (most notably Mendelssohn). But overall, the field lined up generally as expected, albeit spread out further than normal thanks to the slop.

[Kasept]

Plenty of May foals have run well in Derby (see below), but as a footnote, this year's (under the conditions) struggled mightily.

Combatant (May 2) 18th
Free Drop Billy (May 3) 16th
Magnum Moon (May 8) 19th
Promises Fulfilled (May 11) 15th
Mendelssohn (May 17) 20th

May foal Derby winners

War Admiral (May 2)
Lucky Debonair (May 2)
Mine That Bird (May 10)
Cannonade (May 12)
Spend A Buck (May 15)
Thunder Gulch (May 23)
Northern Dancer (May 27)
Exterminator (May 30)

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I hope you didnt really tear it up ...lol

I did not