Venue for October 26 - Thoughts

JolyB · #1 10-21-2019, 11:43 AM

With the countdown clock at the Breeders Cup website reading 11 Days, 2 hours and 23 minutes (and counting), many of us are already thinking ahead and awaiting the announcement of the BC pre-entries on Wednesday.
That makes selecting a venue of this Saturday's contest somewhat challenging.

I think that we have several possible choices, and would welcome your thoughts as to which might be more appealing to you. None of the entries for these races are available yet.

1. Return to Belmont, where the card includes 3 stakes races, including the Grade 3 Bold Ruler.

2. Visit beautiful Keeneland for the closing day of its Fall meeting for a card that includes the Grade 2 Fayette.

3. Visit not as beautiful Youngstown, Ohio to play Mahoning Valley Race Track. They have a card which they call "The Best of Ohio", including 5 $150,000 stakes races for Ohio breds.

4. Go to Santa Anita for a card that includes the Grade 3 Autumn Miss and a chance to have a day of races over the track before the BC begins. I concede that many would say that this approach is highly overrated.

5. (?) Go somewhere else entirely (other than Kamloops thank you very much) not because it has important races worth handicapping, but just because it would be a fun thing to do on a Saturday that doesn't have a lot of exceptional alternatives.

I don't plan to make a final call until entries come out late Wednesday, but would welcome any thoughts or preferences you might have. Thank you very much.

RUFFIAN · #2 10-21-2019, 11:58 AM

Frisky Feline Votes ===> SANTA ANITA

Roamin42 · #3 10-21-2019, 02:18 PM

Frisky Feline Votes ===> SANTA ANITA

Santa Anita sounds good, get into SA mode, I agree with the Fabulous Ruffian

cal828 · #4 10-21-2019, 03:08 PM

Short priced favorites and scratches seemed to take their toll at Belmont so I would hate to see that repeated, if we decided to go there again. I'm ok with Keeneland or Santa Anita. Probably best to wait and see what the fields look like.

Real Quiet · #5 10-21-2019, 03:38 PM

I'll cast my line in the water for the short Meadowlands all turf card weather permitting.

JolyB · #6 10-23-2019, 11:14 AM

None of the entries for the relevant tracks have been posted for Saturday's races yet. I'm sure that the Racing Secretary's office at Santa Anita is going to be very busy, first announcing the pre-entries for all 14 BC races, starting at 11:30 Eastern, before getting around to drawing Saturday's card. It may be a while before those entries are available.

To respond to your post RQ, the long range weather forecast for the Northeast suggests that races at the Meadowlands will probably remain on the turf.

I have several commitments to fulfill this afternoon, but I'll try my best to have a venue announcement by sometime this evening.

cal828 · #7 10-23-2019, 08:10 PM

5 maiden races at Santa Anita and the first race only has 5 entries. Not exactly my cup of tea. Hate to flip-flop, but after seeing the fields, I think Belmont or Keenland would be best.

JolyB · #8 10-23-2019, 09:56 PM

Cal, I had been leaning toward Santa Anita, but after looking over the SA entries, I'm inclined to agree with you. The race card looked very uninspiring to me. I also don't think that there is a particular benefit to our having a "contest over the track" just before the BC. On the big weekend, the track conditions may be completely different and even the wagering menu won't be the same as normal.

As an alternative, I've decided to choose to return to Belmont Park for a 10 race card that begins at 12:45 PM Eastern time. The race card includes 3 interesting stakes races, and as an added benefit we will get to see Maximum Security compete in the Bold Ruler Stakes.

I'll post the contest threads sometime late tomorrow, in between puzzling over the BC pre-entries.

cal828 · #9 10-24-2019, 11:16 AM

"Puzzling" is right, but I try to make it a little less puzzling by limiting my plays to the last 5 or 6 races on Saturday. Just seems like too many races for me. If I try to handicap and play them all, I usually end up with information overload and don't play any of them very well. I may do that to myself any way though because instead of just the vertical plays which I usually attempt, I may try some Pick 4s, Pick 5s, etc. this year. In our BC contest I may do the same. May even try a super high 5. I'm already "broke" in the contest. Might as well go for it.

JolyB · #10 10-24-2019, 12:32 PM

I hear what you're saying Cal. If ever there was a time when a refresher course in money management was needed, the BC is that time. I counted opportunities for 2 pick 6's, 4 pick 5's, 7 pick 4's to go with the rolling pick 3's and doubles. I'm not even sure what the "Jackpot Super High 5" involves. Suffice it to say my bankroll doesn't go that high.

cal828 · #11 10-24-2019, 03:10 PM

I'm confused about those High 5 bets too. I know what a high five is, but what is an X-5, or a Z-5? Are those just high fives with different minimums or are these high fives at all? Maybe they are cross country P-5s?
Tried to find an explanation on the Santa Anita website, but never found it.

JolyB · #12 10-24-2019, 03:46 PM

I couldn't find anything on the SA site, but did find this elsewhere. Since every race on the BC card seems to have one of these, I guess that the jackpot would keep building from race to race until one unique bettor hit it and scooped the entire jackpot. That's probably why this wager has a mandatory payout on the Classic.

"... the Super High Five Jackpot wager which has gained popularity recently. The wager, a low-cost challenge, asks bettors to choose the first five horses to cross the wire in a particular race, in the correct order. A correct ticket will pay a portion of the pool, but the entire jackpot only pays out if there is just one winner, otherwise that portion of the pool rolls over into the next racing day."

It sounds to me as if this wager has a very high effective takeout and is only worth playing for the Classic, to try to grab any carryover that has accumulated.