8/18: Saratoga (Alabama; $40k C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 9f-OFF/TURF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Causeur 5th
Next Best: #13 Ding Dong Ditch 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Blasphemy 4th
Super Add: #7 Valycove 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Standard Deviation WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #4 Malthael 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Vineyard Sound 2nd
Super Add: #11 My America 4th


3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Excellent, old fashioned $50k claimer with droppers & turn-backs peppering the pot..

Most Likely: #4 J S Bach 2-1 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #2 Sir Ballantine 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Fundy's Tide 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Daddy D T 9-2 6th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Ahead of Plan 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Principled 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 He's the Souperwon 4-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Endorsed 6-1 WON ($18.60)


5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Shape Shifter 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Gypsy Janie 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Richie'slilwildcat 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Our Girl Abby 7-2 7th


P5 Grid:

1: 8-12-13 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
2: 13 (A), 4 (B), 3-11 (C)
3: 2-3-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)
4: 7 (A), 2 (B), 4-5 (C)
5: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x4x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

2: 4-13 (A), - (B), 3-11 (C)
3: 2-3-4-6 (A), 1-5-7 (B), - (C)
4: 7 (A), 2 (B), 4-5 (C)
5: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42
All A's: 2x4x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Among the 3 that have started, there isn't a pace player unless Most Mischief is better out of the gate today. And the firsters haven't shown much sharp gate action either. Mrs. Weber's Wild Medagliad'oro finished fast in bow behind Absolutely Aiden and merits the nod..

Most Likely: #5 Wild Medagliad'oro 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 Quick Entry 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Most Mischief 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Kentucky Wildcat 12-1 6th


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Hollywood Cat 4th
Next Best: #8 Lovely La La 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Cartwheel WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #13 Beach Princess 3rd


8th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

On a normal lawn, would use Daddy Is a Legend, Rushing Fall & Thewayiam and move on. But over a boggy strip, dynamics can be different. Go Noni Go figures to lead a long way over the heavy going and Rushing Fall get the edge with the stalking voyage. Those that look to come from off the pace will find it hard to accelerate..

Most Likely: #6 Rushing Fall 9-5 WON ($4.70)
Next Best: #2 Daddy Is a Legend 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Go Noni Go 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Thewayiam 7-2 7th


9th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD)

Terrific running of this long time standard with division star Midnight Bisou and cast of stakes winning/stakes placed players including emergent She's a Julie. Discussed the last few days on ATR and tweeted that stylistically, Alabama winners need to be on or near the pace. The last 6 Alabama winners (Elate, Songbird, Embellishthelace, Stopchargingmaria, Princess of Sylmar, Questing) ~ and 9 of the last 11 ~ had the lead at the quarter pole with only Royal Delta and Blind Luck coming from further back in the last 2f. Today, She's a Julie & Talk Veuve to Me figure to spar up front and recognize that Piedi Bianchi exits a sprint and may be forward early given her inside draw. Add in stalking/pressing interests of Coach Rocks and Auspicious Babe and there's a likelihood of authentic splits at the Classic trip. Midnight Bisou (7-5), Eskimo Kisses (6-1) and Figarella's Queen (15-1) are the fillies that look to have the opportunity to take advantage of any heated action on the lead. Bred for the distance Figarella's Queen has moved up since returning to dirt and gets the ideal rider for a well-timed run at potentially tiring leaders..

Best Value: #6 Figarella's Queen 15-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Midnight Bisou 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Eskimo Kisses 6-1 WON ($20.00)
Super Add: #8 Talk Veuve to Me 5-2 4th


10th: CLM, 3+, 7f-OFF/TURF

Seven are left for the finale and Brimstone looks like the pacesetter, but 7f is different than the 9f romp he exits. If Thunder & Swing take part in the early running, Bitumen can pick them all off late and may be an inviting number..

Best Value: #6 Bitumen 4th
Next Best: #10 California Swing 2nd
Exotics Use: #13 Driven by Thunder WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #16 Brimstone 3rd


P6 Grid:

5: 5 (A), 7 (B), 3-4 (C)
6: 5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
7: 3-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), 4-7-8 (C)
10: 6 (A), 10 (B), 13-16 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x3x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A's: 1x1x3x2x3x1 = 18 x $2 = $36


P5 Grid:

6: 5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
7: 3-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 2-3-6 (A), 4-7-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6-10 (A), 13-16 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 3-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 1-4-5 (B), - (C)
9: 2-3-6 (A), 4-7-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6-10 (A), - (B), 13-16 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x6x2 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SCR/CHG'S

1st - 1-2-3-4-5-6-9-11-14-15
2nd - 1-1a-2-5-6-7-9-10
5th - 2
6th - 7
7th - 1-1a-4-5-6-7-11-12
10th - 1-2-3-4-9-11-12-14-15

As of now, Sloppy and Soft (R8)..

[moses]

Thanks Steve. Really like the #2 Principled and the #4 Endorsed in Race 4. I also like the other horses you have listed...and think the #6 Borracho could improve from last time out.

Good luck today!